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Denver Nuggets vs. Phoenix Suns: Who has the edge, five things to watch and predictions

As the Denver Nuggets enter the second round of the NBA playoffs for the fourth time in five years, a breakdown of their matchup against the Phoenix Suns:

Who has the edge?

Backcourt: Jamal Murray needed just five games to remind everyone how special he can be in the postseason. Yet Devin Booker’s play in the first round teetered on insanity. His 37.2 points per game, on 60% shooting, is the type of efficiency that will haunt Nuggets coach Michael Malone. Fortunately for the Nuggets, they’re far better equipped to handle Booker (and Chris Paul) than the Clippers were. In Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown and Christian Braun, Denver has three physical guards to throw at Booker. In contrast, while Paul George and Kawhi Leonard sat with injuries, the Clippers tried Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Norm Powell and Bones Hyland on Booker. Surprise: it didn’t work. Edge: Suns, slightly

Wings: When you acquire one of the NBA’s all-time scorers at the trade deadline, you instantly vault yourself into title contention. It doesn’t matter that Kevin Durant’s played just 13 games with the Suns. His ability to shred defenses, particularly when paired with Booker, is terrifying. The Nuggets know him well. Brown was teammates with Durant in Brooklyn, and Peyton Watson is friends with him off the court. They know that he prefers going left, yet that only goes so far in terms of stopping him. This will be Aaron Gordon’s matchup. His size, strength and athleticism will be essential to living in Durant’s space. If Gordon can minimize Durant’s impact, he’ll have done his job. If Gordon gets into foul trouble, it may mean Jeff Green, Braun or even (gasp!) Watson gets the call. And the Suns still need to stop Gordon on the glass and Michael Porter Jr. on the wing. Durant raved about Porter on Friday, deeming him an X-factor for the series. Due to Phoenix’s depth, old friend Torrey Craig will play a bigger role than you might expect. Edge: Suns, slightly.

Big men: Is Nikola Jokic playing mind games by publicly touting Deandre Ayton as a difficult matchup? The guess is no. There’s a healthy mutual respect there. Jokic appreciates how Ayton has focused on his role rather than worrying about his place within Phoenix’s depth chart. But this series is made for Joker, who averaged 31 points, 16.5 rebounds and 12 assists vs. the Suns this season. If the Timberwolves backlogged the paint in the first round, it will be the opposite this round with ample room to roam. Length (or defense) isn’t necessarily Phoenix’s strength. Expect an aggressive Jokic to do his work early and try to land Ayton in foul trouble. Edge: Nuggets

Bench: The Suns’ depth is hanging out somewhere in Brooklyn after the Durant trade robbed Phoenix of some key pieces. As a result, the Nuggets’ bench may play an outsized role in this series. Forget that the Suns’ starters have already logged significant minutes. Phoenix wasn’t deep to begin with. Between Braun, Brown and Green, the Nuggets may be able to take advantage of some beleaguered legs, especially as the series gets deeper. Edge: Nuggets

Coaching: Flash back to the 2010-11 season, and guess who you’ll find on Monty Williams’ coaching staff in New Orleans? That’d be current Nuggets coach Michael Malone. Will Williams decide to help off Gordon and throw double-teams in Jokic’s direction? Will Malone insist Jokic play at the level of the screen in pick-and-roll, rather than get carved apart like what happened two seasons ago? Between these two offensive juggernauts, this series will likely come down to defense, and Denver might have better personnel for the job. Edge: Even.


Five things to watch

1. The UK Connection

In a theme that’s spanned nearly the entire NBA Playoff bracket, this series will feature a pair of former Kentucky stars in Jamal Murray and Devin Booker trading haymakers. While it’s unlikely the two one-and-done Wildcats — drafted a year apart, but never teammates — will match up often on the court, there’s little doubt both will factor heavily into their teams’ fortunes. The similarities go beyond the UK connection, of course, with both three-level one-on-one scorers with established track records as high-level playoff performers who exhibit no fear under the intense heat of the playoff spotlight. If you love high-degree-of-difficulty shot-making, these two will deliver.

