NEW ORLEANS — One of the Nuggets’ coaches brought a hypothetical question of strategy to Michael Malone on Friday, before Denver’s third group stage game of the NBA in-season tournament.
If the Nuggets make it to the eight-team knockout stage, when every game is an elimination game, should they shorten their bench and treat it like an actual playoff game?
Will other teams treat it that way? Or will those games be coached as normally as possible for an early December matchup?
“I’m worried about today. When we get to Vegas, I’ll worry about that then,” Malone said a few hours later when presented with the same question during his pregame news conference in New Orleans.
“But I had not given that much thought. Obviously if we’re one of those (semifinal) teams that gets to Las Vegas, you can start thinking about, one: What’s at stake? From prize money for the players and how impactful that can be for some of these guys and their lives, and you do what you can to try to help win as best as possible. Will we treat that like we did last year and cut our rotation down to seven guys, eight guys? We’ll kind of cross that bridge if and when we get to it.”
At that point, it was only food for thought, but Malone might have to consider crossing that bridge sooner than expected now. The Nuggets face an uphill battle to clinch a knockout spot, with their final group game set for Black Friday in Houston. After a loss in New Orleans, they’re 2-1 in Group West B, tied with the Pelicans and losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. The only remaining scenario in which the Nuggets win their group is with a win at Houston combined with a Pelicans loss at the Clippers. Otherwise, point differential comes into play to determine the Western Conference wild card, meaning Denver (plus-nine) must win by a sizable enough margin against the Rockets to out-pace other 3-1 teams.
The question of lineup strategy isn’t just contained to Denver. It’s a league-wide topic likely being brought up within every coaching staff this month, mostly because the end of the group stage and upcoming knockout stage will be an unprecedented situation. This is the inaugural, standard-setting tournament, the first time teams are being incentivized to regard certain regular-season contests as something more. Early group games are one thing — you can afford to lose one and still mathematically advance — but the stakes are clearer and the games are fewer now. A coach might feel more comfortable tightening the rotation starting in the quarterfinals, because he would only have to for three “must-win” games maximum.
Or in Denver’s case, four, if Malone feels inclined to treat the group finale as a Game 7. After all, a win is required to have any chance to make the quarterfinals, and again, the difference between a five-point win and a 15-point win in Houston could be the margin between advancing and elimination.
As Malone noted, cash is on line: Players on the tournament-winning team get a $500,000 reward. Players on the runner-up team take home $200,000. Semifinalists get $100,000, and quarterfinalists get $50,000. That prize money goes a longer way for some players than others. The best way for backups off the bench to maximize their winnings might ironically be to play less.
Denver essentially used 7 1/2 players during its 2023 playoff run to the NBA title. A steady eight might be a more reasonable target for these in-season tournament elimination games. Some coaches might want to feel each other out strategically, basing their substitutions on how their counterparts manage the game.
(Another, more selfish argument in favor of going all out: It would be intriguing to see how Malone and his staff view the pecking order in their new-look second unit during the early stages of the season. Is Peyton Watson definitely the eighth guy after Reggie Jackson and Christian Braun? If Jamal Murray is still hurt, has Zeke Nnaji done enough to prove he’s one of the eight?)
The who-goes-first dynamic is where it could get especially interesting: Lineup strategy might depend on the team. Will the Philadelphia 76ers or Los Angeles Clippers, teams that have been unable to capitalize on their talent and make the NBA Finals in recent years, act hungrier to bring home a trophy? Should a team like Denver or Milwaukee that has already won the most important prize of all feel less inclined to have a cutthroat mindset in a regular-season tournament?
Those are the questions Malone is determined not to answer until necessary: starting late next week. But what seems inevitable is that eventually, whether it’s this year or next or the one after, a coach will decide to play only seven or eight players. Once that domino falls, other coaches will follow. The most underrated part of the intrigue of this inaugural, silly-seeming tournament is watching to see who will be the first to take it that seriously.
Want more Nuggets news? Sign up for the Nuggets Insider to get all our NBA analysis.
