Last season, the Rockies’ offense was — how should I put this? — terrible.
That’s not hyperbole when you consider that the Rockies:
• Hit .254, the second-lowest in franchise history behind the 2021 team (.249).
• Slugged .398, the first time in franchise history they finished with a slugging percentage below .400.
• Hit 149 home runs, the second-fewest for an entire season behind only the inaugural 1993 club (142).
• Hit 51 homers on the road, the second-fewest in a full season, trailing only the 2000 Rockies (49).
But that was then, and this is now. Will the Rockies hit better in 2023? Yes, because they can’t be worse. But make no mistake, these are not your father’s Blake Street Bombers.
How much better will they hit? That’s one of the key questions for a team I predict will go 71-91.
Let’s go through what I believe will be Colorado’s starting lineup when it opens the season against the Padres on Thursday at Petco Park.
1. Jurickson Profar, left field — The veteran was a late addition to the roster, signing a one-year, $7.75 million contract last week. Profar isn’t going to dramatically improve this roster, but being a switch hitter at the top of the order is a plus. In 144 games as a leadoff hitter, he’s slashed .256/.321/.402 with 15 homers, 33 doubles and three triples. He will put the ball in play and has a little pop in his bat (15 homers last season with San Diego). But his .322 career on-base percentage is a real concern, which is one reason why he didn’t get the multi-year deal he was seeking.
2. Kris Bryant, RF — Hitting second is a way to get Bryant more at-bats and have a little bit of danger at the top of the order. Despite injuries that wiped out three-fourths of his 2023 season, Bryant still hit .306 and had an excellent .376 on-base percentage. But he’s only reached 100 RBIs once in his career and the last time he topped 30 homers was in 2019 when he hit 31. He’s more valuable right now as an on-base guy than as a slugger.
3. Ryan McMahon, second base — Traditionally, a team’s best all-around hitter bats third. McMahon, who hit .246 with 20 homers and 67 RBIs last season, doesn’t match that profile, but I believe the Rockies will test McMahon in the three-hole. The Rockies believe McMahon is due for a breakout season, but he definitely needs to improve on his .238 career average with runners in scoring position.
4. C.J. Cron, first base — Colorado’s lone All-Star from last season is the team’s one bona fide slugger. Though slowed by a wrist injury in the second half of the season, Cron slashed .257/.315/.468 with 29 homers, 28 doubles, three triples and 102 RBIs in 150 games. He’s capable of hitting 30 homers and driving in 100 runs again. The Rockies will really need him to do so, although if the Rockies aren’t near .500 at the All-Star break, trade rumors will swirl.
5. Charlie Blackmon, designated hitter — He’ll turn 37 on July 1 and he’s definitely slowing down. Blackmon hit 32 homers in 2019 but combined for just 29 over the last two seasons. He did not hit a home run from July 27 through the end of last season, a 46-game homerless streak that ranks as the longest of his career. In the final year of his contract, the Rockies need him to fire up the fountains of youth.
6. Elehuris Montero, third base — The rookie is poised to break out, and if he does, the offense will get a huge boost. Montero has had a very good spring training — .314 average, .963 OPS and four homers entering the weekend — and he’s a powerful hitter. But he needs to become more disciplined to take advantage of that raw power. He launched six homers in 185 plate appearances last season, a 3.2 home run percentage that was slightly above the league average (2.9%), but his 32.4% strikeout rate was way above the league average (22.4%).
7. Yonathan Daza, center field — He doesn’t hit for power (two homers, .384 slugging last season), but he gets on base and keeps the lineup moving. He hit .301 last season and posted a .349 on-base percentage, and his 14.2 strikeout percentage was the seventh-best mark in the National League. He hit a solid .271 with runners in scoring position.
8. Elias Diaz, catcher — Which player will show up? The one who hit .246 in 2021 with 17 of his 18 homers coming in the second half of the season? Or the player who hit .228 last season with just nine homers? Diaz was awful away from Coors Field, batting .186 with just two homers. His poor performance at the plate seemed to affect him behind the plate, or maybe it was vice versa.
9. Ezequiel Tovar, shortstop — If the rookie lives up to his potential, Tovar won’t be hitting in the nine-hole for long. He slashed .318/.386/.545 with 13 homers through 66 games with Double-A Hartford last year before suffering a groin injury. Although he’s no Troy Tulowitzki or Trevor Story when it comes to launching homers, he’s got power potential. Tovar might even be in the running for NL rookie of the year, but he’ll no doubt endure some growing pains.
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