Time brings perspective, even in the hot-button world of contemporary sports.
So it is with the Rockies’ 2021 trade of star third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals.
As word of the trade leaked out, Sports Illustrated wrote: “Years from now, what transpired in the baseball world on Jan. 29, 2021, will be remembered as the Friday Night Heist. The Cardinals held up the aimless Rockies for their best player, made Colorado fork over $50 million to cover their tracks and left behind an undisclosed bundle of mid-tier prospects for their troubles.”
That was the nearly universal sentiment at the time. And while the trade will forever symbolize missteps by Colorado’s ownership and front office, its consequences are no longer black and white. More than three years later, there are multiple shades of gray.
Arenado appears to have peaked, and now, at age 33, his career is on the downside. And while it’s true that he escaped the losing culture in Colorado, the postseason dreams he longed for in St. Louis seem far away.
The Rockies lost their best and most dynamic player when the trade went down. Believe it or not, they still pay part of Arenado’s salary. Last year, they forked over $16 million for him to play for the Cardinals. This year, the Rockies are paying only $5 million.
The Rockies have yet to replace Arenado’s star power. They tried and failed when they signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year, $182 million contract before the 2022 season. Plus, many Rockies fans have never forgiven the organization for the Arenado trade and turned their backs on the team, perhaps forgetting that the star third baseman forced his way out of LoDo.
Still, 3 1/2 years removed from that dark day in Colorado sports history, the trade is not the complete bust it was predicted to be, largely because of left-hander Austin Gomber, who’s emerged as Colorado’s best starter. Over his last 23 starts since June 25, 2023, he’s 6-5 with a 3.36 ERA and has posted 12 quality starts over that span (entering this weekend). Gomber was sensational in May, going 4-0 with a 1.71 ERA in five starts.
Gomber is eligible to become a free agent after next season, so if he stays healthy, there is a possibility the Rockies could trade him for a decent return. Or, if the Rockies can begin turning things around in 2025, perhaps the lefty remains a cog in the rotation.
Elehuris Montero was also part of the Arenado trade. He was a bust as a third baseman, but with Bryant spending more time in the trainer’s room than on the diamond, Montero has emerged as a decent first baseman. At the plate, however, Montero stands in no-man’s land. It’s doubtful he’ll ever be an impactful major league player over the long haul. Although he’s reduced his strikeout rate from 36.2% last season to 22.0% currently, he’s hitting just .209 with a .570 OPS and a meager three home runs.
But the deal will forever be known as “The Arenado Trade.” When it went down, the storyline was that the 10-time Gold Glove third baseman had found greener pastures. But unless the Cardinals rediscover their winning ways, the trade will ultimately be viewed as a disappointment.
Before Arenado’s bitter feud with former general manager Jeff Bridich, before the trade that Arenado forced, and before the Rockies stumbled to five straight losing seasons (and counting), Arenado told me something that has stayed with me.
In January 2018, he said: “The opportunity to play in October every year is what I want. I want a team that tries as hard as it can to make the playoffs every year.”
Arenado stressed that he didn’t want his career to play out as Todd Helton’s did. Helton played all 17 of his seasons in Colorado, had his number retired and will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame on July 21. But Helton’s Rockies qualified for the playoff just twice, going to the World Series in 2007 and getting beat in the National League division series in 2009.
“There is something to be said for being with an organization for your whole career; I definitely believe in that,” Arenado said. “I admired Todd, and I admired (Yankees Hall of Famer) Derek Jeter, guys who stick with one team their whole career. So, I have a lot of respect for what Todd did. But at the end of the day, I don’t want to be in Todd’s shoes where I only go to the playoffs twice in my career.”
Still, in the spring of 2019, Arenado signed what was then the biggest contract in Denver professional sports history — eight years, $260 million. Less than two years later, he was gone.
“As a kid, you dream of winning a World Series, and that’s still the dream now,” he said on the day he was officially traded to St. Louis. “To join this organization, they care about winning and about getting things done, and that’s really exciting.”
The reality is that Helton went to a World Series. Arenado has not.
In fact, the Cardinals have yet to win a single playoff game since Arenado came on board. In 2021, they went 90-72, finished second in the National League Central and lost the wild-card playoff game to the Dodgers. In 2022, they went 93-69 and won the NL Central but were swept in the wild-card series by the Phillies.
