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Broncos scouting report: How Denver matches up against Seahawks and predictions

Broncos (0-0) at Seahawks (0-0)

When: 6:15 p.m. MT, Monday.

Where: Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash.

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/ESPN/ABC

Broncos-Seahawks series: Broncos are 35-19 in 54 regular-season games dating back to 1977; the Broncos won 27-24 in the last meeting, on Sept. 9, 2018, in Denver, and lost in overtime in the previous meeting in Seattle (26-20 in 2014). The Seahawks also trounced the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII, 43-8.


Key matchup

Broncos secondary vs Seahawks wideouts

If Seattle has any chance of hanging with the Broncos despite being out-matched at most positions, it lies with the Seahawks’ two dynamic Pro Bowl wideouts, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.

Lockett’s posted three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, including a career high of 1,175 on 73 catches with eight touchdowns last season. Metcalf, meanwhile, had 967 yards on 75 catches and 12 touchdowns in ’21, after posting a career-high 1,303 yards in ’20.

Broncos safety Justin Simmons said the Seahawks’ duo “puts a lot of pressure on the defense.”

“D.K. and Lockett, they’re the best at running those two-man routes, maybe outside or on par with (Vikings wideouts Adam) Thielen and Justin Jefferson,” Simmons said. “They do such a good job of finding ways to get open. We’ve seen that for so many years and everyone knows going in there you have to eliminate the big plays with D.K. and Lockett.”

Simmons pointed out that quarterback Geno Smith is going to “find a way to squeeze a shot in” to his top playmakers, regardless of the scheme the Broncos present.

In man coverage, Ronald Darby and Pat Surtain II will have the primary responsibilities of covering Lockett and Metcalf, with help from nickel back K’Waun Williams. Surtain (6-foot-2, 202 pounds) is likely the best one-on-one option for the sizable Metcalf (6-4, 235), while the Broncos will also present lots of zone looks that require coverage from Simmons on the back end.

“That’s going to be a challenge for us in the secondary,” Simmons said. “It’s going to take a lot of communication. I talk about that week-in and week-out, and it’s going to be on full display on Monday night in order for us to execute.”


Who has the edge?

Quarterback

Wilson is a nine-time Pro Bowler who led the Seahawks to two Super Bowl appearances, even if 2021 was a disappointment. He takes on his former backup, journeyman vet Geno Smith, who beat out ex-Bronco Drew Lock for Seattle’s starting quarterback job. Edge: Broncos

Running back

After Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon each topped 900 yards last year — the first running back duo in 10 years to accomplish the feat — Williams will be the featured back in ’22. The Seahawks have Rashaad Penny, who had a career- high 749 yards in ’21. Edge: Broncos

Receiver/tight end

Even with Tim Patrick out with an ACL injury and Greg Dulcich on IR with a hamstring injury, Wilson has plenty of weapons in Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam. Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf are dangerous for Seattle. Edge: Even

Offensive line

Poor protection was one of Wilson’s main complaints about playing in Seattle, so he hopes his line featuring Garett Bolles, Dalton Risner, Lloyd Cushenberry, Quinn Meinerz and Billy Turner is a step up. The Seahawks are led by right tackle Abraham Lucas. Edge: Broncos

Defensive line

Shelby Harris will have something to prove in his first game with Seattle after coming over in the Wilson trade. The Broncos “Dark Side” front also wants to have a statement game behind D.J. Jones, Dre’Mont Jones, DeShawn Williams and Mike Purcell. Edge: Broncos

Linebacker

The Broncos got inside backer Jonas Griffith back from a preseason elbow injury, but Josey Jewell is out with a calf injury. Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb should be forces on the edges. Inside backer Jordyn Brooks paced Seattle with 183 tackles last year. Edge: Broncos

Secondary

Nickel back K’Waun Williams gets his first Broncos start, while Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson provide veteran presences at safety. Cornerback Pat Surtain II looks like Denver’s best defensive player. Safety Jamal Adams is Seattle’s secondary anchor. Edge: Broncos

