The Stanley Cup isn’t the only trophy that the Avs are eyeing for a repeat.
Cale Makar has existed on the outer edge of Norris debate for the entire NHL season, all while quietly making a case that he’s the most deserving defenseman in the league for a second consecutive season.
As recently as January, it came as a surprise when Makar was selected as the Avalanche’s representative in the All-Star game instead of Mikko Rantanen. Makar even voted for Rantanen in the online fan vote, he told The Post.
That was before Makar started facing various injuries. He missed four games in January, sustained two concussions in February and had a minor lower-body injury in March. He has missed 15 games total.
Yet somehow, Makar has surged his way into the Norris debate as one of only three defensemen in the NHL averaging a point per game. He’s at 1.14. Erik Karlsson, the odds-on favorite, has played in every game for San Jose, averaging 1.23. Should Makar belong at the center of the conversation now?
“No question. I feel like he’s earned it,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said. “Most important time of the year, coming down the stretch, what he’s doing to help our team get to where we’re trying to go. That’s what the Norris is about. He’s fought some injuries here and there and been out a couple times, and it’s not always easy to jump back in. Especially with a guy like Cale. We’ve seen it even at the start of the season.
“He fights the puck a little bit more. Things don’t come as easily for him, even though he’s got the legs and the right intention. And then as he starts to play games, he becomes more dangerous and more dangerous.”
The defending Norris winner was widely considered to be off to a slow start when the holiday break arrived. At that point, Makar had 29 points in 32 games, including seven goals and only three at even strength. He was plus-three goals on the ice with a 6.5% shooting mark.
At the same time last season, Makar already had 26 points in 23 games (13 goals). He was shooting 20.3%.
But the underlying numbers, as well as the sheer league-wide confidence in Makar’s excellence, indicated an uptick was on the way. He was always near the top of Colorado’s leaderboard in expected goals rate and scoring chances. He was playing sturdy defense in career-high minutes while the Avs waded through a swamp of injuries.
Starting Jan. 7, when his overtime goal at Edmonton ended the Avalanche’s five-game winless streak, he has generated 31 points in his last 21 games. The Avs are plus-15 goals with him on the ice during that period, and he has scored four game-winners in a tight division race.
So now that the offense has arrived, what’s the overall Norris case for Makar with a season-long sample size? The other major contenders in terms of betting odds are Karlsson, Adam Fox, Rasmus Dahlin and Josh Morrissey.
Start with workload. Makar leads the NHL in minutes per game and has all season. His 26:28 average is 43 seconds more than Karlsson, 46 more than Dahlin, 1:52 ahead of Fox and 2:14 ahead of Morrissey. Nobody is relied on like Makar, who has spearheaded the Avalanche’s top-five power play in the league while also killing penalties.
The counterargument is the durability of other candidates. All four have played at least 11 more games. Makar leads the league in average ice time, but Karlsson leads in total minutes.
How about the analytics? Makar’s xGF% while on the ice is 56.32%, ranking 10th among defensemen (minimum 1,000 minutes). It’s a better number than Fox (54.87%), Karlsson (54.73%), Dahlin (51.45%) and Morrissey (49.82%). Makar also has the higher scoring chances for rate, ranking fourth among blueliners at 58.93%.
Karlsson, however, leads Makar in high-danger SCF%. The case for Karlsson is that his on-ice analytics are all the more impressive because he’s surrounded by one of the worst teams in the league. Makar and his teammates lifted the Cup nine months ago.
It’s probably an uphill climb for Makar against Karlsson, who has 22 goals and 90 points. But there’s a strong argument Makar has already ascended to No. 2. The league-wide respect for him cannot be ignored, either.
In an NHL Players Association vote this season consisting of 626 of Makar’s peers, he was voted “best defenseman in the game” by a landslide. Makar played it off when asked about receiving 63.9% of the vote.
“He’s being modest,” Bednar countered. “You see what he does. He kind of starts taking over the game.”
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