The Denver Nuggets have been one of the most successful NBA franchises at drafting in the last decade, a reputation that has endured across multiple general manager tenures.
Nikola Jokic is the crown gem, of course, as the most accomplished second-round pick in league history. But the roster is littered with picks that have aged like wine.
Jamal Murray has turned out to be one of the best players from the 2016 class. Michael Porter Jr. was a risk worth taking at No. 14 in 2018. And since Tim Connelly passed the torch to Calvin Booth, Denver has discovered above-average results in late first-rounders Christian Braun and Peyton Watson.
That will be the challenge again this year — a challenge that feels more vital than ever, with the salary cap looming over the Nuggets’ championship window. They possess the 28th overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, which begins with the first round Wednesday (6 p.m. MT, ESPN). They’ll select 56th overall Thursday in the second round.
Booth has a reputation for valuing more experienced college players, a trend that colors the following list of potential draft targets. In a weak class, the 56th pick probably won’t mean much. The late first-rounder is the one that matters.
As of Wednesday morning, league sources believe the Nuggets are unlikely to trade out of the draft to acquire a player using the 28th pick. If that proves to be the case, here are 10 names to watch on draft day:
DaRon Holmes II, Dayton
No other prospect has been linked to Denver as much as Holmes, a 6-foot-9 small-ball center who can stretch the floor. Whether or not the Nuggets made a promise to him is unclear, but he’s unlikely to be available at No. 28 regardless. It’s believed that Connelly and the Timberwolves (conveniently, the No. 27 pick) will be among the teams to show interest in Holmes before the Nuggets. If he is on the board still, he should be one of the players Denver considers taking, but it’s certainly not automatic that he’ll be the pick. Holmes led college basketball in scoring as a roll man last season, dramatically improved his 3-point shooting (38.6%) and continued development as an above-the-rim threat. The Nuggets could benefit from a shot-blocker and dunker at backup five. His measurements for a center are valid worries, however.
Jaylon Tyson, California
If the Nuggets want more driving in their offense, particularly from their bench, then Tyson makes perfect sense at No. 28. After transferring from Texas Tech, he had a lot of weight on his shoulders for a bad Cal team, so the overarching question with him is how to delineate between high usage and empty calories. Nonetheless, there’s a lot to like about Tyson’s ball-handling and downhill attack mindset for a team that needs more players who are comfortable generating for themselves. His defense is a work in progress for a 6-foot-6 wing, but Denver traditionally loves the potential that’s packaged within positional size.
Enrique Freeman, Akron
The MAC Player of the Year and NCAA leader in rebounding last season (12.9 per game), Freeman worked out with the Nuggets during the pre-draft process. He turns 24 in July after a five-year college career that started as a walk-on with an academic scholarship. Freeman is known as a hard worker with a physical style at 6-7. He’s an exceptional help defender who shows serious on-ball promise as well. But he’s low on most mock drafts due to his offensive limitations. He was used as a post-up center in college, which won’t work at his size in the NBA. The Nuggets could probably trade back and still snatch him in the second round (or trade up from 56), but Booth also has a history of eschewing the conventional wisdom of mock projections.
Ajay Mitchell, UC Santa Barbara
At 6-3, Mitchell has suitable size for an NBA guard and can create off the dribble, a trait Denver’s roster needs. The 22-year-old sees and manipulates the floor effectively. He has a solid floater and likes to get to his mid-range jumper. Like Holmes, he shot the 3-pointer efficiently in his final college season (39.3%) after struggling in previous years, raising questions of sustainability. Mitchell is another player frequently projected around the middle of the second round, in between Denver’s picks, but he has worked out with the Nuggets.
Baylor Scheierman, Creighton
It seems like over the last few weeks, Scheierman has been mocked to pretty much every title contender with a pick late in the first round. He’s the quintessential plug-and-play role guy every win-now team (including Denver) takes a look at, largely thanks to his time-tested stroke. Scheierman is a great movement shooter who made 39% of his 3s at high volume during a five-year college career between South Dakota State and Creighton. His defensive fit is hazy at best, but he rebounds well for a wing.
Tyler Smith, G League Ignite
Projected in the mid to late 20s, Smith is an outlier candidate in that he’s still a teen. He was mocked to the Nuggets at No. 28 by Yahoo! this week, and he worked out with them recently. The 6-9 forward often exists on the perimeter, knocking down spot-up or pick-and-pop 3s effectively (at NBA distance, no less). He’s not a ball-in-hand offensive player, doing most of his interior scoring as a cutter. Draft experts view defense as a major concern, but Smith has the athleticism to develop there. Does Denver have time for a project?
Isaiah Collier, USC
Joining Smith in the under-20 tier is Collier, who was once the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class. His draft stock suffered from a wobbly freshman season, but there are still teams toward the back of the lottery that might bite on him. If he’s available in the 20s, the 6-3 guard is probably worth the risk as one of few prospects in this class with star potential.
KJ Simpson, Colorado
Basketball aficionados in Colorado don’t need to be told this, but Simpson is a gamer. He has a tight handle, a great eye for when to attack in transition and unusually good rebounding skills for an undersized guard. His athleticism doesn’t seem to be offsetting the typical size concerns in draft projections, but someone will probably be willing to take a gamble on Simpson late in the first round. The Nuggets have worked him out, but do they like the local stud enough to view him as an immediate answer at backup point guard?
Kel’el Ware, Indiana
One of the toughest-to-project prospects on this list, Ware possesses a set of traits that could make him a steal late in the first round if he’s available. He’s a 7-footer with a 7-4 wingspan. He knocks down 3s (at low volume) and finishes with remarkable efficiency at the rim. But his feel for the game has been roundly questioned by draft analysts, as has his work ethic. Whether it’s Denver or another contender, the Oregon transfer might end up being the most talented player picked in the 20s.
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
Duke’s star center has a versatile face-up game with better-than-average dribbling and shooting for his position. His strength in the post might be a problem against NBA bigs, and Denver needs a more authoritative defensive rebounder for its second unit. But the offensive skillset makes Filipowski a compelling prospect who might be gone well before 28.
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Originally Published: June 25, 2024 at 3:37 p.m.
