As Broncos coach Sean Payton made the Super Bowl radio row rounds in Las Vegas last month, he entertained a lighthearted question about the game’s foremost position.
Who’s the NFL quarterback who gets the most unfair hate?
Payton did not answer Russell Wilson, his polarizing 15-game starter in 2023, who by then had played his final game for Denver.
Instead, he gave USA TODAY a name that might have been high on the list at one point but played his way off it this fall.
“I’m sure that frickin’ Baker (Mayfield) was one of them but then all of a sudden the script flips and then all of us are like, ‘We love Baker,’” Payton said.
“Like, I’m looking for Baker. Where’s he at? He’s a free agent.”
Indeed, Mayfield put together a resurgent season in Tampa, leading the Buccaneers to a playoff berth while throwing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on a career-high 64.3% completions.
The 2018 No. 1 overall pick did it while making $4 million, earning almost $3 million more in incentives and counting $1.7 million against Tampa Bay’s salary cap.
Unless he signs an extension with the Bucs by Monday afternoon, he’ll be easy to find for Payton or any other NFL team that wishes to talk with him. The NFL’s legal tampering period — and, thus, free agency — begins at 2 p.m. Monday, and then the 2024 league year officially begins 2 p.m. Wednesday.
As the Broncos arrive at this juncture long on needs and relatively short on salary cap space, they could literally look for Baker or they could look for the 2024 version of Baker.
One thing is a near certainty: Denver will be working the quarterback market in free agency just as it is evaluating the 2024 draft class.
“It’s the most important position in sports,” general manager George Paton said last month at the NFL combine. “So it’s important, whether it’s from within — that’s why this has taken a long time. It’s not just going to happen overnight. Our decision is very important.”
In reality, it’s not just one choice. It began with informing Wilson of his release. It also likely includes bringing Jarrett Stidham back, though it remains to be seen whether Denver will like the $7 million cap number he currently carries. Then perhaps a draft pick.
But also likely a free agent addition.
The question is more about whether Denver will try to play in the quarterback middle market — think Mayfield or Kirk Cousins — or if they’ll troll the less expensive options looking for somebody in whom they see upside.
The former might be less likely, but it’s not impossible. Consider a recent Spotrac contract projection for Mayfield that checked in at four years and $120 million ($53 million guaranteed at signing). It came with a 2024 cap hit of $6.25 million and a 2025 number of $11.75 million. The Broncos could make that work even with other needs and Wilson’s dead money.
Or they can try to find somebody to do essentially what Mayfield did this past year.
A handful of options:
• Sam Darnold: The No. 3 overall pick from 2018 spent 2023 as the No. 2 in San Francisco after early-career struggles with the New York Jets and Carolina. He has 58 career starts.
• Gardner Minshew: Expected to be the backup in Indianapolis but started 13 games after rookie Anthony Richardson’s injury and went 7-6 while throwing for 3,304 yards, 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions
• Ryan Tannehill: The 35-year-old has started 151 games in his career but has dealt with ankle injuries and subpar performance recently and lost his starting job in Tennessee to rookie Will Levis last fall.
• Jacoby Brissett: Has 39 career starts for five teams and spent 2023 as Sam Howell’s backup in Washington. Started 11 games in Cleveland in 2022 and threw for 2,608 yards (64% completions) and 12 touchdowns against six picks.
• Carson Wentz: The No. 2 overall pick in 2016, Wentz spent 2023 backing up Matthew Stafford with the Los Angeles Rams. He has 93 career starts but just eight over the past two years.
Payton has made it work with reclamation projects before. Jameis Winston (also a free agent this spring) went 5-2 in 2021 and threw 14 touchdowns against three interceptions. Taysom Hill went 3-1 in 2020. Teddy Bridgewater? 5-0 in 2019.
If there’s a guy on the market Payton thinks he can win with, he’ll move quickly, just like last year when he said it was “quietly” a priority to land Stidham. The Broncos will have opportunity on their side as a key part of the recruiting pitch, too.
If they don’t like the price points of the free agents, they can try to swing a trade, too.
Here’s a primer on the rest of what Denver will try to accomplish in a free agency that Paton said will be “strategic” rather than the spending bonanza of a year ago.
How much cap space does Denver have?
It depends on how the team splits up Wilson’s dead money.
