The first snow has blanketed the Front Range and dozens of Colorado high school football teams have put away the tackling dummies. It’s state playoff time — for everyone but Class 3A — and the brackets are set. Here’s what to watch for with the big schools in Class 5A and 4A:
Class 5A
The Favorite
Cherry Creek: Could it really be anyone other than the four-time defending 5A champs? As has been the case throughout its unprecedented run under coach Dave Logan, Creek is loaded in the trenches with a shutdown defense (10.4 points allowed/game), efficient quarterback play (21 TDs/4 INTs) and an endless stream of skill position talent. The top-seeded Bruins (10-0) are not only unbeaten, they’ve faced a second-half deficit just twice all fall. Until someone actually ends the Bruins’ 15-game state playoff win streak, they are the team to beat.
The Challengers
Columbine: The only other unbeaten left in 5A, the second-seeded Rebels (10-0) may be the biggest threat to Creek’s throne. They beat the only team (Arapahoe) that actually made Creek sweat in a fourth quarter. They also have one of the most dominant run games in 5A (315.8 yards/game) and a salty defense (10.4 points allowed/game) to match. So, essentially, the same formula coach Andy Lowry has ridden to five state titles at Columbine. But unlike other Rebel teams of recent vintage, this one has a QB (Reeve Holliday) who can take over when the moment calls for it. Just ask Arapahoe, which Holliday carved up for 240 yards on 17-of-20 passing in a wild 31-29 win in Week 4.
Arapahoe: It’s been 32 years since the No. 3 Warriors last reached a state title game, and 53 since they last won it. And there’s zero doubt this group has the ability to end both droughts. Senior QB Michael Moynihan (1,437 yards, 18 TDs passing) has two explosive receivers in senior Charlie Eckhardt (39 catches, 639 yards) and junior Andrew Smart (33-562) and a deep backfield that averages 6.1 yards/carry. The defense is opportunistic (11 interceptions, 46 tackles for loss) and stingy (15.5 points/allowed). And the Warriors have already gone toe-to-toe with the only two unbeatens in the classification, holding fourth-quarter leads against both Cherry Creek and Columbine in narrow losses.
The Dark Horse
Valor Christian: There’s so many teams that could qualify for this spot, from 5A Southern League champion Pine Creek (9-1), to Jeffco League runner-up Ralston Valley or surging private school power Regis Jesuit. Instead, we’ll go with the program that’s played in four of the last five 5A championships games and has won five in a row since getting off to a 1-4 start. The seventh-seeded Eagles had to hang on for dear life to take down Mountain Vista and win their ninth straight league title, but this is a program that’s been here before.
Three questions
Which first-round team will be the toughest out?
Again, there are several viable candidates. Grandview and dual threat QB Liam Szarka are a lot to deal with. The Castle View defense is nobody’s idea of a good time. And it’s hard to not be at least a little intrigued by a Denver East defense that’s racked up 116 tackles for loss In the end, though, the choice is obvious: It’s 15th-seeded Fairview, which is a second-half collapse vs. Valor Christian shy of 10-0 and added two FBS talents to the roster mid-season in junior QB Bekkem Kritza (1,451 yards 18 TDs passing over five games) and freshman DE T.K. Cunningham. Simply put, the Knights are dangerous.
Can someone outside of the Denver metro win this?
There have been 31 champions crowned in 5A since 1994 (2021 spring season included). And not a one of them has hailed from anywhere other than the immediate Denver metro area. No teams from Colorado Springs. None from Boulder County. Zero from FoCo. But there is one team, recent 5A addition Pine Creek out of the Springs, that could break the spell. The fourth-seeded Eagles have wins over Valor Christian and Regis Jesuit, and a defense led by Iowa State commit Mason Miller (44 tackles, 9 for loss) that’s allowing just 12 points/game. They reached the 5A semifinals a year ago before eventually losing to Cherry Creek. Has their time finally arrived?
Which rematch would you most like to see?
As is often the case, the 5A bracket is littered with potential rematches, including a first-round matchup between Chatfield and Cherokee Trail on Friday that figures to be quite tasty after the Chargers won their Week 1 tilt, 27-24. (CT was later awarded the win due to Chatfield’s use of an ineligible player.) Instead, we’ll look way ahead to a potential semifinal showdown between No. 2 Columbine and No. 3 Arapahoe. If that Thanksgiving weekend game is anything like their first meeting, which came down to a Rebels fourth-down conversion and Julian Ruiz field goal in the waning moments, then we’re in for quite a treat.