2. Total eclipse of the Suns

Speaking of Jamal Murray, the Blue Arrow absolutely has to be licking his chops at the prospect of getting seven games vs. the Suns — a team he’s torched repeatedly throughout his career. Murray’s career points-per-game average against Phoenix (21.1) is higher than against any other NBA team. This isn’t a volume thing, either, as his shooting percentages over 20 games (50.5% from field, 46.8% from 3, 87.3% from the free throw line) spell out in bold blue ink. As does his career record vs. the Suns: 17-3. There is, of course, one tiny caveat: None of those games came against last year’s top seed in the Western Conference or this year’s edition post-Kevin Durant trade.

3. Jokic + Ayton = Love

While there may be a heated playoff rivalry brewing between the Nuggets and Suns — Suns in 4 Guy remains a B-List celebrity in the Valley of the Sun — you wouldn’t know it listening to Nikola Jokic and DeAndre Ayton. Do the opposing big men want to battle in the paint or engage in one long bro-hug? Given how much praise they heap on each other at every turn, it’s hard to tell sometimes. The latest came from Jokic following Denver’s practice Friday morning: “He’s a talented player. He never have opportunity or chance to be the main guy … but I think he has the talent for that.” High praise from the Joker … which will no doubt be returned in kind from Ayton sometime soon.

4. No longer in Payne?

For the first time since the NBA Covid bubble in Orlando, the Nuggets are completely healthy going into the second round, with each of their key pieces firing on all cylinders. Can the same be said of the Suns? Sorta. Backup point guard Cameron Payne played three minutes in the Suns’ closeout Game 5 against the Clippers, the first time he’d seen the floor in two weeks due to low back soreness. While that might not seem like a particularly big development to some, any additional options from the paper-thin Suns bench is a welcome turn of events for head coach Monty Williams, who was forced to play his starters heavy minutes in the first round.

5. The same, but different

If one was to search for the high point of Denver’s regular season, it might just be the Nuggets’ dramatic victory over the Suns before an electric Christmas night crowd — punctuated by Aaron Gordon’s nasty dunk over Landry Shamet. Try as one might to draw a direct line between that result and this matchup, the truth is this is a completely different team with Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson out, and Kevin Durant in. The two teams played twice over the final two weeks of the regular season, with the Suns winning both, but the Nuggets were without Jokic and Murray each time. Translation: Throw out anything that happened in the regular season. This is a whole new ballgame.


Predictions

Mike Singer, Nuggets beat reporter: Depth matters, as does homecourt advantage. Without a towering frontline like Minnesota, expect Joker to work some magic. Nuggets in seven.

Mark Kiszla, sports columnist: You like fireworks? This is the series for you. Nikola Jokic or Kevin Durant might drop 40 points on any given night. And first team to 125 might not be good enough to win any given game. Suns in six.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Calvin Booth stockpiled all those long, tough 3-and-D guys — KCP, Bruce Brown — for a reason. Yet to beat the Suns, you’re probably going to have to outscore KD and Booker late. Fortunately, Denver’s got one of the few NBA rosters that actually can. Nuggets in seven.

Ryan McFadden, sports reporter: You can make a strong argument the winner of this series will represent the West in the NBA Finals. The Nuggets have a deeper team and Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are playing elite basketball. But I’m leaning on the experience and scoring of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. This should be an exciting series but Phoenix’s starting five is going to edge out the Nuggets. Suns in seven.

Matt Schubert, deputy sports editor: Kevin Durant and Devin Booker may be two of the top three players in this series, but the Nuggets likely have six of the next eight. Is that enough to overcome the Suns’ supernova? The answer here is yes. Barely. Nuggets in seven.

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Series schedule

GameLocationDateTimeTV
Game 1Phoenix at DenverSaturday, April 296:30 p.m.TNT
Game 2Phoenix at DenverMonday, May 18 p.m.TNT
Game 3Denver at PhoenixFriday, May 58 p.m.ESPN
Game 4Denver at PhoenixSunday, May 76 p.m.TNT
*Game 5Phoenix at DenverTuesday, May 9TBDTNT
*Game 6Denver at PhoenixThursday, May 11TBDESPN
*Game 7Phoenix at DenverSunday, May 14TBDTBD

* If necessary 

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