The Broncos have to officially release Wilson by March 17. That means they can take the first couple of days of free agency and see how it goes. If they hit on a bunch of their preferred targets, perhaps that leads them to pick up an option in Wilson’s contract and take $35.4 million (his original 2024 cap number) this year and $49.6 million next year.
If Denver finds itself missing on a couple of top options and thus spending less money in free agency, then it can turn down the option, eat $53 million of the hit this year and have $32 million left to absorb in 2025.
The Broncos, after a flurry of Friday moves and the trade of receiver Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland on Saturday have about $31.3 million in cap space and can create more by moving money around elsewhere on the roster or making more cuts or trades. It would be wise, however, to only make those moves with intent rather than kicking the can down the road just to scratch the spending itch this spring.
Who are the Broncos’ prospective free agents?
Offensive linemen Lloyd Cushenberry and Cam Fleming; inside linebackers Josey Jewell, Justin Strnad and Ben Niemann; cornerbacks Fabian Moreau and K’Waun Williams; defensive linemen Mike Purcell and Jonathan Harris; fullback Mike Burton; running back Dwayne Washington; receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey, tight end Adam Trautman and kicker Wil Lutz.
What are the positions of need?
Let’s group them, then round it up.
Must: Quarterback, safety, tight end, kicker
Need: Defensive line, edge, corner, inside linebacker
If the opportunity arises: Receiver, running back, center
The first group is self-explanatory. Jettisoning Wilson and safety Justin Simmons creates immediate, urgent need. The Broncos aren’t going into the summer with Stidham and Ben DiNucci as their only quarterbacks.
The team would do well to get safety P.J. Locke back as a free agent — they’re hopeful to, sources have indicated — but at that point it would be wise to add a veteran, draft pick or both to a group that also includes Caden Sterns, JL Skinner and a rehabbing Delarrin Turner-Yell.
The NFL saw 25 tight ends catch more passes than Denver’s entire group combined and it’s a position Payton values. Trautman is a free agent and Chris Manhertz was released Friday. It will be an action spot this offseason.
The expectation is Lutz will get an extension worked out — the sides have had talks in recent weeks, a source said — but that does have to happen.
The defensive line and edge groups aren’t far behind in terms of need and it’s a deep defensive tackle group in free agency. Perhaps a veteran lingers on the market and is available at a reasonable price.
Moreau became Denver’s second starter at corner, but the Broncos could try to fill that spot internally with either second-year man Riley Moss or a bounce-back season from Damarri Mathis.
If the Broncos do, indeed, keep Drew Sanders on the edge, then their only experienced ILBs are Alex Singleton and Jonas Griffith, who has missed the past 1.5 seasons due to injuries. They could look to upgrade in athleticism over Jewell.
Losing Cushenberry would hurt after he played his best football in the middle of Denver’s offensive line in 2023. The Broncos could survey the free agency options, but they also have spoken highly, repeatedly, about a pair of young reserves in Luke Wattenberg and Alex Forsyth.
Who are the biggest names on the market?
Like most years, there are many. Cousins and Mayfield are the most notable quarterbacks. One year after several running backs got the franchise tag, it’s a star-studded group hitting free agency. That list includes Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard and Colorado native Austin Ekeler.
There are also big names available at safety, including Simmons, Jamal Adams and more. The inside linebacker group includes Patrick Queen, Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David and other long-time staples. On the edge, Danielle Hunter could go past $20 million per year. On the interior defensive line, Christian Wilkins leads a deep group full of veterans.
Who didn’t hit the market?
Eight players got franchise tagged in recent days — Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson subsequently signed an extension — and New England’s Kyle Duggar received the transition tag, giving the Patriots the right to match any offer.
The seven other franchise tags: edges Josh Allen (Jacksonville) and Brian Burns (Carolina), receivers Tee Higgins (Cincinnati) and Michael Pittman (Indianapolis), defensive backs L’Jarius Sneed (Kansas City) and Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay) and defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (Baltimore).
What to expect from the Broncos
A quarterback and probably more spending than might have been imagined back in January, when Paton predicted Denver would sit out the first wave of free agency.
That doesn’t mean they’re going to come close to matching last year’s haul — six players and $128 million in guaranteed money on the first day alone — but they’ve got holes to fill, only six picks in April’s draft and the maneuverability to create cap space.
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