The irony is that Arenado wanted out of Colorado because he didn’t believe the team was doing enough to build a winning team. But in St. Louis, the Cardinals didn’t do enough on the pitching side to build around Arenado and fellow star Paul Goldschmidt.
That’s haunting the Cardinals now. Arenado and Goldschmidt’s stars have dimmed, and the Cardinals had a 30-32 record entering Saturday as they continued their four-game series with the Rockies in St. Louis. Arenado is slashing .248/.309/.370 with six homers and 29 RBIs. After winning a Gold Glove 10 consecutive years, Arenado did not win one last season. He’s still a terrific fielder, but he’s not the favorite to win a Gold Glove this year.
Meanwhile, Goldschmidt, 36, is slashing .227/.303/.353 with seven homers and 24 RBIs.
The Cardinals’ lackluster start to this season follows a 2023 in which they tumbled to last place in their division with a 71-91 record. That did not sit well with Arenado, who decided at the end of the 2022 season that he would remain with the Cardinals through 2027.
“We have to take a huge step,” Arenado told The Athletic before this season. “I don’t think it’s OK to have another bad year. When you think of the Cardinals, you think of extended greatness and constantly winning. We don’t have time to not be good again.
“I don’t think the fans expect that. We, as individuals, don’t expect that. There is no other expectation other than we need to go win. But that hasn’t changed. I think people think it has changed because of the year we had last year, but the expectations stay the same. It’s just a matter of us taking that leap forward.”
But Arenado is struggling to regain the swing that enabled him to launch at least 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs for seven straight seasons from 2015 to ’22.
“It’s bad. The swing is not good, my swing is not good,” Arenado told reporters at the end of May after going 0 for 4 in the Cardinals’ 3-1 loss at Cincinnati. “I’ve been working on it and trying to figure this thing out, but my swing is not good.
“I’m a guy that pulls the ball in the air and I haven’t done that all year. I don’t know what the answers are. I’ve got to continue to try to find it. I can see the difference of when I was good and when I’m not, but trying to apply it in games right now is really hard for me.”
Arenado’s 2.4% home run rate pales compared to the 6.3% he put up in 2015 when he hit a career-high 42 homers for the Rockies. In 2021, during his first season with the Cardinals, Arenado’s home run rate was 5.2%, and he put the ball over the fence 34 times. So, his decline is not simply a Coors Field thing.
Arenado, the best third baseman I’ve ever seen and one of the most competitive people I’ve ever met, deserves to be enshrined in Cooperstown someday. He has Hall of Fame credentials.
I don’t believe he regrets being traded to the Cardinals, a team rich with a winning tradition and a fan base that lives and breathes baseball. But if the Cardinals don’t rediscover those winning ways soon, with Arenado leading the way, one of the biggest trades in Colorado sports history won’t turn out like anyone projected. Least of all, the man at the center of it all.
The Trade
On Feb. 1, 2021, the Rockies traded All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado and approximately $51 million to the Cardinals for left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber, right-handers Tony Locey and Jake Sommer, and infielders Mateo Gil and Elehuris Montero.
Where are they now?
• Gomber: The 30-year-old lefty has become a mainstay in the Rockies’ rotation. He’s 24-28 in three-plus seasons with a 4.92 ERA in 94 games (78 starts). Gomber is 1-3 with a 3.06 ERA this season in 11 starts.
• Montero: With Kris Bryant sidelined by injury, he’s become the Rockies’ primary first baseman this season. In two-plus seasons, the 25-year-old has hit .231 with a .671 OPS and 20 home runs. This season, he’s slashing .213/.279/.303 with three home runs in 52 games.
• Sommers: At 27, Sommer has pitched in relief for Double-A Hartford and Triple-A Albuquerque this season. In three games for the Yard Goats, he posted an 11.47 ERA and has a 7.36 ERA in two appearances with the Isotopes.
• Locey: The Rockies traded Locey, 25, to Tampa Bay in March 2023. He reached Double-A with the Rockies and is now pitching for the Bowling Green Red Hots, the Rays’ High-A team. In 16 relief appearances, he’s 3-0 with a 4.74 ERA.
• Gil: The 23-year-old shortstop reached High-A with the Rockies organization in 2022 but was waived after the season. He now plays for the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets’ High-A team. He’s hitting .237 with three homers in 22 games.
— Patrick Saunders, The Denver Post
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