For a draft-and-build organization, the Rockies have proven they know how to identify a bat that can slug at 20th and Blake, from Helton and Tulowitzki, to Arenado, Story and Blackmon.

But when it comes to selecting and developing starting pitchers, success has been much more elusive for Colorado, especially during the tenures of ex-general manager Jeff Bridich and current GM Bill Schmidt, who has long overseen the draft for the franchise.

Hence the importance of this year’s draft, which begins Sunday at 5 p.m. Operating from their spring training headquarters at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale, Ariz., the Rockies select at No. 9 overall in the first round of a draft critical to addressing the club’s dearth of starting pitching prospects.

“The Rockies have drafted hitters well, speaking generally, for the better part of 20 years and beyond,” observed Baseball America senior writer Kyle Glaser. “And they’ve had times when they’ve drafted pitching well, but it’s no secret it’s been a struggle over the last eight years or so drafting homegrown pitching.

“They’ve had spurts where they’ve drafted well — you look back at the stretch at the start of the last decade where they drafted Tyler Anderson, Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland all in the first round — and prior to that they had the Jeff Francis, (second-rounder) Aaron Cook and Jason Jennings group. But those sort of high pitching picks haven’t shown up (at Coors Field) lately.”

To Glaser’s point, Colorado’s pitching problems in the first rounds of the draft are hard to sugarcoat. All four selected since Freeland went No. 8 overall in 2014 (not counting last year’s first-round arm, Gabriel Hughes) haven’t panned out.

Ryan Rolison, the club’s pick at No. 22 overall in 2018, has a 4.56 ERA in 54 minor-league starts and, battling inconsistencies and injury, has yet to debut. The previous first-round pitching selection, prep right-hander Riley Pint at No. 4 overall in 2016, washed out as a starter with no control, retired, and has a 6.56 ERA this year as a reliever in Triple-A. Both of the first-round arms Colorado took between Pint and Freeland — Mike Nikorak and Robert Tyler — failed to reach Double-A before retiring.

Those first-round misses encapsulate Colorado’s inability to build a homegrown rotation around Freeland, German Marquez (acquired in trade with Tampa Bay) and Antonio Senzatela (international signee). They are also why the margin for error this weekend is slimmer than ever as the Rockies attempt to close the gap between themselves and the rest of the National League West.

The Rockies need pitchers, and fast, to pair with the club’s rising crop of promising young homegrown positional prospects that recently debuted (Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle) or are coming up in the next couple years (Zac Veen, Drew Romo, Benny Montgomery and Sterlin Thompson, to name a few). It’s a window the team can’t afford to squander if the franchise is to get back into contention.

“It’s no fun going through what we’re going through right now with the injuries and the struggles in certain areas with the big-league club,” Rockies senior director of scouting Marc Gustafson said. “It’s reality and it’s what’s happening right now. But there’s optimism for the future, because what’s underneath the surface is pretty damn special.”

Unfortunately for the Rockies’ needs, this isn’t a deep pitching draft. It’s heavy on bats and specifically high school shortstops, including Eaton star Walker Martin. (Indications are the Giants are heavily interested in Martin at No. 16 overall).

“There’s three college pitchers and probably one high school pitcher who would merit discussion for that No. 9 overall pick, but I just don’t know how many are going to get to the Rockies at No. 9,” MLB Pipeline senior writer Jim Callis said. “There should be at least one of them there, and all signs would point toward them taking a pitcher but you never know — you could also see where they might be inclined to say, ‘Geez, there’s not really a sure-thing pitcher here, we’re better off going with a hitter.’”

The draft’s consensus top prospect, LSU right-hander Paul Skenes (formerly at Air Force), won’t be around when the Rockies pick at No. 9. That leaves a trio of other highly-rated right-handers — Wake Forest’s Rhett Lowder, Tennessee’s Chase Dollander and Oregon prepster Noble Meyer — who could be on the board at No. 9.

Meyer might not be under consideration for an organization perhaps still a bit gun-shy from the Pint selection. But on the flip side, the organization’s pressing pitching concerns could make the Rockies decide to roll the dice.

