The Avalanche’s three-game sample against the Seattle Kraken wasn’t actually the most relevant data to Jared Bednar’s first-round playoff preparation and perspective.
Three close games. One decided by one goal in the third period, another in overtime, another in a shootout. But….
“We played them early (in the season), and then we played them on two back-to-backs,” Bednar said before Game 1 when asked what he learned about the Kraken in those regular-season matchups. “So I didn’t feel like our energy level was where it could have been.”
How ’bout now?
There was nothing faulty about the Avs’ effort or energy Tuesday in a 3-1 Game 1 loss. They had more than enough rest. And they came in hot, unlike the first matchup last fall when the defending champs were banged up and starting their early descent toward sixth place in the Central Division.
All the extraneous circumstances were gone. The result was the most “lopsided” of the four games between Colorado and Seattle this year.
The series is young, but it’s enough to prompt the question of whether the Kraken are simply a bad matchup for the Avs and have been all along.
“I think you’re going to expect a tight series against these guys,” Logan O’Connor said.
“I don’t think they showed us anything different from what we saw in the regular season,” Alex Newhook told The Post. “I think we’ve just got to do a better job of beating it, and playing against their structure. We know how we can beat it.”
Game 1 was a minor anomaly in some ways. The Kraken’s defensive recipe is to limit chances and deny pucks from getting to the net, where Philipp Grubauer is inconsistent at best. They held opponents to 27 shots on goal per game and did even better against the Avalanche, containing Colorado to a 23.3 SOG average in the regular season. This time, the Avs made Grubauer see 35 shots, but he saved 34 of them.
But there were constants too. Mostly, as Newhook said, in Seattle’s style and structure. Grubauer’s above-average performance can be traced via domino effect to the opposite end of the ice, where Seattle has wreaked havoc on Colorado and other NHL heavyweights all year.
“I think it actually starts with our breakouts,” O’Connor said. “You don’t get to forecheck the puck if you’re not chipping the puck in, and you’re not chipping the puck in if you’re not getting the puck out on the breakout. So I think it starts all the way back in our own zone.”
Indeed, the Avalanche’s defensive zone breakouts were a nightmare. In both the regular season and Game 1, O’Connor noticed Seattle’s focus on getting above the Avs’ breakout passes to disrupt their skilled defensemen from igniting then jumping ahead on the rush. Two of the Kraken’s Game 1 goals started with turnovers or misplays by Avalanche blueliners behind their own net. Both errors — one by Devon Toews, the other by Josh Manson — were caused by Seattle’s aggression deep in the offensive zone.
The Kraken also were intent on checking aggressively along the boards. Wall play was a weakness for Colorado. Evan Rodrigues thought that “we didn’t take enough advantage of their aggression, if that makes sense. We maybe got too cute with it.”
“When we do get it in the neutral zone,” O’Connor said, “I think if we don’t have a play, we’ve got to make sure to get it in deep.”
The Avs didn’t do that enough. Against that Kraken aggression, they had a hard time getting up the ice. When they did, they relied more on getting around the pressure and carrying the puck in. The focal point during that type of attack is puck protection and shot creation while moving at a fast pace, rather than forechecking. Colorado is an elite team on the rush, but when scoring chances develop quickly and closer to the blue line, there isn’t time to get all five skaters established in the offensive zone and around the net front. By not dumping the puck in more, the Avs sacrificed forechecking opportunities.
Then, the final domino. Lack of sustained offensive zone pressure results in fewer opportunities to screen the goalie and deflect shots.
“I thought (Grubauer) saw a lot of those chances and a lot of those shots,” Matt Nieto said.
“He didn’t see enough screened shots last night,” Bednar said. “That’s for sure.”
It all starts 200 feet away from Grubauer.
Seattle doesn’t have terrifying individuals towering over this series — no Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar or Mikko Rantanen. But the underdogs do have four competent, hard-working forward lines that commit to Dave Hakstol’s structure. Scrappy. Heavy defensively. Intent on forcing those breakout errors. The Kraken’s greatest strength happens to be the Avalanche’s greatest weakness: All four Seattle lines have enough offensive talent to capitalize when an opponent botches a breakout. Colorado’s forward depth likely can’t keep up on the scoresheet.
The path to a first-round upset may be as arduous as it is specific, but Seattle traced it in Game 1.
“They slowed us down,” Nieto said.
