The defending champions were dealt a blow to their hopes of securing the No. 1 seed in the West late this week, when a series of missed opportunities allowed the Clippers to pull out a messy two-point win. It could’ve been the beginning of the end of Denver’s regular-season pursuits — except its two adversaries handed back the advantage with losses 24 hours later.
The Nuggets lost control of their own destiny, then regained it. If they win their last four games, they’ll retain home-court advantage until the NBA Finals, at least.
As they keep trading places with the Timberwolves and Thunder, an astronomical six feasible first-round opponents are still in the running also. Resounding parity in the Western Conference has resulted in some watered-down reputations for talented teams in the middle of the standings. There’s a pick-your-poison element to the constantly reshuffling bracket, and the No. 1 seed won’t even necessarily be rewarded with an easier matchup.
Here are the candidates to watch this week.
New Orleans Pelicans: Nuggets went 2-1
The most overlooked playoff team in the West when they’re at their best, the Pelicans have successfully dodged the kind of tailspin that befell them halfway through last season. Credit Zion Williamson’s availability for that. He has passed the 65-game threshold for the first time in his career after appearing in 29 the last two seasons combined. Williamson has long been regarded as a flawed but tantalizing talent, and he’s positioned for his first opportunity to lead New Orleans on a playoff run. The Pelicans have great 3-point shooting (sixth in the NBA at 38.1%); elite wing defense to test Jamal Murray; and the best bench in the West (3.2 net rating) to challenge Denver’s inconsistent second unit. But like the Nuggets, their second scoring option has missed a chunk of games on the doorstep of the postseason due to a leg injury. Whether or not Brandon Ingram is healthy, here’s the stat that matters most: New Orleans is the only team that allowed a triple-double to Jokic in every meeting this season. Jokic averaged 29.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, 14.7 assists and a block on 59% shooting.
Sacramento Kings: Nuggets went 1-3
Despite the Nuggets’ struggles against Sacramento, this is probably one of the teams they wouldn’t mind facing in the first round. The Kings are a pedestrian 15-14 since Feb. 4. That top-ranked offense that made them the breakout darlings of the NBA last season? Down more than two points per 100 possessions this year while scoring around the league largely increased. Only the Raptors, Grizzlies, Blazers and Wizards have had bigger regressions in offensive rating from 2022-23. Domantas Sabonis was a playoff pariah last spring, but his matchup with Jokic would be an entertaining one. Like New Orleans, this is still technically plausible as a 1-8, 2-7 or 3-6 series, but the Kings are trending down toward the play-in cellar with standout sixth man Malik Monk injured.
Dallas Mavericks: Nuggets went 2-1
Four teams have been playing musical chairs for the fifth through eighth seeds, and two of them seem much scarier from a top-end talent standpoint. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both capable of winning a game (or four) single-handedly, though Denver can take comfort in the knowledge that Irving has already cashed in his only “left-handed midrange hook shot buzzer-beater” token for this season. The Mavericks have strung together two seven-game win streaks since the start of February, bolstered by trade deadline additions PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford. Not a fun first-round opponent, but if they keep up their recent pace, they should earn a 4-5 matchup with the Clippers. A battle of Balkan BFFs would have to wait until the second round at least. Maybe longer if Denver slips out of No. 1.
Phoenix Suns: Nuggets went 1-2
File Kevin Durant and Devin Booker in the “Doncic-Irving” category of terrifying offensive duos that transcend the team’s overall performance. Oh, and Bradley Beal’s health seems to have finally turned a corner lately. Oh, and it turns out Grayson Allen is the most efficient 3-point shooter in the NBA (47% this season). Oh, and Jusuf Nurkic looks like a better fit than Deandre Ayton. You would think the Suns were competing for the top seed, rather than to avoid the play-in. But they’ve been way more mediocre than the sum of their parts all season, with the notable exception of their two recent wins at Ball Arena. Like last year in the second round, you have to squint to see Phoenix beating Denver in a best-of-seven, but Durant and Booker are at least capable of stretching a first-round series longer than the Nuggets want it to go. The Suns’ remaining schedule features the Timberwolves and Clippers twice each, so there’s a path toward them being a harrowing seventh seed.
Los Angeles Lakers: Nuggets went 3-0
LeBron James vs. Steph Curry is a delectable winner-take-all elimination game, but the Lakers might be making a last-second leap out of the 9-10 matchup. If they don’t supplant Sacramento, they’ll only be potentially relevant to a top-seeded Denver. “Nobody wants the Lakers in the first round or Golden State in the first round,” Jokic said in February, capturing the healthy fear of James and Curry still harbored by an entire generation. The Nuggets’ active win streak against both begs to differ.
Golden State Warriors: Nuggets went 4-0
Curry vs. the Nuggets this season: 22.8 points per game (3.6 fewer than his season average), 30 for 80 from the field (37.5%), 15 for 48 from 3-point range (31.3%). Jokic vs. the Warriors: 31.8 points per game (5.4 more than his average), 13 rebounds, 9.8 assists. Golden State is getting hot at the very end, but it might not make any difference against the champs.
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