The Avalanche has played 10 games and are on pace for 114 points this season.
This franchise has surpassed 112 points twice since moving to Colorado, and both years (2001 and 2022) ended with a Stanley Cup celebration.
The Avalanche has also lost three of the past four games by a combined 15-0 margin, including a 7-0 spanking Saturday night by one of its chief Cup-contending rivals, the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights.
Colorado is off to a great start and can be one of the best teams in the NHL, but is also officially in a weird funk with some work to do. Both things can be true.
With that in mind, here are eight observations with the Avs at the 10-game mark. Given the dueling narratives of where the club is at right now, we’re going to cycle back and forth between positive developments and issues that could certainly be better for the club.
Thumbs up – The penalty killing has been excellent. Colorado is third in the NHL at 92.5 percent, killing off 37 of 40 power plays for the opposing team. Beyond that, Logan O’Connor has scored three shorthanded goals.
That means the Avs have broken even while shorthanded this season. That won’t last, but if the PK remains among the best the league, that’s a massive development.
Everyone knows Colorado has the offensive firepower to compete with anyone. Just being above average on the PK would be a success. Being great all year will give this club a chance to compete for the Presidents’ Trophy once the offense gets rolling.
Thumbs down – Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. When Colorado takes care of the puck, it looks like a potential juggernaut. When the Avs do not, things go sideways.
This is a team that wants to possess the puck. The Avs have world-class players who can keep it in situations that most NHL players cannot. They have a coach who gives his skilled players the creative freedom to do so. Not every turnover is technically a bad one – teams give the puck up, often willingly, dozens of times per game.
But the Avs have had some really bad ones in the past four games. The kind that lead to Grade-A scoring chances for the opposing team and leave the goaltender hung out to dry. It was a problem in Pittsburgh. It made the Avs non-competitive in the final half of the game in Vegas.
The silver lining is that’s not a talent problem or a system problem. It can be fixed.
Thumbs up – All of the underlying numbers at 5-on-5 are very good. This should be one of the best teams at even strength, and everything but the actual goals says it is.
Colorado is top three in the NHL in percentage of shot attempts, shots on goal, expected goals, scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. The Avs are 26th in actual goals percentage at 5-on-5, having been outscored 22-16.
They didn’t get enough quality chances against Vegas, but they are getting enough on a per-game basis. Expected goals and scoring chances don’t always turn into actual goals, but for a team with the offensive talent Colorado has, it should.
Thumbs down – Alexandar Georgiev got off to a scorching-hot start, but he’s now cooled off to the point where goaltending ends up on the potential issues list. It’s a small sample size, and he’s got the track record, both here and with New York, to believe he’ll get it right soon.
Georgiev has saved 0.9 goals above expected in nine games in all situations, per Money Puck. That is 21st out of 44 goals who have played in at least five games. He looked like a Vezina Trophy contender for four games, but is league average through nine. The Avs don’t need a Vezina-quality season, but he can be better. It’d be a smart bet that he will be.
Thumbs up – Mikko Rantanen has six goals, 14 points and has looked awesome most nights. The Avs didn’t have a lot of dangerous looks Saturday against Adin Hill, but two of his best saves were on Rantanen.
Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar drive the bus and are two of the best players in the world, but no other team has a “third-best” guy like Rantanen. ESPN ranked him as the seventh-best player in the league before the season. He’s not an underrated player anymore. He’s a superstar.
Thumbs down – The power play can definitely be better. It’s like the two special teams did a “Freaky Friday” switch. The PK is elite and the PP is firmly in the middle of the pack. Toss in the two shorthanded goals allowed in Las Vegas and a plus-five goal differential with the man advantage is tied for 18th.
The Avs are 11th in shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-4, and they’re 18th in high-danger chances/60. They have world-class shooters, so they don’t always need volume to find success, but a little more of one or the other (or both) would help.
Thumbs up – The “glue guys” up front have played very well. O’Connor leads the NHL in Corsi for percentage (shot attempts) and scoring chance percentage, while Andrew Cogliano and Fredrik Olofsson are also in the top six in both categories. Ross Colton and Miles Wood got off to a bit of a slow start, but both have come on strong as well.
Thumbs down – It’s been a bit of a mixed bag for the offensive-minded additions. Ryan Johansen immediately became the team’s most trusted faceoff guy and has fit in well on PP1, but has only one even-strength point. Jonathan Drouin has solid underlying numbers but can’t buy a goal. Tomas Tatar has the least good possession stats up front, but has been relatively productive. It’s going to be a work in progress for all three, and it’s far more important where they’re at in February than November.
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