Michael Malone was struggling to find an explanation in the film, but he did feel confident enough to issue a guarantee.
To hell with the percentages. This is Nikola Jokic. In the second half of the season, Malone told The Denver Post last Sunday, “I know Nikola’s going to be a guy that is ultra-efficient in every spot on the floor.”
The Nuggets coach had no reason to be convinced of that based on the start of 2023-24. In Jokic’s first 31 games, he shot 54.1% from the field — compared to his 63.2% clip last season — and 32.1% from 3-point range. Most notably, his finishing within 5 feet of the basket (62.2%) was down more than 10% from Denver’s championship season.
The two-time MVP was still playing exceptionally enough to belong in the conversation for a third. But the crux of his scoring efficiency decline occurred early in December when Jokic had 9-for-32 and 9-for-26 outings in consecutive losses. His shooting volume to start the season was also noticeably higher than ever, a product of Jamal Murray’s 14-game absence and the increase in single coverage opponents were showing Jokic in the post.
But aside from increased attempts, which can inevitably dilute percentages a bit, were there any trends standing out to Denver’s coaches behind closed doors? Any tendencies to force ill-advised shots without the dependable Murray sharing the floor? Or simply a glitch in the seemingly robotic superstar’s shooting form or release point?
“Nothing tangible that I can cite right now,” Malone told The Post, shrugging. “The question I ask myself is, ‘Is he getting good looks? Is he getting the right shots?’ For nine years we’ve seen Nikola shoot the ball at an extremely high level, especially around the basket, in the mid-range. So if we’re generating good looks, that’s the bigger question.”
Malone felt the answer to that question was the same as always. (Yes.) The root of his optimism was his longtime partnership with Jokic.
There resides one of the perks of organizational continuity: Malone’s approach to a shooting “slump,” if it could even be called that, was to trust Jokic unconditionally to keep taking the same shots without the need for reassurance. Don’t make a big deal out of it.
Just one week later, Jokic is more firmly part of the MVP discussion.
It helps to have the best shooting stretch of his career.
Entering Friday night’s matchup with the Magic, Jokic had shot 88.6% (39-of-44) in his last four games. It was the third-best field goal percentage by any player in any four-game span (minimum 40 attempts) since the introduction of the shot clock in 1954-55, according to NBA Stats. It was also the highest field goal percentage Jokic has ever had across four games, regardless of shot attempts. He followed it with another efficient 29-point night, bringing the five-game clip to 82.5%.
The last time a player had a more efficient four-game stretch was February 1967, when Wilt Chamberlain made 45 of 49 shots (91.8%). He also had a 91.5% four-game span earlier that season.
Considering that Jokic suddenly can’t miss, it was probably predictable enough that his 39-foot heave Thursday night at Golden State would find a way in, via glass or high water. The bank shot handed Denver its sixth consecutive road win and the NBA rare footage of an excited, passionate Jokic. His celebration could end up in league promos for years.
“I thought Nikola’s reaction was classic,” Malone said.
A buzzer beater that dramatic on national television will naturally lend attention to Jokic’s MVP credibility. He’s right alongside Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo in betting odds.
One sliver of a season isn’t enough to win the award, of course. But signs point to Jokic’s recent surge becoming a trend. Or a return to the status quo.
Teams are feeling pressured to double Jokic more often as he heats up, and his volume has decreased by more than five attempts per game since Murray returned from hamstring and ankle injuries. Jokic’s net rating is 11.8, narrowly trailing Embiid (13.0) and Gilgeous-Alexander (12.0). The Nuggets are plus-nine points per game when Jokic is on the floor and minus-3.3 per game when he’s on the bench, one of the most staggering on/off impacts in the league.
But most importantly, if he hopes to overcome Embiid’s sheer scoring edge — the Sixers center leads the NBA in points (34.6 per game) and usage rate (37.9) — Jokic’s durability advantage might have to be a factor.
Embiid missed seven of Philadelphia’s first 32 games due to injuries. Under the new collective bargaining agreement, a player is only eligible for end-of-year awards if he plays 65 or more games, meaning Embiid can only afford to miss 10 more in the last 59% of the season.
Meanwhile, after the Nuggets finished up their league-leading ninth back-to-back Friday, a visibly exhausted Jokic said he “definitely” feels like he has played more games than usual at this point in the season. He has played the second contest in eight of the back-to-backs. The ninth is the only Denver game he has missed all season.
When Malone was asked this week about how Jokic is pacing himself without much rest, the coach was emphatic in his viewpoint.
“I wouldn’t use the word ‘pace,’” Malone said. “I learned a long time ago, man: Everybody says, ‘Hey, the NBA season is a marathon.’ I’ve run marathons. And I’ve seen the guys that win marathons. They don’t pace themselves. They’re running sub-five-minute miles. So you can talk about, ‘Oh, it’s a marathon.’ Pacing yourself is what losing teams do.”
Jokic, Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo have all missed one game. Doncic has missed three. Embiid is the only candidate for whom the 65-game minimum might be a challenge. And as Jokic loyalists are fond of pointing out, the games Embiid has missed are against opponents with a combined win percentage of .598 as of Friday.
The race seems to be speeding toward another referendum on Hall of Fame center preference, even if it’s not late enough in the season to dive deep into comparative analytics just yet. More of Embiid’s defense vs. Jokic’s distributing. More of the vitriol Jokic desperately wanted to avoid engaging with in the spring of 2023.
About that distributing, though: Jokic’s outstanding week also featured a handful of new candidates for his best assist of the season, most notably a punch pass to Peyton Watson for a corner 3-pointer.
Jokic is still making his own teammates’ jaws drop in awe of him. On the bench, Reggie Jackson watched Jokic whack the ball toward Watson and turned to DeAndre Jordan, stunned.
“I didn’t know he did it. I just saw the ball re-routed,” Jackson said. “While the ball was in the air, I was like, ‘Yo. Peyton has to hit this.’”
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