The flood gates of free agency open Sunday night around the NBA.
For the Nuggets specifically, the flood — or to put it more accurately, the stream — of offseason additions will hinge on one major outcome in particular, one that will begin to materialize at 4 p.m. MT. That’s when all NBA teams are allowed to negotiate with free agents, including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver’s valuable fifth starter the last two seasons.
Caldwell-Pope declined his $15.4 million player option this week, making him an unrestricted free agent. The Nuggets possess his Bird rights, allowing them to match other teams’ offers even as it pushes their roster payroll further over the luxury tax. However, the collective bargaining agreement’s newly imposed second apron complicates the decision of whether to do that by presenting competitive penalties, not just financial ones.
We get into all of that here, examining the free agency scenarios based on which direction the first domino falls.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s free agency market
First thing’s first: What kind of contract offer will KCP get?
This is a weak free agent class at his position, to the extent that Caldwell-Pope might be the best shooting guard available. That should increase the number of teams pining for his archetypal 3-and-D services, and it could even raise the ceiling of his next salary. Low supply, high demand. A contract at $20 million per year feels like the low end of what he’ll obtain.
Years could be a factor as well. Caldwell-Pope is 31 with a lot of miles on him. He has played in 95% of all regular-season games in his 11-year career. This could end up being his last opportunity to sign an NBA contract this lucrative. Getting paid sufficiently until he’s 35 might be more meaningful than getting paid a bit more annually but only until he’s 33. There’s a good chance Denver is contending with at least one long-term offer. Four years at $90 million doesn’t seem far fetched (maybe including a fourth-year team option).
The Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic are expected to pursue Caldwell-Pope using the ample cap space at their disposal, league sources told The Denver Post. Those are compelling destinations, considering both teams made the 2024 playoffs and are trying to take the next step. Other potential suitors that have been reported include Indiana, Chicago, Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
The Nuggets will try to keep Caldwell-Pope. Even if they don’t match the highest bidder, they will likely present a competitive counter-offer. But there are ultimately two elements to how they maneuver through this. First, the front office has to determine what Caldwell-Pope is worth to Denver in money and years, from a basketball standpoint. Second is the chain reaction of re-signing him — because there’s more at stake than just a tax bill for ownership.
Even after a salary-dump trade of Reggie Jackson to Charlotte this week, Denver’s payroll was right around the luxury tax line with a handful of open roster spots. The second apron is about $18 million more than the luxury tax line, so the market for Caldwell-Pope indicates that re-signing him would still cross that critical line of demarcation.
Here’s how free agency will look for Denver in case of both outcomes.
If KCP stays …
The second apron is triggered, and the Nuggets face a list of penalties. These are the most important:
Not allowed to aggregate multiple players’ salaries going out in a trade
Not allowed to use the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.2 million)
Not allowed to sign-and-trade your own free agent if incoming salary exceeds second apron (acquiring a player via sign-and-trade to begin with triggers first-apron hard cap)
Not allowed to send out cash in a trade
2032 first-round pick is frozen and ineligible to be traded if 2024-25 season ends with payroll over second apron
Essentially, the Nuggets would be deciding that retaining Caldwell-Pope is worth shackling themselves from a roster-building standpoint. It would be a vote of supreme faith in the starting lineup that brought them a championship in 2023, and a concession of certain depth acquisitions.
Denver would still be able to sign free agents at the veteran minimum. For instance, Vlatko Cancar is likely to re-sign a one-year minimum deal after Denver declined his team option, regardless of what happens with Caldwell-Pope. But think of it like this: minimum-contract candidates are about half the financial value of mid-level exception candidates. The Nuggets would be choosing from the fringes of the market.
Potential rotation-caliber players in that bargain bin could include Delon Wright, Andre Drummond, Daniel Theis, Jae Crowder, Danilo Gallinari, Dario Saric or maybe Gordon Hayward. Then there’s Justin Holiday and DeAndre Jordan, both pending UFAs who were on vet minimum contracts in Denver last season. In a new rule this summer, teams were allowed a head start negotiating with their own free agents the day after the NBA Finals, but the Nuggets haven’t re-signed either.
“Both of those guys are big-time contributors,” general manager Calvin Booth said Wednesday. “I think DeAndre in particular has been here the last two years and has a championship with us. I think he’s kind of taken on the role of a Udonis Haslem-type guy, so I think we would like to bring DeAndre back, and also Justin. He was so good for us in the playoffs and such a good guy in the locker room. We’d like to take a look at that, too. But it just has to — we have 15 roster spots, and we can’t put 16 guys on. So we’re gonna have to make some tough decisions and see how it plays out.”
If KCP goes …
In what feels like the more likely outcome based on Booth’s comments this week, the Nuggets lose 2,402 minutes of playing time from their starting lineup, but they have slightly more flexibility signing free agents and making trades. For instance, they could attempt to combine Zeke Nnaji’s new $8.9 million salary with one of their rookie scale contracts to acquire a player who makes more than $10 million. (Attempting to pull of a maneuver like that, however, is made difficult by the sudden shortage of draft picks Denver can attach to sweeten a deal.)
RELATED: Nuggets GM Calvin Booth ahead of NBA free agency: “I think we’ll be OK, if KCP doesn’t return”
Specifically within free agency, the consolation prize in this scenario is access to the taxpayer mid-level exception ($5.2 million). Denver isn’t a traditional UFA destination, but it’s a legitimate championship contender that offers veterans an opportunity to play with a selfless three-time MVP. So a little more ambition is cautiously acceptable when brainstorming candidates for this category — not enough ambition for Klay Thompson, who is not believed to be a feasible option for Denver, according to sources. But could defensive ace Kris Dunn sign at the mid-level? Cam Payne? Eric Gordon? A ring-chasing backup point guard such as Chris Paul, if he’s waived instead of traded?
The Nuggets’ biggest offseason needs on paper were upgrades at backup center and backup point guard. But if Caldwell-Pope is gone, you can never have too many wings, either. Boston was evidence of that last season. Don’t rule out Booth seeking athletic wing depth if Christian Braun is set to move into the starting lineup.
Booth’s insistence that draft pick DaRon Holmes is “100% a four,” rather than a five, seemed like a sign Denver isn’t done searching for centers — whether that means re-signing Jordan, acquiring a newcomer or both. Still, if the Nuggets want to play small-ball with their second unit, Holmes and Cancar are a frontcourt duo that would allow them to play five-out unlike last year.
The balance between building through the draft and arming the rotation with seasoned contributors is delicate, and this is the scenario in which Booth will encounter that. Like many coaches, Michael Malone has a reputation for leaning on veterans, perhaps to a fault last season.
“The onus will be on DaRon in Summer League to play well and to show the coaches he can play,” Booth said. “And I think if he can play, he’ll get a chance to play. More and more, we’re starting to understand the realities of the CBA. … You have to get value out of these guys.”
Jamal Murray extension
The other Nuggets storyline to watch in free agency is Murray, who’s under contract for one more year but eligible for up to a four-year, $208.5 million extension. It’s a substantial max contract, even after Murray was unable to attain supermax eligibility last season. (He needed All-NBA recognition.) Denver hopes to get Murray’s extension done this offseason, a league source told The Post. The two sides are allowed to agree to a deal as soon as early July, though it doesn’t have to happen immediately.
Originally Published: June 27, 2024 at 2:00 p.m.
