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Broncos Mailbag: Do recent offensive struggles foretell end of the road for Russell Wilson in Denver?

Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.

Hi Parker! Again, thanks again for all of your insights into the Broncos. With that, I am starting a new club: G.R.O.W. — Get Rid Of Wilson! The offense needs to revolve around the quarterback and Russell Wilson is not looking very good. Yes, he had two drives for touchdowns at the end of the game, but if he had played like that the whole game then all would be OK. He seems to not see open receivers, looks afraid to make any mistakes, and is just going through the motions. If he is let go this offseason, which I do hope, will George Paton be held accountable for this huge mistake, giving up a lot for basically nothing? Again, I have never been a fan of Wilson, but I was rooting for him when we traded for him, but now it is scary to think about him behind center going into the future.

— Del, Lamar

Hey Del, certainly Wilson hasn’t played as well in recent weeks as he did during the Broncos’ five-game winning streak. He’s not the only one, but he’s the most visible one. One thing I will say in your list of concerns: He’s not going through the motions. He’s about as competitive as you’ll find.

At the same time, the numbers recently aren’t great.

During the winning streak, Wilson turned the ball over only one time, completed 71.6% of his passes, threw eight touchdowns and no picks, and ran for 116 yards (3.7 per carry) while playing to a quarterback rating of 109.5.

As the Broncos have lost three of their past four, he’s turned the ball over five times, completed 61.7% of his passes, thrown six touchdowns and four interceptions, run for 75 yards (2.8 per carry) and two touchdowns, and played to an 84.5 quarterback rating.

I don’t know what Wilson’s future is in Denver at this point — we’ve been through some of the options and factors and certainly will be covering more in the coming days and weeks — but it hasn’t been the finishing kick they were hoping for offensively, that’s for sure.

Hello and merry Christmas! I have a question about our rookies. If we look at the 2023 class, many of them had promise (including the undrafted ones), but for the most part and for various reasons we barely saw them. Is this how Sean Payton usually works with rookies — waiting a year before really putting them in and trusting them? With not much draft capital and a tight cap space, might they be the major reinforcements of 2024 and be part of the vision Payton says he has for next year? Riley Moss and Drew Sanders play two positions of need for next year for example.

P.S.: If I can add, do you know how KJ Hamler is doing?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Yoann, thanks for the questions! The short answer is yes. Payton in New Orleans typically had older, more experienced teams. Obviously there are exceptions when it comes to rookie production, but if you look at the roster composition, his teams have usually skewed older. It’s part of the reason he and the Broncos loaded up in free agency after he got hired.

Payton believes in his staff’s ability to develop players, and he talks often about the “vision” for a guy not just in Year 1 but beyond. For example, when they drafted Drew Sanders, Payton said he thinks Sanders prototypes to the “Mike” inside linebacker position, basically the quarterback of the defense. This year, he’s got on the field mostly on the edge and as a pass-rusher, and Payton last week acknowledged that now he could see Sanders inside or outside long-term.

It’s interesting because Payton speaks highly of several of Denver’s rookies — Sanders, corner Riley Moss, receiver Marvin Mims Jr., running back Jaleel McLaughlin, even some others like center Alex Forsyth — but the playing time doesn’t really match. In some cases, the reasoning is obvious. In others, less so. So it’ll be interesting to watch how that group develops into next season and also if any of the next crop of rookies can make an immediate impact.

As for Hamler, I haven’t talked to him, but he’s currently on Indianapolis’ practice squad as that team pushes for a playoff spot. Good on him for getting back from the heart issue that cropped up in training camp and landing back with an NFL team.

Parker, it’s frustrating how many opportunities we had early against the Patriots and yet we managed only seven points in the first half. Losing Courtland Sutton was big but how did no one else step up until the fourth quarter? That was a winnable game. Now instead of sitting at 8-7 and being a game out of first place in the AFC West, we need to win out and pray for everything to shake out for a shot at that final wild-card spot.

How’s Courtland Sutton doing? If he’s not back next week, I don’t think we have a shot.

— Will, Aurora

Now with only a 5% chance of making the playoffs, what’s left for the Broncos to play for this season after this devastating loss? Why such a slow start against the Patriots?

— Ed Helinski, Auburn, N.Y.

Combining Will and Ed’s questions and concerns here since they fall in the same vein.

That loss to New England was bad. Really bad. Amazingly, the further we get past it, the worse it looks, too. Part of that is obviously because of the Patriots’ 3-11 record entering the game and because the Broncos just had to beat three teams with a combined 14-28 record to likely secure a playoff spot. But there are two things that make it even worse sitting here the week after.

1) Denver is now 4-4 at home this year. Not good enough. To make matters worse, the Broncos have led seven of those eight games at halftime, including Sunday night. The teams that came back to beat them: Las Vegas, Washington, the New York Jets and the Patriots. Those teams were quarterbacked by Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe. Ouch.

2) This appears to be the most vulnerable Kansas City team since Patrick Mahomes got drafted, and the Broncos have done absolutely nothing with it. The Chiefs lost again Monday. The Broncos would be a game back in the division and looking at the possibility of just needing one KC loss over the last two weeks paired with two wins of their own for a West division crown. Instead they need two Chiefs losses and two wins.

Mahomes is 28 years old. Assuming good health, he can go another decade-plus if he wants to. There aren’t going to be many lean years in that stretch. This was a chance to make it stick for a year regardless of whether Denver’s real level is mediocre or somewhere in that range. So far it’s been a swing and a miss.

At this point, then, to Ed’s question, you’re trying to beat two more division opponents. That’d put you at 9-8 on the year and 4-2 against the West. If almost literally everything breaks right the next two weeks, maybe you sneak into the postseason. Otherwise you set about trying to build off it into 2024.

As for Sutton, no real update from Payton on Tuesday. The protocol is pretty straightforward, so Sutton’s progress will be measured through the week on whether he can get back into meetings, then into conditioning work, then on to the practice field as the week progresses.

Good morning from the Sooner state! We’re as frustrated with the Broncos down here as you are in the high country. Quick question: With the dearth of productivity from the tight end corps, do you wonder if Sean Payton misses Albert Okwuegbunam yet?

— Randy Swanson, Yukon, Okla.

Hey Randy, thanks for writing in! Good question. Maybe, but really probably not. If you want to put the hindsight glasses on and say that the staff should have assumed they’d be without Greg Dulcich for most of the season, then maybe. But Dulcich, for all the injury issues as a rookie, had a healthy offseason and training camp.

Not only that, but the Broncos basically swapped out Okwuegbunam for Lucas Krull. That big third preseason game that some folks thought nailed down Albert O’s roster spot, well, it felt an awful lot like a trade showcase. He had seven catches for 109 and a TD. Krull for New Orleans in Week 3 of the preseason: Seven for 106.

So far this season: Okwuegbunam’s played in four games and hasn’t caught a pass for Philadelphia. Krull’s played in five games and has six catches for 81 yards and a touchdown. Different teams, different situations, etc. But at the end of the day I’m not sure the preseason decision-making at tight end is where Denver ran into trouble this year.

Winning in the NFL isn’t that difficult, half the teams win every weekend.

— Dave, Golden

My kind of math, Dave. Except wait, with an odd number of games on the season, that means you either go 9-8 or 8-9. Sounds kind of familiar, now that you mention it.

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