The 2023-24 NHL season will end with either a parade or disappointment for the Colorado Avalanche.
Few teams in the league can truly say the expectations are “championship or bust,” but the club in Denver is one of them. The core players are all firmly in the prime of their careers.
The roster is retooled to patch up some cracks that showed last season. And nearly every key player on said roster is either a recent champion or has been close and views this opportunity to play for the Avs as their best chance to get a ring.
Colorado has the joint second-best betting odds to win the 2024 Stanley Cup, per local sports book PointsBet, level with Edmonton and just behind Carolina. Both of those teams have been close in recent years, but the Avalanche has done it and is loaded for a run at a second title in three seasons.
While the Avs begin the season as a no-doubt contender, there are some reasons this edition is particularly set up to succeed … and some reasons it might not work out.
Why the Avs will win the Cup
1. The best inner-circle core in the NHL
Which team has a better foursome to build around right now than Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar and Devon Toews? That is, conservatively, a top-five center, wing and defenseman, plus a defenseman who has received Norris votes in each of the past three seasons.
If those four players are healthy, any one of them can turn a series with one big night.
“The reason they can win is the quality of players they have,” TSN analyst Craig Button said.
Sometimes the simple analysis is also the correct one.
2. The best defense corps in the NHL
We dug into this on Sunday. The Avalanche has an incredible collection of talent on the blue line, enough that either Sam Girard or Josh Manson is going to be the No. 5 guy. If Bo Byram has his first fully healthy season, “the Avs have three No. 1s” could be a popular talking point by April. They could probably use one more depth player, but we’ll get to that later.
3. A rebuilt forward group
Why did the Avs win in 2022? High-end talent paired with strong depth. Why did they falter last year? Injuries … and some of the depth players weren’t at the same level. Enter Ryan Johansen, Jonathan Drouin, Ross Colton, Miles Wood and Tomas Tatar. The Avs don’t even need all five to be good, but Colton and Wood add speed and snarl to the bottom six, and Johansen can be an upgrade at center after the club struggled to replace Nazem Kadri last year. If Drouin and Tatar perform to the levels they’re capable of in the regular season, the Avs could be a decent bet to lead the NHL in goals.
4. A top-10 goalie, maybe?
Alexandar Georgiev finished seventh in the Vezina Trophy in his first season as a starter, one spot ahead of the guy he used to back up in New York (Igor Shesterkin). Very few goalies are consistent enough to bank on that level of performance annually. That said, Georgiev had a couple of strong seasons as the Rangers’ No. 2 (and a couple of so-so ones). Another strong season with the Avs would cement him as one of the league’s best. The Avs don’t need Georgiev to win a series for them, but just being steady and slightly above average could do the trick.
5. They are rested and hungry
The core guys didn’t have a great chance to repeat because of the injuries. Valeri Nichushkin is going to be motivated to prove he can still be counted on as a key contributor. Johansen slots in as an older guy teammates will want to win for. Will the longer offseason mean fewer injuries to navigate this season? If so, there’s no shortage of motivation, starting with MacKinnon’s obsessive desire to win and how that rubs off on others.
Why the Avs won’t win the Cup
1. Goalies are voodoo
This is a popular phrase to best describe how unpredictable goaltenders can be at the NHL level. Georgiev could have an OK season, and there might not be a definable reason for what is wrong. The Avs could also be good enough that OK in net still gets them to the promised land, but a huge couple of weeks from someone else’s goalie could knock them out of the tournament.
2. Defense depth?
One through six, the Avs have the best defense corps in the league. After that … could be trouble. It’s hard to get through four rounds of grueling postseason play without needing an extra defenseman or three to contribute. The team’s No. 7 right now is veteran Brad Hunt. The No. 8 is … someone unproven. Adding a dependable depth defenseman could be at the top of the shopping list near the trade deadline. Unless …
3. Goaltending depth?
Pavel Francouz’s return is a rather sizable question mark. If he can’t play at all this year, that would give the Avs more financial flexibility to potentially add another goalie (or a defenseman, or both). It’s not that Colorado needs a better insurance policy if Georgiev gets hurt, but ideally either Justus Annunen, Francouz or someone behind door No. 3 will allow the coaching staff to get its No. 1 guy a little more rest, particularly near the end of the regular season to gear up for a deep playoff run.
4. The new guys don’t click
There’s been plenty of positivity about the new forwards and how they’re fitting into the team. It’s far from a guarantee that they’ll all settle in and play up to expectations, though. Johansen and Drouin are here at discounted prices for a reason. The Avs have made smart bets on both of them, but even smart wagers don’t always cash. Both Tatar and Wood have been scratched in playoff games, for different reasons. That could be motivation, or a harbinger of things to come.
“That’s where they need to prove they are a better team,” Button said of the team’s forward depth. “That’s where they need to prove that they can win with those guys.”
5. It’s hard to win the thing
MacKinnon noted that his pal Sidney Crosby had some good teams between 2009 and 2016. It still took Crosby & Co. seven years to win a second title. The Lightning were the prohibitive favorite multiple times before breaking through. Most years, there are one or two teams that felt like they should have won the thing, but just … didn’t. It happens.
The Avs might very well be good enough to win again, but another team is just slightly better in a small-sample series. There’s a reason why even the mighty Bruins a year ago were still only a 30-40% bet to win the Cup before the playoffs began. Sometimes, it just doesn’t work out.
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