Denver made an aggressive move Friday night to get back into the third round and draft Iowa cornerback Riley Moss at No. 83 overall.
The Broncos were sitting outside of Day 2 altogether after trading up for Oklahoma receiver Marvin Mims at No. 63 and taking Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders at No. 67. Instead of waiting, though, they moved up 25 spots from No. 108 to land Moss.
In order to do so, they gave up No. 108 and also the lower of their pair of 2024 third-round picks (either their own or New Orleans’). Head coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton said Friday night it was an easy call to make because the Broncos thought that highly of Moss. But just how steep was the cost?
“The chart numbers, relative to the trade, were dead on,” Payton said. “It’s hard for anyone (on the outside) to keep track of something like that. The team you’re talking with is looking at and communicating off the same chart.
“Now, early in the draft this year, there’s a few that were like ‘Whoa.’ We see those because we have all the data (in the draft room) that says who won the deal. When you’re like an eighth of an inch with these bars, you’re right where you should be. I’d say 90 percent of the time, that trade, that round, for that pick next year was that same value. Now it’s our job to have won a bunch of games and make sure it’s deeper into the third round, as opposed to earlier in the third round.”
Different teams value draft picks differently. Then, figuring out how to value future-year pick adds another layer of variance, since you can only project where the lower of Denver and New Orleans’ 2024 third-rounders will land.
The bottom line is, as Payton said, there’s no way from the outside to say exactly what a team’s chart says.
So, instead, here’s how three publicly available methods of valuing picks come out on the Broncos’ decision.
Rich Hill Chart
Value of pick 83: 52 points
Value of pick 108: 31 points
Difference: 21 points, which is the value of the No. 124 pick this. So, essentially they gave up next year’s third for value equivalent to a mid-fourth this year. That one-round discount is right on the sort of old-school standard for dealing future year picks that Payton made mention of on Friday night.
Jimmy Johnson Chart
Value of pick 83: 175 points
Value of pick 108: 78 points
Difference: 97 points, the value of the No. 100 pick this year. That looks pretty even. Denver gave up a 2024 third-rounder and got value equivalent to a back-end third rounder in return.
Fitzgerald-Spielberger Chart
Value of pick 83: 761 points
Value of pick 108: 627 points
Difference: 134 points, the 2023 value of less than the final pick in the draft.
By this more analytically oriented chart, developed by OverTheCap founder Jason Fitzgerald and Pro Football Focus analyst Brad Spielberger, the Broncos overpaid substantially by including the 2024 third-round pick. Basically, they’re saying that the difference between No. 83 and No. 108 is worth less than the final pick in the draft, but the Broncos gave up a future third-rounder.
Their method of valuing picks has a much shallower curve in the mid-rounds.
At the end of the day, value is in the eye of the beholder. The Broncos made an aggressive move and got a player they like and the Seahawks picked up a valuable pick for next year.
Who won the trade? Math generally says the Seahawks. Payton and Paton won’t care if Moss turns out to be a good player.
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