Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7)
When: 6:15 p.m. MT, Sunday
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/KMGH-7, NFL Network
Broncos-Patriots series: The Broncos are 27-22 in 49 regular-season games dating back to 1960; Denver won 18-12 in the last meeting, on Oct. 18, 2020, in New England, but has lost two of the last three matchups to the Patriots.
In the spotlight
Rookie Riley Moss took advantage of the moment.
As a gunner for Denver’s punting unit against the Lions, Moss didn’t allow Kalif Raymond to gain a single yard, as the Broncos rookie cornerback bolted down the field before he wrapped up Detroit’s returner by the ankles for a tackle in the first quarter.
For Moss, it’s been a grind to get playing time. The Iowa product missed all of training camp with a core muscle injury. He was inactive for the first two games of the season, and when Moss has played, he’s been limited to special teams work (204 snaps) and minimal appearances on defense (13 snaps).
But he has impressed the team with his attitude to learn and take advantage of any opportunity given to him no matter how big or small.
“Whatever (his) snaps on the field looks like, (Moss) wants to be great at it,” starting safety Justin Simmons said.
Simmons recalled his rookie season in 2016 when he was playing behind safeties T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart. Simmons said he had his dime and nickel packages, but since he wasn’t a Day One starter, he had to prove himself, even if that meant contributing on special teams.
“There’s only so many X’s and O’s in special teams. It’s just going out there and winning your one-on-one matchup,” Simmons said. “I think that speaks a lot, and it’s a testament to those guys that do it on a consistent basis.”
Special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica believes Moss, a third-round selection last spring, has the natural ability to excel in the gunner role because of his quickness. Moss was a track star in high school, and at the NFL Scouting Combine he completed the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds.
“He can make somebody miss at the line of scrimmage,” Kotwica said. “With him and (cornerback) Tremon (Smith), they have helped us be an effective unit, especially the last couple of weeks.”
Moss has been a sponge and soaked in the advice given to him by Simmons, safety P.J. Locke and Smith.
“Riley came in with the right head on his shoulders and he’s willing to learn,” Simmons said. “They’re encouraging him like ‘This is how you get snaps.’ He’s doing a really good job of taking it all in and executing when he has the opportunity to.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
If the Broncos want to win the final three games, they will need better production for the run game. Denver has averaged 3.2 yards per carry in the last two games. Even though the Patriots are one of the worst teams in football, they have been solid at stopping the run. New England has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards in the league (84.9 per game). Edge: Patriots
When Broncos pass
Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson has turned the ball over five times in the last three games. Wide receiver Jerry Jeudy was one of the few bright spots in the loss to Detroit, catching three passes for 74 yards. The Broncos’ pass-protectors will have to do a better job against pressure this week. New England blitzes on 34% of dropbacks. Edge: Even
When Patriots run
The Patriots have yet to have a player record of 100 or more rushing yards in a game this season. Running back Ezekiel Elliott has only two rushing touchdowns on 145 carries. Denver has allowed 137.3 rushing yards per game since the bye week and was gashed by Detroit last weekend to the tune of 185 yards on 28 carries. Edge: Broncos
When Patriots pass
Quarterback Bailey Zappe has thrown for 561 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in three starts. New England’s leading receiver, Demario Douglas, only has 443 yards. Denver defensive end Zach Allen has a career-best 21 quarterback hits in 14 games, but the absence of second-year outside linebacker Nik Bonitto on the edge could negatively affect the Broncos’ ability to generate pressure. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
The Broncos are fifth in punt return yards allowed (6.3) while New England is 18th at 9.5. Denver kicker Wil Lutz has had one field goal attempt in each of the last three games. Marvin Mims Jr. averaged 17.5 yards on two kick return attempts in the loss to the Lions. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
Things haven’t been easy for Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. New England has had three losing seasons in the four years since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay. Now at 3-11 this season, Belichick’s time with the Patriots could be in jeopardy. Still, Broncos coach Sean Payton acknowledged earlier in the week that Belichick has a knack for coming up with game plans that make teams play “left-handed” on offense. Payton and company were embarrassed by the Lions, but they should have something in store for the Patriots. Edge: Broncos
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 299.8 (25th) | 285.3 (28th) |
| Rush offense | 112.7 (14th) | 98.4 (25th) |
| Pass offense | 187.1 (25th) | 186.9 (26th) |
| Points per game | 21.7 (16th) | 13.3 (32nd) |
| Total Defense | 382.4 (T-30th) | 308.3 (8th) |
| Run defense | 146.9 (32nd) | 84.9 (2nd) |
| Pass defense | 235.5 (23rd) | 223.4 (16th) |
| Points allowed | 25.1 (30th) | 21.4 (16th) |
By the numbers
10.4: Yards gained per completion for Wilson.
770: Receiving yards for wide receiver Courtland Sutton.
8: Passes defended for safety Justin Simmons.
5.2: Rushing yards per attempt that the Broncos have allowed this season.
Bet on it
Line: Broncos -6.5
It’s hard to bet against the Broncos in this matchup. The Patriots have been bad, and Denver will be extra motivated to remain in the postseason picture.
Prop bet: Over/under 34.5
It’s safe to take the under in this game. Denver has averaged 20.5 points in the last two games, while New England has averaged the fewest points in the league.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 27, Patriots 17
It may not feel like a comfortable, two-score victory all the way through. But Denver wants to make the playoffs and New England wants a shiny, new quarterback at the top of the 2024 draft. Why deliver coal to the stocking for both when instead everybody can wake up happy on Christmas morning?
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 20, Patriots 10
If Denver’s defense wants to get the sour taste out of its mouth after allowing 42 points to the Lions, Christmas Eve would be the perfect time to do so. The Patriots rank near the bottom in every offensive category. Broncos Country will be gifted with a win, but there’s still more work to do to make the playoffs a reality.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 19, Patriots 9:
Twas the night before Christmas, and all through Empower / The coaches on both sides felt decidedly dour / Big Russ looked painful, but Zappe looked worse / And Jeudy’s three drops made Santa’s brain hurt / But I heard him exclaim, as he headed toward Berkeley / “Merry Christmas to all … except for The Hoodie!”
Mark Kiszla, columnist: Broncos 3, Patriots 2
Bah, humbug! Football on Christmas Eve is an unholy intrusion by the NFL. Sorta like if grumpy Bill Belichick showed up at your holiday party bearing only Cheez-Its and asking where you keep the good bourbon.
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