The year of Connor Bedard is finally about to arrive at its anticlimactic ending, with the generational prospect joining the Avalanche’s division rival Chicago Blackhawks as the consensus No. 1 overall draft pick.
What follows — well, after consensus No. 2 pick Adam Fantilli — is a ticking timer of a first round counting down toward the Avs and a decision.
Use three top-40 picks to bolster a weak prospect pool? Or deploy them as part of a trade package for a ready-now NHL forward?
The Avalanche front office has an opportunity to wheel and deal on draft day — maybe even on the draft floor Wednesday (5 p.m. MT, ESPN) in Nashville. Especially now that first-year general manager Chris MacFarland is equipped with two extra last-second assets. The Avs have the Nos. 27 and 31 picks in the first round, then No. 37 in the second round Thursday. The latter two picks are the return on a Draft Eve trade that sent Alex Newhook to Montreal.
When asked before the midseason trade deadline whether Colorado was willing to trade No. 27 or dead-set on drafting, MacFarland said he was open to parting with it for the right deal. And that was when the pick felt 10 times more precious to the Avalanche — it was their only remaining pick in the first four rounds of this draft.
The Avalanche have approached the offseason the same way, keeping their options open in recent weeks. The Newhook move was designed to broaden the options in the final 24 hours before Colorado is on the clock. So again, the limited-time-only question is to trade or not to trade. And what to trade. And for whom.
Another late development bears keeping in mind: By trading a pending unrestricted free agent (translation: nothing) to the cap-desperate Predators last Saturday, the Avs acquired a middle-six center in Ryan Johansen and lowered the incentive to trade picks.
Johansen is a solid addition — maybe even a 2C — but he doesn’t completely extinguish that incentive to keep adding. Colorado has the cap space ($7 million extra), the championship window and the roster holes for it to make sense to trade one or both first-rounders. The upcoming free agent class is subpar, so more enticing players theoretically reside in the trade market, where Colorado typically thrives.
It’s not quite that simple, of course. If the Avs want to utilize Gabriel Landeskog’s $7 million in LTIR cap space this season and still have a chance to extend core defenseman Devon Toews next summer, MacFarland needs to seek a very specific type of trade target Wednesday: someone who fills an immediate need (i.e., a scoring wing or play-making center) and has only one year remaining on his current contract.
That second caveat is important. Because Colorado is counting on Landeskog returning from his knee cartilage transplant in 2024-25, the front office must act under the assumption that the bonus $7 million are only good for one season. After that, you’re at the mercy of the league’s unpredictable, incremental cap increases this time next year.
How many players fit those criteria and are worth the first-round price for only one season? The list isn’t long, but there are avenues. Wheels are in motion throughout the NHL.
Notable candidates: Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele ($6.13 million), Anaheim’s Adam Henrique ($5.825 million), Calgary’s Elias Lindholm ($4.85 million) or Mikael Backlund ($5.35 million), Florida’s Anthony Duclair ($3 million) . Considering the reports of stalling contract negotiations, perhaps William Nylander ($6.96 million) would fit. Or a pending restricted free agent, like Ottawa’s Alex DeBrincat, though an acquisition like that would cause other complications if the ensuing contract agreement is long-term. (Maybe he already has his mind set on dumping someone else’s salary next summer to accommodate.)
Weighing these decisions requires thinking years in advance. But with the players available, it’s clear enough that trading No. 27 or 31 could be as justifiable as it is tricky. Colorado also understands the value in keeping picks. The front office has already been attempting recently to replenish the organization’s prospect pool, which was ranked worst in the NHL by The Athletic earlier this year and second-worst by The Hockey Writers.
On one hand, the Avs don’t have a strong history of hitting with their late first-round picks. On the other, this is MacFarland’s first draft as a GM with something to prove. Past precedent isn’t his problem.
The 2023 draft class has been touted as especially deep; it’s not just Bedard. Not that it means a late first-rounder is a guaranteed star. This area of the NHL draft has always been hit or miss. Players picked 27th or within two spots of 27 since 2010 include Tage Thompson, Jake Oettinger, David Pastrnak, Adrian Kempe, Vladislav Namestnikov and Evgeny Kuznetsov. Yet in 2015, a draft year considered one of the greatest ever, the No. 27 pick was Jacob Larsson. He’s played only 172 career NHL games.
Here are a few names worth watching if the Avs use a pick or two. When it comes to prospects (unlike NHL trade targets), they aren’t in a position to be picky about position.
Otto Stenberg, LW: There’s definite interest in Stenberg, who’s a bit undersized (5-11, 180) but a fierce skater with a lethal shot. He captained the Swedish U18 team this season and played in the SHL. He’s projected to go in the 27 range.
Ethan Gauthier, RW: Similar profile to Stenberg, but Gauthier is projected more commonly as an early second-rounder. He registered 69 points (30 goals) in 66 games last season in the QMJHL.
Theo Lindstein, LD: A smart defender who might not possess the skill and two-way prowess of current top-end Avalanche blueliners — but that’s not necessarily what Colorado is looking for in Round 2. Lindstein switched between the SHL and his club’s junior team last season.
Michael Hrabal, G: Possibly the top goalie prospect in this draft, but he’s showing up in the 30s in mocks. Draft-and-develop hasn’t exactly been Colorado’s prerogative when it comes to goaltending, but Hrabal would make an interesting pair with Justus Annunen in the farm system. Alexandar Georgiev (seventh in Vezina voting) might already be playing himself toward an unaffordable pay day in two years.
Eduard Sale, LW: Decent chance Sale gets picked a few spots too high for the Avalanche, but they have eyes on him. He played limited minutes in the top Czech league last season (14 points in 43 games) and has the alluring traits: size (6-2), speed and skill.
Andrew Cristall, LW: Elite scorer in Canada’s Western Hockey League, but his size and speed are both question marks that have resulted in a wide variance in his draft evaluation. He’s projected in the 20s in some mocks, but The Athletic ranks him as the No. 68 prospect. He scored 39 goals in 54 games last season. Would he be able to keep up in the Avalanche’s system?
Avalanche 2023 NHL draft picks
First round
When: 5 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN
Avalanche picks: No. 27, No. 31
Second to seventh rounds
When: 9 a.m. MT
TV: NHL Network, ESPN+
Avalanche picks: No. 37 (second round), No. 155 (fifth round), No. 187 (sixth round), No. 219 (seventh round)
Want more Avalanche news? Sign up for the Avalanche Insider to get all our NHL analysis.
