Kiz: With the Broncos riding high after breaking their losing streak to Kansas City, maybe we need to pull them over for a sobriety check. They’re talking about the playoffs! Playoffs?!?! Heck, running back Javonte Williams is talking about the Super Bowl. It will take no fewer than nine victories, and probably 10, for Denver to secure a wild-card bid. Can a team with a 3-5 record get there without winning in Buffalo, where the Broncos figure to be at least a touchdown underdog?
Gabriel: Bookie Kiz, coming in hot. BetOnline installed the Bills as an early 7.5-point favorite. Spot on. Need I remind you that the Chiefs were eight-point favorites at Empower Field before the Broncos took care of business? Have you no faith? Wait, that was supposed to be in sarcasm font. A playoff run is possible without a Monday night win, but you’re going to need a long winning streak somewhere in there. Four games minimum, probably five. We’ve seen the Broncos play better in recent weeks, but count me as skeptical that we’ve seen a team that has the kind of consistency to pull that off.
Kiz: I’m all for the optimism by players who have finally found a formula for winning games, but here’s the reality for the Broncos: They still rank 15th among 16 teams in the AFC. And nobody has a worse record in the conference than Denver, which has lost four of five games against AFC opponents. With winning percentage in conference games an important tie-breaker among contenders fighting for wild-card bids, the Broncos can kiss their postseason chances goodbye if they lose more than once in their remaining seven games against AFC foes.
Gabriel: Yeah, that’s a good point. Ten wins almost always gets a team in. Nine has only done it three times in 10 occurrences over the two years since the NFL went to 17 games. So let’s be real about what that looks like if they lose to Buffalo. To get to 10, you have to finish 7-1. To get to nine and be in the picture, 6-2. So you’ve got to run through Minnesota, defensive stalwart Cleveland, upstart Houston as part of a three-game road swing (the Chargers and Detroit follow) and then a three-game finishing kick of New England, the Chargers again and a trip to Las Vegas (aka Antonio Pierce’s house). It’s the NFL, which means Denver will probably be in most or all of those games. But it’s the NFL, which means it’s unlikely they all fall your way.
Kiz: After being touted as a legit Super Bowl contender prior to this season, Buffalo currently finds itself in a tough spot, on the outside of the playoff field, desperate to get back in. Although the Bills do have weaknesses Denver might exploit, this game is every bit as crucial to them as it is to the Broncos. A loss wouldn’t mathematically eliminate the Broncos’ dream of shocking the NFL world by making a playoff run, but it would be impossible for me to take their playoff talk seriously if they fail to return from Buffalo with a W.
Gabriel: Payton is fond of explaining home record, road record, bad-weather record, etc. with a qualifier. If you’re good on the road, good when it snows, good in primetime, it probably just means you’re good. That’s really the part that matters here. If Denver comes back from Buffalo with a win, not only does the team have three straight on the board, but it will lend another dose of credulity to the notion that this group really has figured out who it is and what its best recipe is for winning games. The math isn’t pretty either way, really, but here’s one other way to paint the picture, thanks to the New York times’ playoff odds calculator. Let’s say the Broncos win four straight after the Buffalo game. Playoff odds if they also beat the Bills: 63%. If they don’t: 26%.
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