As the Denver Nuggets enter the Western Conference Finals for the second time in four seasons, a breakdown of their matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers:

Who has the edge?

Guards: For the Nuggets to advance, Jamal Murray needs to find seams within the Lakers’ tight defense and win his matchup. This is a series for Murray. The Lakers’ strength resides in the paint, not on the perimeter. Whether it’s D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Dennis Schroder, or even potentially Jarred Vanderbilt hounding him, Murray needs to be the closer he was in the first round. That means trusting the pass and trusting his teammates. Russell is the most potent scoring threat the Lakers have in their backcourt. Expect former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to draw the assignment, leaving Murray to deal with Reaves. Also, don’t be surprised if the Lakers start Vanderbilt to help combat Denver’s length. They know their weaknesses. Edge: Nuggets

Wings: The Nuggets could have a sizable advantage in terms of length in this series. The X-factor, just as Kevin Durant deemed him last round: Michael Porter Jr. The Nuggets need his shot-making to draw out the Lakers’ defense and need his rebounding, on both ends, against LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If he gets the Vanderbilt assignment on defense, there’s no leaking out in transition. Vanderbilt’s an elite offensive rebounder who will punish Porter, who happens to be his close friend. The Lakers have two pillars inside without a ton of positional length around them. Porter has to make a bigger impact in this series than he did against Phoenix. For as good as his defense is, the Nuggets could also use a bigger offensive punch from rookie Christian Braun off the bench. Edge: Nuggets

Big men: Whatever category you put LeBron James in, he’s been among the most impactful basketball players in the world for the better part of two decades. With an efficient 30-point, 9-rebound, 9-assist night in a closeout game against the Warriors, there’s zero question James still has an extra gear. There’s also no telling how many more times he’ll be this close to a title, which constitutes scary motivation. Good luck, Aaron Gordon. His defensive matchups — Karl-Anthony Towns, Durant and now James — have offered a Murderer’s Row of responsibilities. This series could come down to which future Hall of Famer, Nikola Jokic or Davis, wins their individual matchup. Jokic is a generational offensive firehose who will test Davis’ defensive limits. Davis’ length and athleticism could flummox Denver in the paint and on the glass. Unlike in 2020, the Lakers don’t have a trove of big men behind their stars. Expect Jokic to punish that vulnerability by trying to get Davis into foul trouble. Edge: Lakers

Bench: Bruce Brown is the rare reserve who can play multiple positions, guard different players, slot into different roles and still be impactful. It’s clear Nuggets coach Michael Malone trusts him to close games, too. Jeff Green is one of the few forwards who can still jump with James, but he needs to hit the glass more than he’s historically done. Given the Lakers’ strength, there’s also the possibility Malone dives a bit deeper into his bench with forwards Vlatko Cancar, Zeke Nnaji and Peyton Watson. Lakers guard Lonnie Walker proved he can be a sparkplug off their bench. Brown, a fellow Miami Hurricane, will be tasked with erasing him. Edge: Even.

Coaching: Darvin Ham deserves immense credit for turning a team that was 2-10 in November into a conference finalist. After revamping their team at the deadline, their front office deserves significant credit, too. The Lakers also survived the play-in tournament to start their postseason march. Malone, though, has been in this position before against the Lakers. He helped dispatch Durant and Devin Booker last round, maintaining the same rotations that won them their first-round series. The same traits that helped Malone forge a strong relationship with James as an assistant in Cleveland are also why Jokic and Murray trust him. He’s a good communicator and a tireless worker. Edge: Nuggets

Five things to watch

1. Conference finals King: Going up against LeBron James in a playoff series is rarely a winning proposition, especially in the NBA’s penultimate round. LBJ claimed the 41st playoff series victory of his career after taking down Golden State Friday night, breaking Derek Fisher’s previous record (40) in the process. Ten of those series wins have come in the conference finals — a round that has seen LeBron’s teams compile a 42-22 record and 10-1 series mark. The lone loss was against Dwight Howard’s Orlando Magic back in 2009. Since then, King James has won nine straight.

