Around the AFC
Tight race so far. The four teams atop the AFC each have three losses, making for a tight race for the top seed six weeks from the end of the season. Baltimore is 9-3 and has this week off. Kansas City, Jacksonville and Miami are all 8-3 and playing this weekend. Rev up the engines. It’s going to be a terrific battle for the No. 1 seed, which comes with a bye through the Wild Card round to the Divisional round.
Jags in control. Obviously the Jags are one of those top four teams, thanks to a narrow win over Houston last weekend that gave them a two-game lead in the AFC South. Since a 1-2 start – including a blowout loss to the Texans – the Jags have won seven of their past eight. They’re getting quality play from a bunch of players, but not many better than edge Josh Allen, who’s up to 12 sacks on the season now. If he gets to 17, he’ll match his total from the past three years combined. Not bad for the 2019 first-rounder in a contract year.
Rodgers’ World. The Jets opened the 21-day window to return from injured reserve for quarterback Aaron Rodgers on Wednesday, just 11 weeks after he tore his Achilles four snaps into the season. Whether he plays this year remains to be seen, but the amount of leverage and power he has in New York is incredible. His injury might just earn Robert Saleh, Nathaniel Hackett and general manager Joe Douglas a hall pass on this year despite what’s trending toward disaster.
Around the NFC
Seattle fading. The line is so thin in the NFL. Seattle nearly pulled off a major, critical victory Thursday night against Dallas. Instead, the Seahawks have lost three straight and fallen back to 6-6. They’re in a fight for their playoff lives as San Francisco pulls away into the distance in the NFC West after being tied atop the division earlier this month. Oh, and they’ve got the 49ers and Philadelphia the next two weeks. A tough stretch gets tougher.
Who wants the South? Does anybody want to win the NFC South? Anybody? Bueller? New Orleans had a chance to grab control, but played terribly and lost to Atlanta. Now the Falcons lead the division at 5-6. Before that win Sunday, Arthur Smith’s team had lost four of five. Maybe they’ll get hot. Atlanta’s opponents the rest of the way: The Jets, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Indianapolis, Chicago and New Orleans. Not exactly a murderers row.
Playoff Pack? Don’t look now, but Green Bay is also 5-6. That might not be much to write home about, but it’s good enough to sit a half-game out of the final playoff spot (along with the Saints and Los Angeles Rams). Quarterback Jordan Love over the past four games has a 103.1 quarterback rating on 65% completions and eight touchdown passes against two interceptions. If he can help mount a playoff run in his first year as a starter, that’d be a nice first step for a young Packers team.
Game of the Week
San Francisco at Philadelphia
Easy call this week. A rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game and a potential preview of this season’s edition. The 8-3 49ers are three-point favorites 3,000 miles from home against a 10-1 Eagles team. That tells you what oddsmakers think of Kyle Shanahan’s team when it’s healthy. Jalen Hurts and Philly are 5-0 at home and four of their past five wins have come against Miami, Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo. The team’s lone blemish looks wilder by the week — a 20-14 loss to the reeling Jets. This should be a terrific matchup, so once the Broncos and Texans are done, settle in for the late afternoon.
49ers 31, Eagles 30
Lock of the Week
Miami at Washington
A funny-but-true stat about the Dolphins: They have exactly one win against a team that enters Week 13 with a winning record. It’s the 70-20 blowout against Denver, which is now 6-5. Other than that, the Dolphins have lost to Philadelphia and Kansas City (and 6-6 Buffalo) and beat up on bad teams the rest of the way. This week they’re playing… another bad team. And the worst pass defense in the NFL. Mike McDaniel’s team needs to stack wins against the Commies, Tennessee and Jets before a closing kick that includes Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo. They should get off to a good start on that front as 9.5-point road favorites.
Dolphins 34, Commanders 24
Upset of the Week
Indianapolis at Tennessee
This pick is more about the lack of good options rather than the fact that, aside from the Broncos winning themselves, a Titans win here would be the most helpful outcome of the week for Denver. The Colts are feisty with Gardner Minshew running the show and are a surprising 4-1 on the road. They’ve won three straight against bad teams and have a pretty good thing rolling. But Jonathan Taylor is set to have thumb surgery and the Titans are 4-1 at home, meaning Indy is just a one-point favorite. So… maybe? Broncos fans should get used to cheering for Tennessee anyway, as it has two games against Houston left on its slate down the stretch.
Titans 17, Colts 16
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