Special teams

Seattle has kicker Jason Myers and punter Michael Dickson, both of whom are inferior to the Broncos’ specialists. Brandon McManus (82.7 career field goal percentage) is one of the league’s best kickers, and Corliss Waitman has a big leg at punter. Edge: Broncos


Tale of the tape

CategoryBroncosSeahawks
Total offense330.5 (19th)323.9 (20th)
Rush offense119.1 (13th)122 (11th)
Pass offense211.4 (19th)201.9 (23rd)
Points per game19.7 (T-23rd)23.2 (16th)
Total defense326.1 (8th)379.1 (28th)
Run defense111.3 (15th)113.6 (17th)
Pass defense214.8 (8th)265.5 (31st)
Points allowed18.9 (3rd)21.5 (T-11th)

* From the 2021 season


By the numbers

29 — Russell Wilson’s primetime wins; the quarterback holds a 29-11-1 mark in such games.

9 — New veteran players on Denver’s roster this year, six of whom are starters — Wilson, defensive lineman D.J. Jones, outside linebacker Randy Gregory, right tackle Billy Turner, punter Corliss Waitman and nickel back K’Waun Williams.

27,398 — The total amount of miles the Broncos will travel during the 2022 regular season, the second-most in the league behind the Seahawks (29,398). Denver will go through 32 time zones over the 17-game schedule.

3 — The number of defensive backs in the NFL last year who had at least 55 tackles, 14 passes defensed and four interceptions. Then-rookie Pat Surtain was one of them, along with veterans Jalen Ramsey of the Rams and J.C. Jackson of the Patriots (now with the Chargers).

28 — That’s how many games it’s been since the Broncos had a 100-yard rusher and 100-yard receiver on the same day. The last time that happened was in Week 6 in 2020, when running back Phillip Lindsay and receiver Tim Patrick both racked up 101 yards in a road win in New England.


Betting/fantasy

Line: Broncos -6.5

The visitors are almost a touchdown favorite in what is sure to be chaotic environment, with around 72,000 fans expressing their displeasure with Wilson’s exit at a sold-out Lumen Field. But if the Broncos can get off to a fast start, Russ & Co. should be able to cover against the suspect Seattle D.

Prop bet: Javonte Williams rushing total 56.5 yards (-155)

Take the over. Look for Hackett and offensive coordinator Justin Outten to set the tone early and often with Williams, who is likely to break a handful of tackles in the game and pop off some big runs. Expect at least 75 yards out of the second-year tailback.


Post predictions

Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 21, Seahawks 20

My dream homecoming scenario: Russell Wilson grins and bears the booing, then throws two TD passes to remind the “12’s” what they’ll miss. Drew Lock enters game in second half and delivers a pick-6 to Pat Surtain that clinches W for Denver. Pete Carroll and DangeRuss hug it out after game. Shortly after midnight, a gentle, cleansing rain begins to fall on Seattle.

Kyle Newman, beat writer: Broncos 31, Seahawks 14

The 12th Man is silenced by the second half as the Broncos get off to a sizable early lead behind a couple of Russell Wilson TD passes and a Javonte Williams rushing score. The Denver D proves it can be a pillar again in 2022, stifling Geno Smith & Co. until garbage time.

Ryan O’Halloran, beat writer: Broncos 28, Seahawks 17

Seattle coach Pete Carroll has basically encouraged Seahawks fans to boo quarterback Russell Wilson despite a decade of mostly excellent play. Well, by late Monday night, the “12’s” will be booing Carroll after Wilson makes his Broncos debut with three touchdown passes. Please take a victory lap of the stadium after the game, Russ.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20

“Russ Comes Home” makes for killer TV, but Week 1’s the worst time to play a bad Seahawks team that’s basically quiet-quitting in order to grab a franchise QB in next spring’s draft. The 12th Man keeps it closer than it oughta be.

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