Colorado State (3-6, 1-4 MW) vs. San Diego State (3-6, 1-4 MW)

When/where: 5 p.m. Saturday/Canvas Stadium

TV/Radio: CBSSN/1600 AM, 104.3 HD2

BetMGM Line: CSU -3.5, 46.5 over/under

Weather: 51 degrees, clear

Five storylines

BFN roller coaster: CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi’s turnover troubles cropped up again last week, with the freshman throwing two picks and fumbling the ball away once in the second half of a 24-15 loss at Wyoming. Going up against an SDSU pass defense that ranks in the bottom third of FBS at 254 yards allowed/game, Fowler-Nicolosi should have himself an evening in FoCo — so long as he avoids adding to his FBS-worst interception total (13).

How’s Horton: It’s been painful to watch Tory Horton the past few weeks. CSU’s senior wide receiver has had multiple trips to the medical tent while getting knocked around seemingly every week, including last Friday in Laramie, when he managed seven catches for 58 yards on a heavily taped ankle. He’s now 152 yards shy of his second straight 1,000-yard receiving season. The only question is whether he’ll be able to stay on the field long enough to get there.

Aztec atrophy: Excluding the bizarre pandemic season of 2020, it’s been 14 years since San Diego State failed to qualify for a bowl. If Brady Hoke’s Aztecs suffer one more loss, that run ends this fall. For a long time, the Aztec program was built on a salty defense and physical run game. SDSU isn’t great at either this season, with the defense 107th in FBS in total yards allowed/game (417.8) and the run game 83rd in rush yards/game (144.1). Rock bottom was a 6-0 loss at previously winless Nevada three weeks ago.

Running for daylight: Even with senior Avery Morrow able to carry the load last week in Laramie, the CSU run game continued to sputter, registering just 54 yards on 21 carriers. The Rams now have the third-worst run game in FBS at 71.8 yards/game, ahead of only CU (69.1) and Hawaii (65.0). Luckily for them, the last three run defenses on the schedule — SDSU (163.8 yards allowed/game), Nevada (172.0) and Hawaii (176.0) — are in the bottom third of FBS.

Looking for some Mo’: After getting off to a torrid start with 9½ sacks through five games, Mo Kamara has registered just one sack in his last four games. That included a relatively quiet night (three tackles) in Laramie. The senior defensive lineman won’t get a lot of opportunities against a run-heavy Aztec attack that allows just 1.78 sacks/game, but it sure would be a boost if he could take advantage of them.

Predictions

Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 28, San Diego State 27

It’s been a season of growing pains in Fort Collins, most notably at quarterback, where freshman Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is coming off an ugly Border War performance in which he tossed two costly third-quarter interceptions. It’s now or never for Jay Norvell’s squad to start to grow up — because a bowl game is still very much in the cards if the Rams start to perform to their capabilities down the stretch against teams they are favored against.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CSU 21, SDSU 20

Unlike the Buffs, November actually sets up well for coach Jay Norvell and the Rams … as long as they protect the ball. The Aztecs are 0-5 when committing more turnovers than their opponents; 1-0 when the ratio’s even; 2-1 with fewer turnovers. Time for the Rammies to pull out that ’22 Nevada playbook and release their inner Kirk Ferentz: run, run, run, win the field-position battle, and tell Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi to keep it simple unless you need him chuckin’ and duckin’  in the game’s final 8-10 minutes.

Matt Schubert, sports editor: CSU 26, SDSU 20

It’s win out or miss out on bowl season for the sixth consecutive year for the Rams. Luckily for them, their last three games are against the dregs of the Mountain West. If Jay Norvell’s program is going to show growth in Year 2, that means beating the teams you should beat at home. And San Diego State is one of those teams.