Jonathan Taylor is a killer off-road tire, slightly worn, on a car with dodgy brakes. Uphill, the grip is incredible. Downhill, you’ll still be grabbing rosary beads.
The NFL’s leading rusher in 2021 wants a trade out of Indy, with the Colts reportedly, as of Monday night, willing to oblige. Meanwhile, the Broncos have run the ball this month like an F-450 Super Duty and pass-protected like a Peel P50. So far, coach Sean Payton has picked up largely where Week 18 of ’22 left off, leading with a strong ground game, in which Russell Wilson’s right arm is a side dish and not the main course.
In keeping with that theme, there’s a part of Broncos Country that could picture Taylor, a power back with sprinter’s speed, breaking tackles in orange and blue and keeping Patrick Mahomes bored on the sidelines. You could even tell yourself Taylor might be the new Beast Mode to old Russ, a formula that worked pretty darn well a decade earlier.
But have you looked at the price tag? Per ESPN.com, the Colts are seeking “a first-round pick or a collection of picks that equates to one.”
So to land Taylor, the Broncos would have to add to what’s already a position of strength — the running backs room — while cutting another big chunk out of a lopsided roster’s greatest weakness: depth. And draft-pick depth, in particular.
No thanks.
Even if backup tailback Jaleel McLaughlin didn’t come out of the weekend looking like the second coming of Darren Sproles, trading for Taylor, if those are Indy’s terms, should be a nonstarter for Broncos GM George Paton.
Dove Valley might have the will to plop a Pro Bowl runner next to Wilson. But it doesn’t have the capital — not in current cap room, not in future cap space, and sure as heck not in terms of draft picks, the most cost-effective way to improve or refresh a capped locker room. Much of the latter already got shaved off and shipped out in trades for Big Russ and for Payton.
As a result, for the first three rounds of the ’24 NFL Draft, Days 1 and 2, the Broncos have just two picks to play with. The average NFL franchise has 3.2 selections. Seven clubs already four picks or more stashed up for Rounds 1-3.
And while the Broncos have needs, tailback isn’t one of them. Javonte Williams needs time to get fully up to speed, but the way he moved past both the dropsies and butterflies against the Niners was plenty encouraging. Bonus: Payton can back that up with pure thunder (Samaje Perine) or greased lightning (McLaughlin), depending on the down, distance, mood or imagination.
Alas, doesn’t solve the Broncos’ biggest problem — nor what’s contributed, in part, to a pair of irrelevant, if galling, last-second road losses to the Cardinals and Niners. Namely, the pedigree, or lack thereof, on the bottom 40% of the roster.
The Broncos’ third team defense, per the team depth chart Monday, was composed of nine undrafted free agents and two sixth-rounders. The 49ers’ third-team offense, as projected by Ourlads.com, featured eight college free agents, a first-round pick, a third-round pick and a seventh-round pick. The Rams’ third-team offense is projected to feature seven undrafted free agents, a fourth-rounder, a seventh-rounder and two sixth-rounders.
Most NFL rosters take a dip when the two-deep gets dinged up.
The Broncos plummet.
Nor does it help that Taylor’s seeking a long-term contract extension as part of a potential swap. Based on OverTheCap.com’s math, the Broncos have $9.09 million of salary cap space to play with this fall, which was seventh-smallest in the league as of early Monday night. They’re projected to be over the cap by $17.66 million next year.
Jerry Jeudy’s rookie contract remains a relative bargain with a $4.83 million cap hit. After ‘24, though, all bets are off. Spotrac.com pegs No. 10’s value on the open market at $20.1 million, on average, over four years starting in 2025.
Speaking of bargains, Pat Surtain II’s four-year rookie contract expires after the autumn of 2024, with a fifth-year option for 2025. The top four cap hits for corners in 2024 average out to $25.8 million; the top four hits at the position for ’25 average out to $25.2 million.
Franchise cornerbacks, like elite left tackles and pass-rushers, don’t come cheap. Neither will Taylor, sadly. And when faced with those kind of mark-ups at tailback, the prudent call, ironically, is almost always the same. A hard pass.
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