“I just don’t see them taking a high school arm at nine,” one MLB agent said. “So they’re not going to take Meyer there. Just too much risk for them that high in the draft. The hard question is, if those other pitchers are gone, what are they going to do? Because there’s a huge gap between the top four arms and all the other arms in the draft.”

Despite their pressing pitching needs, that’s how the Rockies could end up drafting a bat, as they have with six of their last seven first-round picks dating back to 2019.

Or, the Rockies could fiddle with the bonus money as the club did last year, when they selected Hughes at No. 10 overall. The Gonzaga right-hander, who was not projected to go that high, signed for $4 million — $983,000 under the slot value of the pick.

Schmidt and the Rockies then dispersed the excess money saved from signing Hughes to other draft picks, signing them at above-slot. That included giving $148,700 above-slot to No. 38 overall pick Jordan Beck, $255,200 extra to prep right-hander Jackson Cox in the second round, and $109,200 extra to right-hander Connor Staine in the fifth round.

On the back-end of draft-day negotiations between clubs and agents, this strategy — which could be employed by the Pirates at No. 1 overall Sunday, when they may pass over Skenes in favor of cutting a deal with one of the top high school prospects — allows a team to potentially increase the number of renowned prospects in their haul by getting higher-rated players to fall to them. Those players and their agents would spurn interest from other clubs before getting picked, and sign for over-slot with the team that targeted them.

“Instead of getting one A and a couple B-minuses, this allows you to go out and grab an A-minus and a couple B-pluses,” the MLB agent explained.

Schmidt acknowledged paying the top pick under-slot “has been part (of our philosophy). We have to see where we are when we get lined up (on draft day) and we’ll figure out the way to get the most bang for our buck.”

While who Colorado will take remains uncertain, what is likely is the Rockies not exceeding their bonus pool allotment of $11,909,800. In the 11 drafts with bonus pool rules, the Rockies have never exceeded their pool, one of two teams to never do so. One MLB scout said that puts Colorado at a competitive disadvantage, considering 23 teams outspent their pools in 2022. Within the division, the Dodgers and Giants have done so every year.

Clubs that outspend their allotment by zero to five percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, teams lose future picks. No club has ever exceeded the five percent overage, but most head into the draft with that excess money built into their books. Schmidt said the Rockies “will see” about exceeding the club’s limit this year, but industry experts doubt the Rockies will.

“The Padres operate like that 4.99 percent is built in already, and so do the Giants and Dodgers,” the MLB agent said. “It handicaps the Rockies immediately inside of the draft… You’ve effectively removed X amount of the bonus pool you could be spending, because the other teams in their division are willing to do it.”

The Rockies’ inability to sign top-tier starting pitching via free agency, plus the unique variable of playing at mile-high elevation, makes drafting the right pitchers doubly important.

Call it the Mike Hampton Scar. Ever since the Rockies offered the big-name free agent southpaw record money in 2001, and he subsequently bombed, they’ve been reticent to shell out the contracts required to land premier free-agent starters. On the other side of that coin, free-agent pitchers don’t see the challenges that come with pitching at 5,280 feet as a smart career move.

With all that in mind, Glaser said the Rockies would be wise to take a page out of the draft playbook of three other clubs that are more fiscally conservative in their major-league payrolls than the Rockies: the Guardians, Brewers and Marlins. Those teams all have at least one playoff appearance over the past three seasons while riding strong starting pitching, much of it homegrown.

Flipping major-leaguers for pitching prospects before the Aug. 1 trade deadline has to be part of the Rockies’ plan, too, if they want to fast-track the restock of their arms on the farm. Colorado already pulled off one such trade last month, flipping Mike Moustakas to the Angels for right-handed prospect Connor Van Scoyoc.

Schmidt said the team is looking at all options, and watching other clubs closely, as the Rockies use the draft to try to find the club’s identity again amid a playoff drought now in its fifth summer.

“We study everything that’s going on within the industry, we look at trends, and we look at all of the 29 other teams to see what they’re doing,” Schmidt said. “We’re not in a silo that we have this all figured out and we don’t think we’re smarter than anybody else. We’re constantly evaluating what other people do.

