If the Rockies had five Kyle Freelands, perhaps Dick Monfort’s preseason prediction for a .500 ballclub would be attainable.

The southpaw is the only starting pitcher in the rotation who hasn’t fueled Colorado’s ugly 11-20 start. After tossing five scoreless innings against Milwaukee to spark Colorado to a season-high three-game win streak Wednesday, Freeland now has a 3.76 ERA that’s easily the best of the Rockies’ starters.

ROCKIES FANS SURVEY: What are your thoughts about attending games at Coors Field?

Of Freeland’s seven starts, he’s turned in five strong outings, one mediocre performance (yielding three homers and four runs to the Phillies on April 22) and one dud (seven earned runs in two-plus innings against the Pirates on April 17).

“That’s maturity,” Rockies manager Bud Black said. “He’s a veteran pitcher now and it shows in the emotional state, the mental state that he’s in… (He knows) who he is as a pitcher. He can have a rough game and then bounce back.”

The Rockies need Freeland’s consistency now more than ever.

Opening Day starter German Marquez is headed for Tommy John surgery and lost for the year. Jose Urena was designated for assignment. Rookie Noah Davis showed promise, but landed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow inflammation. Austin Gomber and Ryan Feltner have both been spotty, although the latter has shown flashes with his 4.45 ERA the second best among the team’s starters.

Antonio Senzatela is set to make his 2023 debut Friday in New York after returning from knee surgery, but besides Freeland and Senzatela, Colorado remains short on veteran big-league starters.

“There’s a lot of weight on our shoulders that we have to carry,” Freeland said. “It’s great having Senza back in the mix now. Seeing his face back around the clubhouse definitely uplifted a lot of guys.”

Freeland believes his tweaked neck, which originally occurred while lifting weights April 29, won’t be an issue going forward after it cut his Wednesday start short at 62 pitches.

“I was working in-and-out with my pitches, keeping them off balance,” Freeland said. “That’s frustrating because I thought I had something special going there. But it is what is, and I’ll get the neck right moving forward.”

Aside from Freeland’s one blowup against the Pirates — who enter Thursday with the second-best record in the National League — the southpaw has been flashing shades of his 2018 self. That’s when he finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting and turned in a club-record 2.85 ERA (Marvin Freeman posted a 2.80 ERA in 1994 but that record is unofficial as he didn’t meet the innings minimum due to the strike-shortened season).

Freeland’s key is inducing weak contact. In that vein, here’s a look at how his small-but-promising sample size in 2023 stacks up to what he did in 2018:

• Freeland doesn’t overpower hitters, and doesn’t get a lot of swing-and-miss. He ranks in the 8th percentile there in 2023, per Baseball Savant, and the average velocity of his fastball (which he throws about half the time) is just 89 miles per hour, which is the fifth percentile. By comparison, in 2018, Freeland was 28th percentile for whiff percentage and 32nd percentile for fastball velocity.

• When he’s at his best, he’s leaning into mixing speed and location to keep hitters guessing and off-balance. In 2018 his hard-hit rate was elite at 29.2%, ranking in the league’s 91st percentile; this year it’s 35.9%, a little better than league average.

• In ’18 his soft-contact percentage was 15.6%, per Fangraphs, and this year it’s 17.1%.

• And finally, Freeland isn’t giving away free passes. His walk rate is a career-low 5.3% this year; that rate has decreased every season of his career, down from 9.2% as a rookie and 8.3% in ’18.

Friday’s Pitching Matchup

Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela (2023 debut) at Mets RHP Kodai Senga (3-1, 4.15 ERA)

5:10 p.m. Friday, Citi Field

TV: ATTRM

Radio: 850 AM/94.1 FM

Senzatela makes his first start since suffering a torn ACL on Aug. 18, 2022, against the Cardinals. The numbers from his two rehab starts at Triple-A Albuquerque are ugly (0-1, 9.95 ERA, seven strikeouts, three walks) but the defense behind him was not good. The Rockies liked the way he was throwing the ball. He’s fared well against the Mets, going 2-2 with a 2.88 ERA in five career games (four starts). He’s 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two career starts at Citi Field.

Senga suffered his first career major league loss April 26 vs. Washington. He pitched five innings, allowing two runs on five hits, with four walks and seven strikeouts. He is only pitching about once a week because manager Buck Showalter wants to stick to the routine Senga followed when he pitched in his native Japan. Senga has 32 strikeouts through his first five big-league games, tied with Noah Syndergaard and Nolan Ryan for the fourth-most in Mets history. Senga’s 32 strikeouts are the sixth-most by a Japanese-born pitcher through their first five career games.

Pitching probables

Saturday: Rockies LHP Austin Gomber (2-4, 7.57) at Mets RHP Tylor Megill (3-1, 4.11), 2:10 p.m., ATTRM

Sunday: Rockies RHP Ryan Feltner (2-2, 4.45) at Mets TBA, 11:40 a.m., ATTRM

Monday: Rockies LHP Kyle Freeland (3-3, 3.70) at Pirates RHP Mitch Keller (3-1, 3.32), 4:35 p.m., ATTRM

Want more Rockies news? Sign up for the Rockies Insider to get all our MLB analysis.