The CHSAA state football playoffs are down to 16 teams in the top three classifications. Here’s a look at this weekend’s slate in all three with quarterfinal spots up for grabs.

Class 5A

The chalk

Never say never in prep football. But in regards to these matchups, we’ll go with “highly unlikely” the underdog wins.

No. 17 Legacy (7-4) at No. 1 Cherry Creek (10-0), 7 p.m.: Not only have the Bruins won 15 straight playoff games, they’ve advanced to the quarterfinals 10 years in a row. Translation: The odds are very much stacked against Legacy.

No. 18 Fountain-Fort Carson (8-3) at No. 2 Columbine (10-0), 7:30 p.m.: FFC pulled off a stunner last week, chewing up 389 yards on the ground in a 42-14 thrashing of No. 15 Fairview. Here’s guessing Columbine’s defense offers a bit more resistance.

No. 13 Denver East (9-2) at No. 4 Pine Creek (9-1), 7 p.m.: Did East turn some heads with its 23-7 defensive tour de force vs. Mullen last week? Yup. Does anyone have an answer for East junior DJ Crowe (29.5 tackles for loss)? Probably not. Can the Angels pull the same magic in Colorado Springs? Our Magic 8 Ball says “Outlook not so good.”

No. 12 Rock Canyon (8-3) No. 5 Ralston Valley (8-2), 7 p.m.: The Jaguars needed an end zone fumble recovery to survive upset-minded Arvada West last week. Ralston Valley beat that same team by two touchdowns.

The toss-ups

The winners here likely get a shot at one of 5A’s two unbeatens, Cherry Creek and Columbine, next round.

No. 9 Castle View (8-3) at No. 8 Mountain Vista (8-2), 6 p.m.: Don’t let the score of their first meeting (34-17, MV) fool you. That was a 20-17 game entering the fourth quarter. In a matchup of strength (Castle View defense) vs. strength (Mountain Vista pass game), this one should be fun.

No. 10 Legend (8-3) at No. 7 Valor Christian (6-4), 7 p.m.: Valor has ended Legend’s season two of the last three years, including a 42-14 thrashing in last year’s Round of 16. After scoring 92 points combined it their last two games, are the Titans primed for revenge?

Upset watch

Only one double-digit seed has reached the 5A quarterfinals since 2016, so any upset would be monumental.

No. 14 Chatfield (6-5) at No. 3 Arapahoe (8-2), 7 p.m.: The Chargers, forced to forfeit two early season wins, are not your average No. 14 seed. The Warriors better come ready.

No. 11 Grandview (7-4) at No. 6 Regis Jesuit (6-4), 6:30 p.m.: Grandview has reached the 5A quarterfinals each of the past two seasons with Air Force pledge Liam Szarka taking snaps at QB. Regis is going for its fifth straight quarterfinal trip. Something’s gotta give.

Class 4A

The chalk

In Class 4A, it appears there’s Palmer Ridge, Erie and Montrose, and then everyone else. 

No. 17 Denver South (7-4) at No. 1 Palmer Ridge (10-0), 7 p.m.: The Ravens went down south and scored an upset in the Springs last week, knocking off Vista Ridge in a 27-26 thriller. The last time Palmer Ridge took the field, it beat those same Wolves, 51-0.

No. 15 Rampart (7-4) at No. 2 Erie (9-1), 7 p.m.: Rampart and senior RB Maciu Ramaqa (1,174 yards, 19 TDs rushing) can score (32.6 points/game) with the best of them. Unfortunately for the Rams, Erie QB Blake Barnett (39 TDs passing/rushing) is the best of them.

No. 14 Pueblo West (7-4) at No. 3 Montrose (8-2), 1 p.m. Saturday: These two met in Week 10, with Montrose scoring 33 straight points to start the festivities. That’s a lot of ground for the Cyclones to make up in just two weeks’ time.

The toss-ups

Surprise, surprise. The 7-10 seed games figure to be the most entertaining of the bunch.

No. 10 Thomas Jefferson (10-1) at No. 7 Dakota Ridge (7-3), 4 p.m.: The Spartans played two teams with winning records — Ponderosa and Denver South — and split those games. Dakota Ridge played six, and went 3-3. Do with that information what you will.

