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Analysis: Why the Nuggets are failing to defend Miami Heat 3-pointers in NBA Finals, and how Denver can adjust in Game 3

MIAMI — The screener was actually the screenee. Max Strus slithered from the baseline toward the top of the key, positioning himself to set a pick to Jimmy Butler’s right. But Strus sprung into his next motion immediately.

The Heat anticipated Denver switching on the ball screen. Jamal Murray, originally on Strus, stayed put as Butler took a dribble to his right. Butler’s matchup, Aaron Gordon, started sliding right to guard the screener. But he blindly collided with a wall of Bam. Miami center Bam Adebayo had lifted from the foul line, screening for Strus. With Butler’s initial move to the right, Miami had used the Nuggets’ screen coverage against them. Butler passed to an open Strus on the left wing. Nikola Jokic lunged too late for an effective close-out.

Brick.

That was Game 1. After a win, coach Michael Malone was nonetheless critical of Denver’s perimeter defense. The Heat simply didn’t make open 3-point shots (33%). Strus was 0 for 9. On the next possession after that well-designed play, he clanked an even more open 3.  All that was missing for Miami was the confidence of seeing it go in.

The Nuggets weren’t so lucky in Game 2.

Cooling off the Heat is now the most urgent issue facing Denver as a deadlocked NBA Finals moves to Miami. The South Beach underdogs lead the playoffs in 3-point percentage, and their 111-108 win Sunday was a more accurate representation of that threat.

Like that example from the series opener, the Heat devised a myriad of plays using multiple, staggered screens to create open shots. They finished 17 for 35. When Adebayo or Cody Zeller set the pick, shooters exploited Jokic’s drop coverage by going around the screen and pulling the trigger. Other times, seven open looks were created by a drive-and-kick — the domino effect of Denver getting beat off the dribble.

Denver was always a step behind, be it due to miscommunication or lack of effort, as Malone has pinpointed.

“We’ve had some breakdowns that are uncharacteristic of us,” Aaron Gordon said.

Strus was the central figure of Miami’s shaky start, and his redemption spurred the reversal of fate. He attempted Miami’s first seven 3s of Game 2, making four as problems resurfaced for the Nuggets.

In the first minute of the game, Miami ran a baseline out-of-bounds set with two players (Gabe Vincent and Kevin Love) stacked on the side where Strus was inbounding. The top player (Vincent) rotated underneath to pin down Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was guarding Strus. Strus lofted it to Adebayo up top, then circled around Vincent’s screen to the perimeter. Jamal Murray, guarding Vincent, had followed him without realizing until too late that Vincent’s cut was to set a screen. Murray was stuck a mile away, and Michael Porter Jr. didn’t get around Love’s pindown until the last second. Miami had a play prepared and prioritized to get Strus open as a show of faith. It sparked him.

Porter had an especially rough night defensively. On the off day in Miami, he identified one problem he was encountering.

“They are playing off of our coverages,” he said. “They are hearing what we are communicating to each other, and they’re doing the opposite. If we say ‘switch,’ they are slipping out for open 3s. And if we don’t say ‘switch,’ they are actually going to set the screen.”

It started as early as the Heat’s second attempt. Porter was guarding Vincent on the left wing when Strus approached for a half-baked screen right. Caldwell-Pope automatically switched onto the ball, but Porter also stayed on Vincent. Strus slipped to the corner and drained an open 3. As Malone called timeout, KCP threw his hands up in apparent exasperation.

Minutes later, Gordon guarded Butler on the right wing. Strus circled from the weak side and started to set a ball screen left, but then he suddenly kept moving to the corner. Murray was on Strus this time. He switched onto the ball, but Gordon also stayed on Butler until it was too late. Strus was alone again.

Both were probably supposed to be switches, based on other evidence. In the second quarter, Vincent brought the ball up to the left wing. Strus ran the same action — starting to set a screen then popping to the corner. But Bruce Brown and Christian Braun both immediately switched, and Braun contested a bad pull-up attempt by Vincent.

Miscommunications and mental lapses mauled the Nuggets as Miami out-chess-moved Denver throughout the game.

In the third, Porter floated in the lane for an entire possession, not guarding anybody. Vincent was wide open for 10 seconds before a teammate finally found him. Malone called another timeout.

Early in the fourth quarter, Gordon tried to switch on a ball screen right. But anticipating it after 36 minutes, Vincent drove left instead. Gordon had stepped up on the wrong side of Adebayo, thinking Vincent would go right. He was stuck chasing, so Vincent’s drive pulled two help defenders inside. Vincent kicked to open Kyle Lowry, who swung it to open Duncan Robinson, who shot-faked Murray off his feet. (Poor discipline.) Open 3.

The Heat started the quarter 5 for 6. Braun struggled. He got screened off-ball while guarding Robinson, prompting Bruce Brown to switch onto a cutting Robinson. But Braun also pursued, not obeying the switch. The screener (Vincent) popped. Wide open.

Perhaps the Nuggets need to discover a new method of communication, if Porter is correct about Miami’s listening skills. Or maybe they need to be on the same page more often to begin with. Either way, the series hinges on their next steps.

“(Miami) got the same amount of open shots they got Game 1 and Game 2,” Caldwell-Pope said, “but Game 2, they knocked them down.”

In Game 3, it’s best the Nuggets don’t leave that to chance.

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