Bubble? What bubble? Bo Nixand Tim Patrick are a match made in Mile High Heaven.
Don’t overthink this one, Sean Payton. Nothing about a rookie quarterback is a sure thing, so you surround him with as many sure things as possible. Nix needs friends. Has a Broncos quarterback since 2020 had better friends than Patrick’s two hands?
“You get any butterflies running around Empower for the first time in forever?” I asked the Broncos’ veteran receiver Sunday night after Denver stomped what was essentially the Packers’ bench, 27-2.
The sure thing shook his head.
“I got (nervous) in Indy a little bit,” Patrick told me. “But other than that, (because of) practice, the way we practice makes it feel like game day without the fans. So it looked good.”
Sure did. Four catches. 30 yards. Nothing fancy. Not much YAC. A typical Patrick half, more or less.
The guy on the bubble saw four targets from Nix, turned two of them into first downs; converted a third-and-9 into a 14-yard gain on another; and turned yet another into a 2-yard touchdown.
“He’s going to have a great season this year,” teammate and running mate Courtland Sutton gushed. “Comeback Player of the Year is riding all over his destiny. And I can’t wait to be a part of it.”
Ah, but it’s a numbers game, you say. Can’t cut Troy Franklin, you say. Patrick is coming off two devastating leg injuries, you say. He makes too much money. He’s not fast.
Yeah, well, he was never “fast.” Jerry Jeudy had the wings of Mercury in the open field, complemented by hands of stone. Which guy do you think would be better for speeding up a rookie QB’s learning curve?
Hint: It’s the wideout who’s still here.
“Happy for him. Obviously, he’s been through a lot,” Nix said of Patrick. “It’s not easy to overcome the things that he has. And then to get out there and contribute like he did (against the Packers) is really cool to see.
How do you know Nix is a smart cookie? One, he lets his play do the talking. No catchphrases. No rambling soliloquies. He gets the ball out quickly. He gets the answer out quickly. Speak softly and move the sticks. Payton has to love that.
Two, Nix knows to look for big No. 12 in a pinch. The way Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock knew to look for No. 81, Patrick’s old jersey.
“He’s a gamer,” the rookie QB continued. “(Patrick) does a really good job when his number’s called. And it was good to see him in the end zone.”
If you’re not rooting for Patrick, check your soul. The 6-foot-4 former Utah Ute followed up a freak ACL tear during training camp 2022 by ripping up his Achilles tendon in late July 2023. Until this month, he hadn’t played an NFL snap in nearly three years.
When it comes to roster decisions, Payton has all the gushy sentiment of a Burmese python. But you can still make a good football argument for Patrick without tugging at heartstrings. Or grasping at straws.
There’s the chemistry with Nix, for starters, both at training camp and in two exhibitions. There are the metrics, confirming the attribute that No. 12 gives you more than any other wideout in orange and blue right now: reliability.
Pro Football Reference keeps this pretty simple, but telling receiver stat. It’s called “success percentage,” and basically, it’s the ratio of targets to how many of your catches made it 40% of the necessary distance on first down; 60% of the distance on second down; and 100% of the distance on third down and fourth down.
The best of the best usually land at 55%-56% and above. Stefon Diggs of the Texans has a career 57.6% rate. Brandon Aiyuk of the Niners has a career 62.2% mark; the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce, 62%.
Over the last four seasons, the Broncos have had only one wideout or tight end hit the 55% “success” mark in a season. Guess who? Patrick, who did it twice — 55.7% during the pandemic year, then 55.3% in 2021.
Nobody here’s done it since.
“You catch the first one, he has a little bit more confidence in you,” Patrick said of Nix. “So just keep catching and keep getting open.”
Sounds like the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
“Obviously, I’m happy, but I have a higher standard for myself,” Patrick said. “I’m not just trying to be a feel-good story. So it’s a step in the right direction, but you guys haven’t seen anything yet. Once I get these camp legs to go away, I’ll be way better.”
If I’m Payton, I’d take that bet. The bubble might catch Tim Patrick yet. But not if he catches it first.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.
Originally Published: August 19, 2024 at 10:58 a.m.
