As head coach Sean Payton graduated from the snorkel mask to the scuba tank and worked through a deep dive on the Broncos roster in recent weeks, the question that popped up most frequently around the league was whether he and general manager George Paton might consider dealing from their wide receiver group.
The Broncos, after all, are heavy salary cap-wise at receiver and light on draft capital.
Throw in an underwhelming free agent crop of pass-catchers and it’s no surprise that Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton have been the subject of trade calls from teams around the NFL. The landscape continually changes. Just this week, two notable receivers have been dealt, KJ Hamler suffered a torn pectoral muscle while training on his own that will sideline him 4-6 months and on Friday Denver signed receiver Marquez Callaway to a one-year deal.
The central question remains the same, though: Deal Sutton, Jeudy, both or neither? If the Broncos are serious about sticking to their high asking price on Jeudy, in particular, a trade may ultimately not materialize.
Brandin Cooks, one of the NFL’s most-traded pass catchers, was recently dealt from Houston to Dallas for a fifth-round pick this year and a sixth-rounder in 2024. Cleveland, reported to be a suitor for Jeudy, this week instead traded for New York Jets third-year receiver Elijah Moore. The Jets got a second-round pick (No. 42) in return but only by including a third-rounder (No. 74) along with the receiver.
Cooks is two years older than Sutton and they are different styles of receivers, but Cooks has been the more productive player in recent years.
Moore is a year younger and cheaper than Jeudy — though the latter is quite affordable over the next two seasons — but Jeudy has been the more productive and valuable player. These aren’t apples-to-apples comparisons, but they give at least some context.
The Moore trade is particularly interesting because of the pick swap. Using the Jimmy Johnson draft pick value chart, Moore’s worth is equivalent to the No. 66 overall pick in the draft — right near the top of the third round. Not bad, the Broncos’ brass might think.
That’s not necessarily NFL front office gospel, however. Over the Cap founder Jason Fitzgerald and analyst Brad Spielberger developed a more analytically inclined draft pick valuation chart that features a much shallower value curve. By that model, Moore’s worth in the deal is equivalent to the No. 211 pick in the draft — a sixth-rounder.
So, without a definitive “right” or “wrong,” Moore is worth somewhere between a Day 2 and Day 3 pick on his own.
Other returns are more straightforward. In November, Chicago parted with what ended up being the first pick in the second round (No. 32 overall this year) to acquire Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh. He was taken 34 picks after Jeudy in the 2020 class and they have similar production through three seasons. It only takes one team to value a player in a certain way to get what you want.
Overall, though, extracting that kind of value for a receiver has been relatively rare and is more common during the draft itself. Of 29 trades involving a wide receiver over the past two years, only five have involved a first-round pick. The most recent was DJ Moore going from Carolina to Chicago earlier this month, but that deal wasn’t centered on him. Carolina included him as part of a major haul to move up from No. 9 to No. 1 in the draft.
The other four:
• During last year’s draft, Philadelphia landed A.J. Brown from Tennessee for the No. 18 pick and a third-rounder (No. 101), and Arizona acquired Marquise Brown and a third-round pick (No. 100) from Baltimore for No. 22 overall.
• Two All-Pros were dealt the month before: Green Bay got a first-rounder and second-rounder for Davante Adams from Las Vegas (Adams specifically wanted to go there), and Kansas City rolled up a five-pick haul, including a first-rounder, for Tyreek Hill.
Of those, Brown looks like the closest realistic comparison to Jeudy. Would Denver use him and one of its existing picks to get into the first round? Or turn the dial around and accept a Day 2 pick plus something else? The Giants at last fall’s trade deadline sent Kadarius Toney to Kansas City for a third-rounder and a sixth-rounder.
If that’s the compensation on the table, general manager George Paton and head coach Sean Payton should not be in a rush to trade Jeudy. They’re short on picks now, but Jeudy came on strong late in 2022 and counts only $4.83 million against the cap this year and $12.987 million against the cap next year, assuming his fifth-year option is picked up and no extension materializes.
Plus, there’s no reason outside of injury risk to think Jeudy’s value at the trade deadline this fall would suddenly plummet. Teams asked about him in the lead-up to the 2022 deadline and Paton held the line. That’s a good approach for this spring, too.
The Broncos picked up Bradley Chubb’s fifth-year option ahead of the 2021 season and, even after he struggled with injuries that fall, eventually landed a first-round pick at the 2022 trade deadline from Miami.
Denver doesn’t have to trade Sutton, but doing so this spring would offer cap relief in the form of $6.79 million this year and would take his numbers of $17.325 million in 2024 and $17.825 million in 2025 off the books, according to OTC data.
The Broncos have spent big in free agency this spring, and several of those players see their cap numbers shoot up beginning next year. All-Pro Pat Surtain II becomes eligible for an extension — he’ll likely reset the cornerback market at some point — this time next year. Denver may consider dealing Sutton a chance to add to its draft quiver and create breathing room for the future.
Another trade-related observation: Paton made an interesting point at the Combine when he said of the 2022 draft, “I felt like we got to the later rounds and (the depth) kind of fell off, where maybe in previous years there was a little more.” Currently Denver has no seventh-rounders, but Paton may find himself more interested in acquiring one pick rather than multiple lower selections.
Regardless, even if a potential suitor like Cleveland decided to turn its attention elsewhere, the Broncos haven’t been in a rush to find a trade partner and shouldn’t be. If they’re hellbent on dealing one or both this spring, they’ve got a month to try to maximize value and may even opt to take discussions into draft weekend.
The only reason to pull the trigger before then is if Paton and Payton get exactly what they want.
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