Broncos (6-5) at Texans (6-5)

When: 11 a.m. MT, Sunday

Where: NRG Stadium

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS

Broncos-Texans series: Broncos are 6-3 in nine regular-season games dating back to 2004; Denver won 16-9 in the last meeting, on Sept. 18, 2022, at home, and has won two in a row against the Texans.

In the spotlight

“Let Russ Cook” might have a different meaning under head coach Sean Payton, and that might be a good thing.

Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is not throwing for 300-plus yards every other week or showcasing his accuracy on deep balls. But he has a 68.3% completion percentage, his highest since 2020, and the league’s best touchdown-to-interception ratio at 5/1.

Payton said in the offseason that the Broncos would be a run-heavy offense. Wilson has adapted to that philosophy, and the numbers speak to that. This season, 40.3% of Wilson’s pass attempts have been for at least nine yards, while 21.9% have been behind the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Focus.

He is only averaging 199.9 passing yards per game — the lowest since his rookie season.

Wilson, who is tied for 30th in intended air yards per pass attempt (6.7), looks like he is playing conservatively, settling for check-downs to running back Samaje Perine and rarely taking shots down the field.

Denver’s offense isn’t pretty to watch. But the Broncos’ approach has helped them win five in a row without taking away what has made Wilson one of the best quarterbacks in the league during his career. He is still getting out of the pocket to extend plays. In Week 12’s win over the Browns, Wilson maneuvered to the right before throwing an 8-yard touchdown pass to tight end Adam Trautman in the fourth quarter.

“Like a lot of our scores with (Wilson) improvising and scrambling around, it’s hard to plan that, but I think it’s something that we’ve been good at all year,” offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi said.

Wilson continues to be that go-to guy in late-game situations, as he has four fourth-quarter comebacks and two in the last three games. In the win over the Minnesota Vikings, Wilson threw five passes to Perine for 47 yards before finding wide receiver Courtland Sutton in the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown.

Under Denver’s run-centric offense, Wilson has had to use his legs more. He rushed for 34 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts against the Browns — his most carries in a game since 2012.

“There have been weeks where he’s had 30 yards or whatnot, and I wouldn’t have guessed whether he would or he wouldn’t have,” Payton said. “This was a week that I would’ve guessed he was going to have good rushing yards because there were a number of good examples of zone reads.”

The Texans will present an interesting challenge. Houston’s defense has been good against the run, allowing 95.1 rushing yards a game. However, the Texans are 27th in passing yards allowed (252.5). It’s wise for the Broncos to stay patient and continue doing what’s worked well for them. But the Texans might force the Broncos to rely more on their passing game.

“(The Texans) play hard, and it’s a scheme that’s not complex on first and second down, but it doesn’t make it easy to go against,” Lombardi said. “(They’re) a team that generally doesn’t beat themselves and makes you work to get drives and score points.”

Who has the edge?

When Broncos run

Samaje Perine has made a strong impact in the passing game. In the win over the Browns, he showed that he deserves more carries. Perine ran for 55 yards and a touchdown on seven carries — the most rushing attempts since Week 1, when he had eight. Texans rookie Will Anderson Jr. has the best run-stop win state among edge rushers, according to ESPN Analytics. Edge: Texans

When Broncos pass

Receiver Courtland Sutton has 180 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the last three games. Sutton recorded a touchdown catch in five straight games until the streak ended against the Browns. Texans second-year cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has recorded an interception in back-to-back games. Edge: Broncos

When Texans run

The Texans are 30th in yards per carry (3.7). Houston has averaged 110.6 rushing yards in the last five games. Denver did a better job at containing the run against Cleveland compared to the previous two games, as it allowed 107 yards on the ground in the win. Still, the season-long stats say Denver has the worst rush defense in the league. Edge: Broncos 

When Texans pass

As a rookie, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has taken the league by storm. He is second in passing yards (3,266) and sixth in passer rating (100.8). Denver cornerback Fabian Moreau has allowed a 67.1 passer rating on 28 targets since being inserted into the starting lineup. During the Broncos’ current turnover binge over the last four games, the secondary has accounted for five of the 15 takeaways via interceptions. Edge: Texans

Special teams

The Broncos are first in yards per kick and punt return, while kicker Wil Lutz, the AFC Special Teams Player of the Month for November, has a 92.3% field goal percentage. Punter Riley Dixon is 27th in the league in yards per punt (45.4) with 25% of his attempts landing inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. The Texans and Broncos are the only teams in the NFL with a kick return for a touchdown this season. Edge: Broncos

Coaching

The Broncos are led by Sean Payton, a veteran coach with a Super Bowl victory to his name. In Houston, DeMeco Ryans is a first-year head coach who’s trying to turn around a franchise he used to play for. Both coaches have different paths but managed to get their teams above .500 and playing meaningful football in December. Edge: Even 

Tale of the tape

By the numbers

11: Field goals made by kicker Wil Lutz in November

3.8: Yards per carry for running back Javonte Williams

2: Sacks allowed by Broncos left tackle Garett Bolles, according to Pro Football Focus

10: Touchdown passes thrown by C.J. Stroud in November

Bet on it

Line: Texans -3.5

The Broncos have no plans to stop the momentum they have created for themselves. Stroud will have a solid game, but Denver will ultimately prevail in the end.

Prop bet: Over/under 46.5

Take the over. With playoff implications at hand, this is going to be a close game, with both teams putting points on the board.

Post predictions

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 28, Texans 24

The longer Denver’s winning streak goes, the more it becomes natural to figure it’s got to end at some point. But they’ve had some magic in them so far and this is the kind of game they can win… if they can stay patient enough to play the kind of style that has led them to five in a row.

Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 27, Texans 24

Sean Payton called the Texans a dangerous team. So are the Broncos. They have won five straight, and the defense is flying around and making plays. Denver’s win streak will continue, but it might take some late-game magic from Russell Wilson to do so.

Mark Kiszla, columnist: Texans 23, Broncos 20

Know what strikes me as odd? Broncos coach Sean Payton calls plays as if Russell Wilson is a rookie quarterback, while the Texans aren’t hesitant to turn loose 22-year-old C.J. Stroud. Can the Denver defense take advantage of Stroud’s pedal-to-the-metal tendencies and force two interceptions from him? If the answer is yes, the Broncos win. If not? Nope.

Sean Keeler, columnist:  Broncos 25, Texans 24

Logic says The Takeaway Train is about to burst like the real estate bubble 15 years ago. But when have these Broncos obeyed the laws of logic? Or precedent? Or sanity? Yeah, the Texans don’t turn the ball over. Yeah, Houston’s a tough out at home. So’s Buffalo.

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