Class 4A
The Favorite
Palmer Ridge: This might be the year the three-time 3A state champions break through at the 4A level. Palmer Ridge moved up in classification prior to the 2020 season and has reached the final once (2020) and semifinals another time (2022) only to be eliminated by Loveland in each instance. Now the top-seeded Bears boast a defense giving up an average of just 8.7 points/game and an offense that’s eclipsed 40 points eight times this season. One of the few times they didn’t achieve the latter was a 29-28 win over third-seeded Montrose, albeit without a healthy Blake Griffin for the Red Hawks. That’s also the only time a team’s come within 21 points of the Bears.
The Challengers
Erie: Senior QB Blake Barnett (10,110 career total yards, 143 TDs passing/rushing) is down to his final shot at a state title before heading off to Kansas State. Barnett had the Tigers on the verge of a championship each of the past two seasons, falling 41-34 to Chatfield in the 2021 title game and eventual champion Broomfield in another instant classic in last year’s semifinals. What might put them over the top this time? The second-seeded Tigers have the defense — led by Washington State pledge Jackson Cowgill (5 sacks, 7 tackles for loss) and senior Preston Terranova (7 interceptions) — to match its explosive offense.
Montrose: This is the team nobody wants to see in November. Armed with a physical ground-and-pound attack led by 2022 All-Colorado running back Blake Griffin, the third-seeded Red Hawks are built to win in the elements. An argument could be made that they should’ve taken down Palmer Ridge in their Week 1 meeting (sans a healthy Griffin). And their only other loss came to second-seeded Erie in a back-and-forth 38-28 loss.
The Dark Horse
Ponderosa: Fifth-seeded Mesa Ridge could easily be the choice here, given the talents of dual threat junior QB Bryce Riehl (1,865 total yards) and senior RB Isaiah Jones (1,382 total yards) and the Grizzlies’ ability to score in bunches (40.5 points/game). Instead, we’ll roll with the sixth-seeded Mustangs, who slogged through a three-game losing streak at midseason but emerged with five consecutive double-digit wins to run away with a league championship. Senior Sean Davis transformed into a workhorse running back over that stretch, piling up 763 yards and 11 TDs on 100 carries. Could it be that Ponderosa discovered its identity at the perfect time?
Three questions
Which first-round team will be the toughest out?
There’s an obvious pick to be made with ninth-seeded Golden, which was one bad second half vs. Dakota Ridge away from winning nine straight to finish the regular season. No. 10 Thomas Jefferson also has a case after going 9-1, culminating with a 21-12 win over Denver South in Week 10. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention 4A Northern League champ Windsor. Still, we’ll go slightly off the board with No. 13 Fruita Monument, which played Broomfield tough in a Week 9 loss and has a three-headed rushing attack with seniors Andres Palafox (162 carries, 948 yards), Amari Wilson (123-865) and Wyatt Sharpe (103-658) that makes life miserable on opposing defenses.
Wait, aren’t you overlooking Broomfield?
Yes, it seems that we are. The fourth-seeded Eagles are not only the defending 4A champions, but they’ve got a 6-foot-5, 300-pound Nebraska commit (Landen Davidson) in the trenches, a defense that’s allowed just 40 points over its last four games and five wins over programs in the 5A and 4A playoff brackets. While the Eagles don’t have the same star power they had at quarterback when Wisconsin commit Cole LaCrue was taking snaps a year ago, they remain deep, talented and capable of playing with anyone.
So, just how wide open is 4A?
Very. Unlike in 5A, there is no prohibitive favorite. Yes, Palmer Ridge is unbeaten, but the Bears have yet to win at this level. Erie has an elite QB and defense but hasn’t won a state title since 1997. Perennial power Loveland is not quite vintage. Defending champion Broomfield has some really good wins — No. 7 Dakota Ridge (49-21) and No. 8 Heritage (28-19) — but also lost to 3A Holy Family (30-29). And while Dakota Ridge beat No. 5 Mesa Ridge (39-35) in a shootout, the Eagles also lost to No. 14 Pueblo West (21-14) and needed 22 unanswered points over the final 18 minutes to get past No. 9 Golden (29-28) — which itself got walloped by 3A Green Mountain. So, yeah, this could get wild.
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