What would you say if I told you the Broncos will go as far as Vance Joseph can carry them?
I’d say the tires go flat about three blocks into Foxfield.
Funny. Come on, hear me out. Your QB1 is either Sparky Stidham; Zach Wilson, who picked up Wednesday right where he’d left off in June, dazed and confused; or a first-round rookie.
The offense figures to be every bit as volatile as Sean Payton’s mood at news conferences. Bo Nix’s on-the-job training is setting up for more hairy twists and turns than Black Bear Road in March. Buckle up.
“I loved how we began taking the ball away (last fall),” Payton said during Day 2 of what they’re calling “training camp acclimation” at Dove Valley. “I think it helped our team win. Quite honestly, that one statistic can really mask, if you will, some deficiencies.
“I don’t ever think we felt like we stopped the run well enough, as we had hoped. I think it’s gonna be important this year — just as I think it’s gonna be important that we improve on our running game. And I think that’s something we pointed out.”
Hey, other than that, no pressure, VJ. All you, baby!
If Payton’s half as smart as he keeps reminding us he is, he’ll double down on the basics this fall. Stuff that always travels well. Stuff that always will. Running the ball. Stopping the run. Defense. The eternal verities. Wanna get good? Get good at the boring stuff first.
“Kudos to them last year, just the way that they were able to overcome adversity early on in the season and ended up being one of the top-ranked defenses,” new safety Brandon Jones said earlier this week. “So now being a part of that, it’s something that … we’re able to grow on out of this year. And (we’re) definitely headed in the right direction.”
The headlines will be yapping about Bo vs. Sparky. The secret is taking as much off of their respective plates as conceivable, and doing it as early as possible.
Which brings us to VJ, the second-year defensive coordinator, the elephant in the room. Namely, how the Broncos gave up 25 points or more in seven of their 17 games last fall in Year 1 of Joseph’s second tour of duty in Denver.
There was a 70-burger in Miami, a 42-burger in Detroit, and a whole lot of takeaways in between. But as Payton himself pointed out, that last part probably isn’t sustainable, much less repeatable.
On paper, the Broncos are the anti-Buffs, the anti-Prime, in that the coaching staff should be better this fall while the talent — the proven talent, anyway — is trending down. With the former, landing former Broncos defensive back and Wisconsin DC/coach Jim Leonhard could be an absolute coup. It could also provide Payton with a quick-fire Plan B at defensive coordinator if this September starts to resemble 2023’s dumpster fire.
Although you can already hear Payton’s defense for that defense, can’t you? Joseph can only ride with the horses in his stable, and the Russell Wilson divorce helped push thoroughbreds such as safety Justin Simmons and inside linebacker Josey Jewell out the door.
Whatever you thought of Simmons as a tackler in open space, it’s still worth noting that over the eight games he missed over the previous two seasons, the Broncos gave up 30 points or more three times and 25 points per tilt.
Whatever you thought of Jewell as a pass defender, he missed just 13 tackles, per Pro-Football-Reference.com, over his final 29 appearances for the Broncos. Alex Singleton, the anchor linebacker who remains, whiffed on 22 stops over his last 34 tilts.
“I just think we’re just practicing faster,” Singleton noted on Wednesday. “I think we said it during the OTAs, but I think it’s the same thing. It’s just Year 2 with the same staff, and so it’s just going faster.”
You want to know what’s funny? Precedent actually likes VJ and continuity as a play-caller. At least in the short term.
For one thing, the Broncos won’t see one top-10 offense from ’23, in terms of efficiency — as in, points per drive — until Week 9’s trek to Baltimore (No. 5). That’s followed by a roadie to the Chiefs (No. 10), but those are the only “name” toughies, on paper, until the Week 14 bye.
And recent history, what little there is, rests in VJ’s corner, in that this is only his second NFL stop in which he’ll get a Year 2 as defensive architect.
In Year 1 as a DC in Arizona, the Cardinals gave up 27.6 points per game, which ranked 28th in the league, and 2.38 points per drive, which ranked 30th.
The next fall, 2020, Joseph’s D had shaved enough off the opposition scoring average (22.9 per game) to jump to 12th in points allowed and 11th in points allowed per drive (2.02).
“You can just really tell that guys are locked in and confident by … how vocal they are, how confident they are,” Jones observed, “and always ready for the next step.”
Who says familiarity breeds contempt? The rookies who “made it” at quarterback over their debut seasons recently all had one thing in common: The heavy lifting, by and large, was done by somebody else. Somebodies on defense, especially.
As rookies, C.J. Stroud (Houston, ’23), Brock Purdy (San Francisco, ’22) and Mac Jones (New England, ’21) played in 14 games in which their respective defense allowed 25 points or more. They went 3-11. When their opponents were held to 24 points or fewer? Said rookies went 30-7. Handing off is easy. Kneeling is fun.
Boring as heck. But fun.
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Originally Published: July 24, 2024 at 7:24 p.m.
