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Nuggets vs. Heat: Three keys to Game 3 of NBA Finals 2023 as series shifts to Miami

MIAMI — As a series shifts, it feels as if the tectonic plates have as well.

The Nuggets are finally losers of a home playoff game, vulnerable for the first time this postseason after three 2-0 series leads.

Now a team that finished 19-22 on the road during the regular season faces a best-of-five series with three of the games in Miami. In order to win the franchise’s first NBA Finals, the Nuggets must crack the road code, like they did in Los Angeles.

Here are three keys to winning Game 3 vs. the Heat on Wednesday (6:30 p.m. MT, ABC) at Kaseya Center.

1. M.P.J., Make Perimeter Jumpers: Michael Porter Jr. was stellar on the glass, on defense and on decision-making in Game 1, so his poor shooting night didn’t matter. He even managed a double-double in spite of it. In Game 2, he was absent enough in other areas of the game that his shooting felt amplified. Porter must bounce back after scoring five points, which matched his lowest-scoring game of the playoffs and ended a nine-game streak in double figures. He’s 3 for 17 from 3-point range this series and 6 for 27 in the last three games. On top of those continuing struggles Sunday, he wasn’t as disciplined. As Miami made its fourth-quarter run, Bam Adebayo blasted into an open lane for an easy dunk — the kind you concede rather than foolishly risk fouling. But Porter strayed toward Adebayo from the baseline and left his feet, even though he had no chance to block the shot. Count the bucket. Add a free throw. An important point that would have helped when Denver had the last shot down 111-108. Porter was promptly subbed out of the game in exchange for Bruce Brown, and he only returned out of necessity once Kentavious Caldwell-Pope fouled out.

2. Run: The Nuggets grabbed a 48-35 lead in the second quarter of Game 2 after trailing 21-10. How? At that point, they led the Heat 16-0 in fast-break points. Then Denver inexplicably stopped playing in transition and lost the fast-break battle 5-2 the rest of the night. It’s the same exact story that loomed over the Western Conference Finals when Denver allowed the Lakers to keep the contests too close. The Nuggets are the better team, and the better team often benefits from speed. A half-court game favors Miami. Even in the series-opener, Denver didn’t get out in transition often, and the effects were on the scoreboard as the Heat slimmed a 24-point deficit to single digits. Part of the equation involves getting stops, because it’s harder to set the tempo when an opponent makes shots and forces you to inbound from under your own basket. Miami’s 48.6% mark beyond the arc won’t cut it. But when Denver gets a stop, don’t waste time bringing it up slowly.

3. Keep Butler quiet: It’s especially staggering that Miami managed a split in Denver when taking into account the discrepancy between star production. The Nuggets’ best player, Nikola Jokic, amassed 68 points on 40 shot attempts in Games 1 and 2. Jimmy Butler has half as many points (34) on 33 field goal attempts. Jimmy Buckets is a master at getting to the foul line, among other things, but he has earned only five free throws so far. The Nuggets will take his 7-for-19 performance any day. Losing a game in which Butler doesn’t explode for at least 30 stings even more.

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