BOULDER — To me, betting on Pat Shurmur to win the Big 12 sounds an awful lot like betting on Mr. Toad to win the Brickyard 400.
But America sure loves an impulse buy, so as of last week, per BetMGM, the school getting the most action in terms of winning the league wasn’t favorites such as Kansas State (+350) or Utah (+350). Oh, no. It was Deion Sanders and the Buffs (+3,000), with 30% of the bets on CU winning it all.
Have y’all lost your darn minds?
“We’re not waiting for Year 3 to win,” assistant head coach/running backs coach Gary “Flea” Harrell said Monday as the Buffs opened preseason camp. “We’re not waiting for midseason … it has to happen now. So (Sanders) has that ‘now’ approach. So every day he comes into work, his mentality, his thought process, his message, his philosophy is the same. He (doesn’t) deviate from it. That’s why he’s Deion Sanders.”
Hey, it’s your scratch. Just know that when it comes to Coach Prime, it feels as if only the computers can be neutral — and even your favorite AI is hedging its digital bets.
ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Buffs finishing 6-6. CU reaches six wins, usually the minimum for bowl eligibility, on 53.2% of the FPI’s simulations. TeamRanking.com’s CPUs are almost in complete agreement on the record (6-6) and odds of a bowl (53.5%).
Can the Buffs win nine or 10 games this fall with Shurmur, who crashed and burned as Broncos offensive coordinator, calling plays? Probably not. Unless these five things happen first.
1. Shedeur Sanders stays upright. (Duh.) And in one piece.
Can you order an entirely new offensive line the way you’d order a replacement air filter on Amazon? We’re about to find out.
For context, the top 12 teams in the final College Football Playoff rankings last fall gave up, on average, 1.61 sacks per game. CU surrendered 4.7. Cutting that number by even half — 2.5-ish, 2.4-ish sacks per game — would feel like a major victory in and of itself.
Heck, if the Buffs can manage that, forget giving Phil Loadholt a raise. Give that man a Nobel Prize.
2. Shedeur Sanders is the best QB in America. Hands down.
Deion says he is. Deion says a lot of things. Talk to Deion long enough, you’ll think that tailback Charlie Offerdahl — and we love Charlie, don’t get us wrong — is the next Christian McCaffrey.
What impressed the skeptics and scouts last fall was Shedeur’s actions on the field. Not his dad’s words.
We know the younger Sanders can win a one-possession game by himself, as long as there’s a sliver of time left on the clock. The next confidence test Shedeur fails will be his first. He’s got that Elway Quality already — the ability to drive the length of the field pretty much by himself in the clutch.
But can he stay healthy? Can he get rid of balls and give up on a play rather than hang on too long and get lit up? Can he sacrifice “hero ball” moments for the sake of the offense? Or for his well-being?
3. Travis Hunter plays in double-digit games.
The book on Hunter coming out of Jackson State was that he was coming to Boulder with almost the whole package, all neatly wrapped in a bow: NFL closing speed, NFL wheels, NFL instincts, NFL hands, NFL hops, NFL vision … and problems staying on the field. If you hit him hard enough, they whispered, he might be out weeks.
That’s pretty much what happened.
The nation’s former No. 1 recruit played in eight games in 2022 and nine last fall with the Buffs. Now conventional wisdom would say to limit his snaps the way you cap a star pitcher’s innings in order to try and keep Hunter fresh for November and December.
Couple of problems with that. One is that we already know what Deion thinks of “conventional wisdom,” unless he’s hearing said wisdom from a friend, mentor or former coach. Two, Hunter’s not playing in any bowl game that isn’t a playoff tilt anyway, given his NFL draft stock. So why stick a snap count on a player who’s shifting into draft mode after the first week of December? Because he’s your best player, that’s why.
4. Buffs are at least 3-1 after four weeks.
September is sneaky. A little birdie told me North Dakota State — with 27 seniors and 10 sixth-year returnees — has the heart, but not the horses to run with a Prime roster. Although when has that ever stopped the Bison before?
That said, the last time CU had a major talent advantage over an opponent was the Stanford game last October. We all know how that one ended up.
Assuming CU comes out blazing the way it did at TCU last fall, you’ve got to nail at least a split from two of the toughest, and certainly most emotionally raw, road games of the season: At Nebraska on Sept. 7; at CSU on Sept. 14. Sweep those and you’re ranked again. (Hiya, Nick Saban!) Split them and you’re still probably in pretty good shape — assuming No. 2 and No. 12 are as well.
The four roadies after Sept. 22 — at UCF, at Arizona, at Texas Tech and at Kansas in Kansas City — are all coin flips, so long as the stars are healthy (and aligned). While K-State (Oct. 12), Utah (Nov. 16) and Oklahoma State (Nov. 29) won’t be picnics, at least they’re at Folsom.
5. Pencil Pat opens it up.
Memo to Shurmur: This ain’t Iowa ball, brother. The Buffs went 4-3 last season when throwing it at least 40 times; 0-5 when they didn’t. They were 3-2 with a 300-yard passer, 1-6 without one. Could Pencil Pat screw this wild ride up, even with two top 10 draft picks to play with? Don’t bet against it.
Originally Published: July 29, 2024 at 8:15 p.m.