2. Past is prologue: As if that wasn’t enough of a historical mountain for the Nuggets to climb, there’s also Denver’s tortured past. Seven times the Nuggets have met the Lakers in the playoffs. Seven times they’ve been eliminated, including three conference finals series, the most recent of which came in the 2020 Orlando bubble. Which brings us to perhaps the biggest historical hurdle of them all: The Nuggets have never reached the NBA Finals since joining the league in 1976, losing in the conference finals in each of their previous four visits. Only one of those four teams took a series lead — the 1977-78 squad went up 1-0 on Seattle before falling 4-2 — and none pushed the series to seven games.

3. Joker vs. the Brow: It’s rare that the two best players in a series find themselves matched up directly against each other. With all due respect to LeBron, an all-time great at 38, that’s where big men Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis find themselves as they prepare to lock horns over the next two weeks. The numbers from their three regular-season meetings suggest both can find offensive success: Jokic shot 64% (16 of 25) with six assists and three turnovers with the Brow guarding him, while Davis hit on 62.5% (20 of 32) of his shots against the Joker with six assists and two turnovers. Will Jokic’s shooting pull Davis outside and open up the paint for teammates? Can Davis take Jokic off the dribble and get him into foul trouble by attacking the rim? Who will hold the edge on the boards? So many fascinating subplots. And it’s just one matchup.

4. Offense vs. defense: The key to the Lakers’ success through two rounds? A stifling defense that limited their first two opponents, Memphis and Golden State, to 42.2% shooting over 12 games — the best mark of any playoff team. How will that play out against the Nuggets, who have the game’s most malleable star (Jokic) in the controls of its most efficient offense (115.8 points/game on 48.9% shooting)? Expect Denver to push the pace every chance it gets in an attempt to exploit Los Angeles’ biggest weakness: transition defense. As the Nuggets demonstrated in their last series against Phoenix, when they held a decisive edge on the glass, that starts on the other end of the floor.

5. The same, but different — again: In a theme that echoes each of Denver’s first two postseason series, the Lakers team Denver will encounter in these Western Conference Finals is a completely different animal than the one they met in their four regular-season meetings. All four were played before executive Rob Pelinka remade L.A.’s roster around James and Davis at the Feb. 9 trade deadline, and two came during its infamous 2-10 start to the season. Perhaps nothing illustrates that fact better than the Lakers’ record since their final matchup in early January: 33-21, including a play-in game win over Minnesota and two playoff series victories (9-4).

Predictions

Mike Singer, Nuggets beat writer: Much to the dismay of the rest of the basketball world, the Nuggets have looked and played like a No. 1 seed this postseason. An aging LeBron, despite his rings, isn’t going to block Joker’s quest. Denver’s going to the Finals, and they’re going to secure the conference championship in front of all those banners in Los Angeles. Hold onto your hats. Nuggets in six.

Mark Kiszla, sports columnist: The Nuggets have never beaten the Lakers in a playoff series during my lifetime. Or anybody else’s lifetime, for that matter. I’m old, but the first-round loss to L.A. in 1979 was before I got hired by The Post. Go ahead and blame me for the other six series defeats, so long as I get full credit this time around. Nuggets in six.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: For all the hand-wringing over the Nuggets’ sordid postseason history with the Lake Show, one stat keeps getting overlooked: This is the first playoff meeting between the bluebloods and new bloods since ’79 in which Denver actually comes in with the better seeding. This time they get the job done. Nuggets in seven.

Bennett Durando, sports reporter: Ignore that L.A. was a play-in team. LeBron has done more with less in his career. The Lakers will steal one of the first two at Ball Arena, like they did in Memphis and the Bay, then take a series lead in Hollywood. But the Nuggets have no qualms with getting this done the hard way, and Nikola Jokic will continue averaging a triple-double. Nuggets in six.

Matt Schubert, deputy sports editor: NBA history is going against the Nuggets in a multitude of ways, but there’s one way in which it isn’t: Throughout the years, the fate of big series like this one often rests on which team has the best player. In this case, that’s Denver and Nikola Jokic, whose brilliance can no longer be questioned. Nuggets in six.

Series schedule

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