“Our core philosophy (with the first-round pick) is always going to be the same — take the best player available for the organization.”

Rockies’ Options at No. 9

Colorado has a Top 10 pick for a fourth straight year and pitching is likely the top priority.

RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee: After a dazzling sophomore season (10-0 with a 2.39 ERA), Dollander scuffled this year with a 4.75 ERA in 17 starts. It could be an arm slot issue; the stuff is all there with a plus-fastball up to 99 and a plus-slider.

RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest: He’s a higher-ranked prospect than Dollander and Meyer, so there’s a smaller chance he’ll be around at No. 9. If he is, the two-time ACC pitcher of the year who led Division I with 15 wins this year makes a lot of sense.

RHP Noble Meyer, Jesuit (Oregon): The Rockies might steer clear of Meyer simply because of the risk associated with high school pitchers in the first round, but the 6-foot-5 Meyer has the frame and projectable velocity, already hitting triple digits.

RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida: In the MLB Pipeline rankings, Waldrep is the next-highest rated pitcher at No. 19 after Dollander at No. 9. His three-pitch power mix could make him a candidate for the Rockies to draft and sign under-slot.

LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy (Mass.): Another candidate to rise up to No. 9 and sign under-slot, White is the highest-rated southpaw prospect in the draft; 6-foot-5 with a high-90s heater and plus curveball.

OF Enrique Bradfield Jr., Vanderbilt: The Rockies are in on Bradfield, who is also a candidate for an under-slot signing at No. 9. Bradfield has elite speed and defensive range. Don’t be surprised if they draft Bradfield, then use some of that money to go after a pitcher like prep right-hander Charlee Soto (Reborn Christian in Florida) at No. 46.

Starters In The System

A glance at the highest-regarded starting pitchers who are currently in the Rockies’ system.

RHP Gabriel Hughes: Double-A, 6.26 ERA in 14 minor league starts

RHP Jaden Hill: High-A, 7.51 ERA in 22 minor league starts

RHP Jackson Cox: Low-A, 8.33 ERA in 9 minor league games (8 starts)

LHP Carson Palmquist: High-A, 3.61 ERA in 11 minor league starts

LHP Joe Rock: Double-A, 4.51 ERA in 35 minor league games (33 starts)

RHP Connor Staine: Low-A, 5.52 ERA in 13 minor league starts

RHP Chris McMahon: Double-A, 4.87 ERA in 44 minor league games (40 starts)

LHP Sam Weatherly: High-A, 4.69 ERA in 20 minor league games (18 starts)

Colorado’s 1st Rounders Since 2020

How first-round picks from the last three drafts are faring; Bill Schmidt was GM in 2021 and ’22, Jeff Bridich was GM for the ’20 draft.

RHP Gabriel Hughes, No. 10 in 2022: After throwing only three innings last summer, Hughes’ introduction to pro ball has been rough with a 5.50 ERA in eight starts for High-A Spokane, and an 8.25 ERA in five starts for Double-A Hartford.

OF Sterlin Thompson, No. 31 in 2022: He hit .307 across two levels last summer, and has been tearing it up this year with a .392/.458/.650 slash line for High-A Spokane, with six homers and a 1.108 OPS.

OF Jordan Beck, No. 38 in 2022: After showing promise in his debut summer, Beck’s built on that early pro progress this year, slashing .289/.377/.560 with promising power (17 homers and 71 RBIs) for High-A Spokane.

OF Benny Montgomery, No. 8 in 2021: A career .294 hitter in 136 minor-league games, Montgomery is showing elite bat-to-ball skills at the lower levels when he puts it in play, but still needs to cut down on the K’s.

OF Zac Veen, No. 9 in 2020: The top overall prospect in the Rockies system was cruising and played in last year’s Futures Game, but is sidelined the rest of the year after season-ending wrist surgery in June.

C Drew Romo, No. 35 in 2020: The presumed franchise catcher of the future, Romo is being tested this season in Double-A Hartford, where the elite defender is slashing .244/.284/.415 with four homers.