Colorado State (3-3, 1-1 MW) vs. UNLV (5-1, 2-0 MW)
When/where: 5 p.m. Saturday/Allegiant Stadium
TV/Radio: Mountain West Network/1600 AM, 104.3 HD2
BetMGM Line: UNLV -7.5, 64.5 over/under
Weather: Dome stadium.
Five storylines
Is UNLV … good?: After six games, the Rebels have matched their highest single-season win total in 10 seasons and are off to their best start since 1984. So, at first glance, it appears UNLV finally has a team. But a further examination of the Rebels’ five wins indicates they haven’t beaten one team with a winning record. In fact, the combined record of those opponents is 9-26, including FCS Bryant (3-3). That falls in line with where UNLV sits in advanced metrics like ESPN’s predictive SP+ rankings (No. 87). Thus, the jury is still out on first-year head coach Barry Odom’s squad.
Underdogs, again: One place that does appear to be buying the former Mizzou head coach’s program? Vegas, baby. The Rebels enter Saturday night’s game as more than a touchdown favorite in Vegas, marking the fifth time CSU has been an underdog out of six games with point spreads so far this season. UNLV has the 14th-best scoring offense (37.5) and 75th-best scoring defense (26.83), which means this one could easily turn into a shootout. Especially since the Rebels defense isn’t particularly great against the pass (284.2 yards allowed/game, ninth-worst in FBS).
Air it out: Of course, that depends on what version of the CSU pass game shows up. The one that played the first three-and-a-half quarters of last week’s win over Boise State surely isn’t scaring anyone. But the one that pulled off one of the most miraculous comebacks in Rams football history certainly does. QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi still has yet to start a college football game and not throw at least one interception. He has an FBS-worst 11 picks in five starts this fall, including two vs. Boise last Saturday. But then he throws a pass like the 44-yard strike to Tory Horton that set up Dallin Holker’s Hail Mary grab, and it’s easy to see why he’s ninth in the country in passing yards (1,944).
Ground game: One area where the Rams will need to see immediate improvement? Rush defense. Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty torched CSU for 212 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries last week. CSU can’t afford that sort of leaky run defense against UNLV, which has the ninth-best run game in FBS (221.5 yards/game) and a collection of backs to give the ball to.
Backfield depth: Speaking of the run game, the Rams have found themselves digging deep into the depth chart due to injuries in the backfield — and that’s likely to continue. Head coach Jay Norvell ruled Kobe Johnson out for the rest of the season this week, but expressed optimism to reporters that Avery Morrow could return Saturday. Morrow hasn’t played since suffering an injury Sept. 23 at MTSU. Walk-on Vann Schield, a Rock Canyon High grad, has filled in ably with 146 yards on 42 carries, but it sure would help CSU’s run game (68.8 yards/games, third worst in FBS) to get Morrow back in uniform.
Predictions
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: UNLV 31, CSU 24
Two things got lost in the Holy Holker Hail Mary that saved the Rammies last week. The first-half run defense (wretched) and the first-half touches for Tory Horton (two). Is the real CSU D the one that allowed 177 rush yards at halftime to Boise? Or the one that cut that total to just 67 after the break? The Rebs (and Air Force … and Wyoming … rinse, repeat) are gonna punch the Green and Gold in the mouth until they make ’em stop it. Or they bleed to death.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: CSU 35, UNLV 34
If there’s one place where the Rebels are vulunerable, it’s in the secondary. While their pass rush has shown an ability to generate pressure (2.83 sacks/game), that’s not the issue it once was for CSU. With receiver Tory Horton and tight end Dallin Holker set for big nights, all the Rams need are a few red zone stops. Here’s guessing they get two, and Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi works his late-game magic.
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