No. 9 Golden (9-2) at No. 8 Heritage (6-4), 11 a.m. Saturday: Looking for a back-and-forth shootout? This one should fit the bill. Heritage comes in averaging 41.4 points/game, and Golden 32.3. First one to 35 wins?

Upset watch

With 4A arguably the most wide-open classification, this could be the year we get a few stunners in the Round of 16. 

No. 13 Fruita Monument (8-3) at No. 4 Broomfield (8-2), 11 a.m. Saturday: This is a rematch of what was essentially the 4A Metro League title game in Week 9. Broomfield went into the Western Slope and came away a 21-6 winner, but that was a one-score game going into the fourth quarter.

No. 12 Loveland (8-3) at No. 5 Mesa Ridge (7-3), 7 p.m.: None of Loveland’s eight wins have come against a team that currently sports a winning record, but the Red Wolves have also reached the 4A quarterfinals three straight years. Making that four in a row will be no easy task.

No. 11 Windsor (9-2) at No. 6 Ponderosa (7-3), 6 p.m.: It’s never easy beating a red-hot team, and both of these squads qualify. Windsor has won six in a row since losing to 5A Fossil Ridge and 4A No. 2 Erie in September, and the Mustangs are riding a five-game win streak after their own three-game slide.

Class 3A

The chalk

Good luck picking a state champion out of the top four seeds, because any one of them could walk away with the trophy.

No. 16 Glenwood Springs (5-5) at No. 1 Green Mountain (10-0), 1 p.m. Saturday: It’s been four weeks since Green Mountain last allowed a team to score. And it’s been 10 weeks since the Rams beat a team by less than 37 points. Yikes.

No. 15 Denver North (6-4) at No. 2 Holy Family (9-1), 6 p.m.: A tip of the cap to Denver North for its first playoff bid in recent memory and just its fourth winning season since 2004. Now comes a date with a Holy Family team with four wins over teams currently alive in the 4A and 3A brackets.

No. 14 Discovery Canyon (8-2) at No. 3 Thompson Valley (8-2), 7 p.m.: Discovery Canyon has won seven in a row since starting the season 1-2. Now they just have to beat the best team Thompson Valley has put together in 18 years.

No. 13 Mead (5-5) at No. 4 Durango (8-1), 1 p.m. Saturday: These two teams met in Longmont in Week 5, and Durango came away with a 30-16 win. The Mavericks have gone 4-2 since, but that’s a long, long, long trip to southwest Colorado.

The toss-ups

Maybe you’re noticing a theme here with the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups across the top three classifications? 

No. 10 Lewis-Palmer (8-2) at No. 7 Resurrection Christian (7-2), 1 p.m. Saturday: Resurrection Christian was one half away from a league title-clinching win over Thompson Valley last week. Now the Cougars must contend with high-scoring Lewis-Palmer (38.4 points/game) in the first round.

No. 9 Roosevelt (8-2) at No. 8 Riverdale Ridge (8-2), 7 p.m.: Roosevelt is good enough to beat a team like No. 2 Holy Family (34-26), and vulnerable enough to nearly get doubled-up by both Resurrection Christian (40-20) and Thompson Valley (41-21). Not an easy draw in Riverdale Ridge’s first playoff appearance.

Upset watch

Three double-digit seeds advanced to the 3A quarterfinals last fall. Could we see another round of stunners this year? 

No. 12 Frederick (6-4) at No. 5 Lutheran (8-2), 7 p.m.: Frederick played a brutal schedule that included four teams that reached the 3A playoffs (2-2), one 4A playoff qualifier (Monarch) and a Scottsbluff squad that advanced to the quarterfinals of Nebraska’s Class B bracket. Translation: Lutheran gets a battle-tested Golden Eagles squad.

No. 11 Northfield (7-3) at No. 6 Pueblo Central (9-1), 7 p.m.: In Northfield’s three losses, the Nighthawks held halftime leads against both No. 2 Holy and No. 5 Lutheran and took 4A playoff qualifier Vista Ridge to OT. Pueblo Central and its explosive offense (39.1 points/game) will have their hands full.

* All games Friday night unless otherwise noted

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