How’s this for a coincidence: The top two remaining centers on the NHL trade market both fit the description of pending UFAs in their 30s, captains in the Central valued most for their 200-foot game, and former Conn Smythe winners.

The Avs need a top-six forward, preferably a center. Either of the big names would provide a boost at the March 3 trade deadline. So who makes more sense: Ryan O’Reilly or Jonathan Toews?

The background

O’Reilly: In 14 NHL seasons since Colorado drafted him, he has been involved in multiple consequential trades. O’Reilly helped elevate the Blues from a perennial playoff team to a Stanley Cup contender, and he scored five goals in the 2019 Final. He has 49 points in 51 playoff games while in St. Louis, but the Blues have regressed this season with key players in contract years. They already traded Vladimir Tarasenko, signaling a rebuild.

Toews: A Chicago lifer since being picked third in 2006. The future Hall of Famer led the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups and won his Conn Smythe at age 21. The first half of his career was defined by clutch moments (11 playoff game-winners), but the Blackhawks’ dynasty has fizzled since 2015. They’re in full tank mode.

The (current) player profiles

O’Reilly: After nine consecutive 50-point seasons, this has been a down year — O’Reilly’s fewest PPG (.462) since 2010-11 in Colorado. But his expected goals for rate (49.95%) is much better than Toews’ 37.24% mark, evidence that it helps to be surrounded by better players. Colorado linemates would be another upgrade: O’Reilly’s gritty style fits alongside Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin. He’s also a good penalty killer.

The Avalanche’s biggest weakness is 5-on-5 scoring. They average 1.74 GPG, well below the 2.04 league average. With a 14.04% 5-on-5 shooting percentage, O’Reilly would immediately be third-best on the team (minimum 50 shots).

Toews: His game has also declined, but Toews is still an effective two-way center, playing PK and PP. At his best, he posted a league-leading 63.35% xGF in 2012-13. His 5-on-5 scoring is down this season (four of his 14 goals), but he’s still producing elsewhere for the lowest-scoring team in the league.

One element of his game that hasn’t budged with age? The faceoff circle. Toews leads the NHL with a 63.3% rate this season. The Avs are 27th in the league at 46.1%. Toews is also the all-time leader in shootout goals, which is only a regular-season perk but helpful if Colorado is playing meaningful games in April. Through 53 games, 25 have been decided by one goal, including 14 requiring overtime.

The money

O’Reilly: $7.5 million. Half that would be $3.75 million if the Blues retained.

Toews: $10.5 million. More likely to necessitate a third-party broker team, at which point Colorado could pay as low as $2.625 million.

The critical component here is the salary cap. The Avs haven’t been able to accrue space because they’ve been using LTIR, which allows teams to surpass the cap to account for injuries. But there might be a development. With Erik Johnson (lower body) out “indefinitely,” the team is unsure if his injury will stretch into the playoffs. Johnson carries a $6 million cap hit, so if he goes on LTIR, it suddenly frees space to help nullify the $7 million that will count if/when Landeskog returns. The cap is enforced in the regular season — not the playoffs — but Johnson’s timeline would have to legitimately line up, lest the league come investigating.

The biggest hurdles

O’Reilly: He doesn’t have a no-trade clause, but he recently told The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford, “I hope I don’t get moved.” It’s difficult to part with a captain who wants to stay. Perhaps the Blues will decide to trade Ivan Barbashev but extend O’Reilly and rebuild around him. O’Reilly is recently back from a broken foot, so health is no longer a hurdle. But after a history of difficult contract negotiations between him and Colorado, there is the topic of letting bygones be bygones.

Toews: He wields the power with a no-movement clause. There’s a question of a personal connection to Chicago (not to mention legacy) at play. Does Toews even want to wear a second jersey in his illustrious career after establishing himself as one of the preeminent Chicago athletes of this century? Would his desire to make another playoff run outweigh that? He hasn’t revealed anything publicly. He’s also out with an illness currently, which could be a concern to monitor.

The cost

The counterpoint to the Toews hurdle is that his clause makes it more difficult for Chicago to get a substantial return if he hand-picks one desired team — whereas the Blues have an open market and potential to get more out of O’Reilly.

A faction of Avalanche fans wants Sam Girard to be traded, but a top-four defenseman with four more years under contract would be a flat-out overpay for a rental. The more likely exchange rate is a pick (or picks) and a prospect. The Avs’ 2023 first-rounder is fragile real estate, but they don’t have a second this year or next. Tough decisions loom.

Depending on how Johnson’s injury status develops, it’s possible Colorado could have to throw in another small contract to offload cap space. Forward prospects would be the Avalanche’s preferable currency vs. young NHLers, though, even with a weak prospect pool. Options include Oskar Olausson, Jean-Luc Foudy and Ben Meyers.

The verdict

There are more hoops to jump through to facilitate a Toews trade, and nobody knows his current head space or health status. O’Reilly theoretically costs a bit more, but he fills most of the same needs while seeming more feasible — for now.

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