Not surprisingly, given that the Rockies are going to finish with their fourth losing season in a row and are in last place in the National League West, I’m receiving a number of emails about the future of manager Bud Black and the coaching staff. Following are two for the mailbag:

I’m not advocating for this, but considering the Rockies’ post-All-Star-break record (10-20) and generally mediocre (at best) overall record for several years, is Bud Black’s job on the line? Are any coaching or front office jobs on the line? When is enough, enough?

— Mark Newton, Denver

Why is this franchise so scared to fire the incompetent coaching staff?

— Daniel Miller, Denver

Gentlemen, let’s start off with a basic answer. I do not think that Black will lose his job.

Will the coaching staff be shuffled? I wouldn’t be surprised if there are some new faces next season, but I’m not going to speculate on who might, or might not, lose their job. Plus, it’s way too easy to lay all of the blame on the coaches.

As for Black, here’s why I don’t think his job is on the line:

He has a contract through the 2023 season and I sincerely doubt owner Dick Monfort would fire Black unless there is a conflict that I’m not aware of at this time.
Black and general manager Bill Schmidt share a solid working relationship.
Firing Black would be a public relations disaster for the team because the Rockies would be making Black a scapegoat for the current lack of talent on the team, as well as the team’s insistence to stay in-house when it comes to hiring front office personnel.
 I have asked a number of players that I know and trust and they tell me that Black has not “lost the team,” and that he still has the respect of the players. As one veteran told me: “This is on us, not on Buddy. We haven’t performed well enough to win.”
Often, a club will fire a manager in order to “shake things up,” when the team is underperforming. That was the case back in 2009 when the Rockies fired Clint Hurdle and promoted Jim Tracy. And it certainly was the case in Philadelphia earlier this year when the Phillies fired Joe Girardi and promoted bench coach Rob Thomson. At this point in the season, shaking things up won’t accomplish anything.
Unless the Rockies completely implode during the final quarter of the season and lose 100-plus games, Black will be back in 2023.

Hi Patrick. Understanding that it’s virtually impossible to forecast free-agent signings and/or injuries from now until next spring, do you expect to see Elehuris Montero and Ezequiel Tovar on the 2023 opening-day roster? It would seem Michael Toglia and Zac Veen are also positioning themselves for early call-ups if they don’t break camp with the big-league team.

— Jon, California

Jon, that’s a great question. My answer is yes, I believe that Montero and Tovar will both be on the opening-day roster next season. As long as Tovar is healthy and has a solid spring training, he’ll be the starting shortstop. Montero, who’s become a mainstay in the Rockies’ lineup since the All-Star break, will see a lot of time as a DH next season, I predict.

As for Veen and Toglia, I think they’ll debut next season but I don’t think they’ll be on the opening-day, big-league roster. The caveat is that if the Rockies make some trades during the offseason, that situation for Veen and Toglia could change.

Good day, Patrick. There were a few questionable decisions this weekend, in my opinion. Why wasn’t Brandon Crawford waved to first base with two outs and a base open, and a man on second? Why even let the count get to 3-1? (Sunday), why did Sam Hilliard tag and attempt third with two outs? What happened to the runner never making the first or third out at third base? Has it become a “who’s-on-first” routine? Thank you.

— Robert Emmerling, Limon

Hey Robert, those are two interesting strategy questions.

The first one is in regard to the Rockies’ 4-3, 10-inning win over the Giants on Saturday night.

This is what I wrote:

“(In the ninth inning) Up stepped the dangerous Brandon Crawford, who had homered earlier in the game. He worked Bard to a 3-1 count before ripping an RBI double down the left-field line to tie the game. With first base open, the Rockies chose not to intentionally walk Crawford.

“We thought about it,” manager Bud Black said. “With two outs, maybe it makes some sense, right? But I trust Daniel and I think Daniel was going to pitch around him. I didn’t see that 3-1 pitch, whether it was a strike or not. … He probably didn’t locate the pitch where he wanted to.”

I revisited the decision on Sunday morning with both Black and Bard. Bard said he was confident that he could get Crawford and figured that if he got Crawford in a 3-2 count, he could get him out with a slider. But Bard tipped his cap to Crawford for hitting a 100 mph fastball. Bard also said that if Black had signaled him to walk Crawford, he would have.

Black told me he thought about telling Bard to walk Crawford, but trusted Bard to handle the situation. For the record, I would have walked Crawford once the count reached 3-1 because Crawford was in a prime hitter’s count. But I wouldn’t have automatically walked him just because first base was open. Putting the go-ahead run on base at Coors Field is asking for trouble.

As for Hilliard’s tagging up and getting thrown out at third, it made no sense to me.

The Rockies’ franchise winning percentage is the third-worst of all active MLB teams, leading only the Marlins, who’ve won two World Series, and the Padres, who’ve won more games than the Rockies since 1993. From a strictly on-field performance standpoint, are the Rockies the least successful franchise in MLB?

— Greg, Estes Park

Greg, I checked your math and I don’t think it’s correct. According to Baseball Reference, the Rockies’ .469 winning percentage (2,186-2,471) ranks 25th since their inception in 1993. So, they have the sixth-worst record.

The worst team since 1993, by winning percentage, is Kansas City (2,076-2,575, .446). The Padres actually rank 24th (2,209-2,449, .474).

But to your point, the Rockies have been bad, yes, but they have not been the worst. Keep in mind that Seattle has not been to the playoffs since 2001. The Rockies have been to the playoffs five times in their existence.

I foresee an incredible window of opportunity for the Rockies to lock in Jose Iglesias to a long-term deal, not only as a player, but as a possible captain and coach. I believe Jose will lead the Rockies “to the promised land,” with  timely clutch hitting. This will make for a winning culture.

As MLB.com Thomas Harding recently wrote, Jose has exemplified his leadership and courage in escaping Cuba, immediately learning fluent English to enhance his communication skills, and mastering his gifted baseball skills, especially under pressure. He reminds me so much of the popular Luis Aparicio, the Hall of Famer, and longtime shortstop of the Chicago White Sox.

— Bruce Hellerstein, Denver

Iglesias has had a solid season, especially with the bat, but I wouldn’t bet on him returning. He’s a free agent and I don’t know if there is mutual interest in him returning. I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I don’t think it will. Plus, while Iglesias has a good glove and a decent arm, he lacks range.

In my opinion, it’s time for the Rockies to swing the door wide open for Tovar and the next wave of young players. I don’t see Iglesias returning to Colorado.

Patrick, why do the Rockies have such an aversion to analytics? Because of the size of the outfield at Coors, and the effects of the Coors Field hangover, wouldn’t it make a lot of sense to have a large analytics and R&D department?

— Cory, Colorado Springs

Cory, it’s incorrect to say the Rockies “have an aversion” to analytics. It is accurate, and fair, to say that they lag behind most other teams in the majors. It’s been one of the team’s major weaknesses.

Currently, the Rockies have eight total people in their analytics department, counting developers and researchers. They recently promoted Brian Jones as the new director of analytics. Jones started with the Rockies in 2002 and over the past 16 years has worked as the team’s video coordinator. Jones told me he’ll be adding “a few more people soon.”

But to your point, yes the Rockies need a strong R&D department, especially given the challenges of playing at Coors Field.

Hi Patrick! In my last letter you said that Dick Monfort needs to bring in somebody from the outside to help get the Rockies on track. I know Monfort says he is loyal to a (HUGE) fault. So my question is, is Monfort afraid that if he brings somebody in from the outside they will undo everything he did and that if it works it will make him look like he did not know what he was doing?

— Del, Lamar

Del, Monfort rarely talks to the media, so it’s difficult to gauge what his philosophy is right now. But I honestly don’t believe he’s afraid that he’ll look like he “didn’t know what he was doing” if he hired someone from outside the organization.

My theory is that Monfort is very loyal to most of his longtime front-office employees. He’s cautious by nature and he trusts what he knows. He doesn’t want to rock the boat, so to speak.

I also believe that there is a feeling that those who have been around the Rockies for years have a better understanding of the unique challenges of playing baseball at altitude.

I can understand that, to a certain extent, but I’ve said my times that the Rockies need to bring in some fresh thinking to the front office.