The Broncos have been headlong into their free agency meetings for weeks.
They started their draft meetings in earnest after the Super Bowl.
The NFL’s offseason has only just officially begun, but it’s about to accelerate.
The Scouting Combine begins Feb. 27 in Indianapolis. Free agency arrives two weeks later.
Denver currently has 61 players under contract but dozens of decisions ranging from procedural to potentially program rattling to make in the coming days and weeks.
The Broncos could end up looking remarkably different in 2024 than they did in 2023. They could end up bringing most of a core group back. Either way, head coach Sean Payton used a portion of his car wash-style run of radio interviews in Las Vegas before the Super Bowl to explain how little Year 1 matters for Year 2 from a roster perspective.
“We take our puzzle and flip it upside down and all the pieces get spread out again,” he told Kay Adams. “We look at the salary cap, we look at where we’re at with our own free agents, we look at who’s in the draft, where we pick, how many draft picks we have and we begin this puzzle again. I really believe that. This idea that we’re going to pick up from where we left off that’s all B.S. That’s not the case.”
At this stage of the process, the Broncos don’t have all the pieces to the puzzle. They don’t know the exact size and shape of others.
They do have a sense of the challenges, though. General manager George Paton made two points last month that speak to the difficult task ahead: Denver won’t likely be overly active on the first wave of free agency, but its depth is also lacking due to a recent dearth of draft picks that at present is set to continue this spring.
A lack of picks and a relative lack of cap space — Denver’s $24 million over-the-cap position isn’t as dire as it currently looks, but it’s certainly not ideal — does not mean Payton and Paton head toward spring with a lack of needs.
Just the opposite, in fact.
So, as they lead the meetings that will set the course for the Broncos’ free agency strategy and the team’s approach to April’s draft, here are five positions where Denver’s current roster and impending free agents are set up for action.
Inside linebacker
Denver already made one modest but important move, re-signing Jonas Griffith for 2024 after he was set to become a restricted free agent. Even still, Josey Jewell, Ben Niemann and special teams regular Justin Strnad are all set to be free agents. At this stage, it’s unclear if 2023 third-round pick Drew Sanders’ future is inside or on the edge.
Whether Sanders or somebody else, the Broncos would do well to upgrade the overall athleticism and range at this position. With the limitations in cap space and draft picks, however, it may make the most sense to put the band back together for 2024, find a deal that works with Jewell and pair him again next to Alex Singleton. They have great chemistry and perhaps Griffith returns some to form despite now 26 straight games missed due to injury (foot, then ACL).
You’d like to have young players carry the torch on special teams, but the way the roster is composed it would not be a surprise to see several veterans like Niemann and Strnad back in camp on non-guaranteed deals competing for roster spots.
Center
Lloyd Cushenberry put together his best season in a contract year. Now he’s set himself up well to be one of the highest-paid centers in this year’s free-agent class. The Broncos said they won’t play much near the top of the market in free agency, but they might have to if they want their center back. It’s not the most expensive position out there, but Pro Football Focus estimated an average value of more than $14 million per year for the 2020 third-round pick. Even if that ends up being too rich, can the Broncos find a way to keep him? Payton isn’t afraid to invest heavily in the offensive line, but Denver currently has a top-10 paid right tackle, left tackle and left guard. Right guard Quinn Meinerz is also heading toward a major extension sometime in the next 12 or so months. This one takes some long-range forecasting and has likely spurred lengthy conversations in-house.
In all of the Russell Wilson and Paton/Payton talk last month, one of the general manager’s more interesting under-the-radar comments was saying that Denver believes 2023 seventh-round pick Alex Forsyth is a starting-caliber player after not appearing in a game as a rookie. At one point during the season, Payton made an off-hand remark about how Forsyth was one of the young players in the building earliest every day learning the system even though he was on the scout team. Maybe the Broncos will feel comfortable putting him between two good players in Meinerz and Ben Powers — potentially with a new quarterback, too — rather than paying big for “Cush” or playing the open market.
Safety
P.J. Locke is Denver’s only impeding free agent at the position, but the question marks extend beyond that. Some action is likely with Justin Simmons’ contract given he has one year remaining at a $18.325 million cap number but no guaranteed dollars remaining. Is it an extension? A trade? That move sets the course for this position group. After Simmons, here’s how the room shapes up: Locke is a free agent, Kareem Jackson departed unceremoniously late in the season, Caden Sterns’ rehab from a torn patella tendon is going well but likely keeps him limited through the offseason, sixth-round 2023 rookie JL Skinner wasn’t ready in Year 1 and Delarrin Turner-Yell will miss at least the first chunk of 2024 after a brutal knee injury in Week 17.
So, what to do? Bringing Locke back makes sense given his reliability and his relatively modest cost. Sterns has talent but also an injury history that dates to college. Denver has to treat him as a bonus starter if he finally puts together a healthy campaign rather than banking on him holding down a full-time job.
The big decision, truly, is with Simmons even though he’s not an impending free agent. Third contracts are always tricky, but Simmons is still playing at a high level and would be a centerpiece for new passing game coordinator/DBs coach Jim Leonhard. Simmons, Locke and Sterns is the familiar route for 2024 and it’s definitely an option. It’s likely either that or a major shakeup.
Tight end
Payton sidestepped this notion multiple times during the season, but it became clear that, in a mostly healthy season, Denver didn’t miss anybody offensively more than it missed Greg Dulcich. The Broncos looked like they were going to feature him during training camp and instead he didn’t finish a single game amid continuing hamstring injuries. Like Sterns above, the talent is obvious. The role you’d like Dulcich in is clear, too. But whether it’s going to happen is another matter, and hope’s not a plan in the NFL.
Adam Trautman’s a loyal Payton soldier and played a lot more in 2023 than he was expecting, but he’s also limited as a route-runner and receiver. Denver has block-first Chris Manhertz under contract for 2024, 2023 rookie Nate Adkins as a versatile role player/fullback candidate and an intriguing young pass-catcher in Lucas Krull. None are stone-cold locks for 2024 but given the lack of production from the group in the passing game in 2023, would they really just run it back and re-sign Trautman? Interesting question given Payton’s clear fondness for the former Dayton standout.
It’s not a particularly deep free-agent class, but if Denver wanted to find more receiving punch it could consider a veteran like Hunter Henry or Gerald Everett. Or the Broncos could roll the dice and bank on getting growth from Krull and health from Dulcich.
Quarterback
You didn’t really think we’d skip quarterback altogether, did you?
The Broncos don’t have a free-agent signal-caller, but they could find themselves scanning the free-agent market nonetheless.
The Wilson saga has been covered at great length. At some point in the next month, Denver will have certainty with him, whether it’s a release (most likely), trade or some form of reunion for 2024.
Among the many questions at that point: What about Jarrett Stidham? Could this end up being an offseason where the Broncos decide they need not one but two quarterbacks?
If Wilson is gone, there are going to be several options to sort through, including in the bargain bin section of free agency.
Payton has familiarity with Jameis Winston. He’s tackled reclamation projects in the past and could try another one with any of a bevy of previous first-round picks like Sam Darnold, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz or Mac Jones. He could try to get by with the steady-if-unspectacular work of Gardner Minshew, too. That’s before considering the more expensive middle market like Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins if they don’t end up back in Tampa and Minnesota, respectively.
Should the Broncos take a quarterback early in the draft, a veteran free agent and Stidham could end up competing for the right to hold down the fort until that player is ready (or back him up).
If they don’t take a quarterback early, they’re still unlikely to begin training camp with just Stidham and Ben DiNucci. They’ll have a year’s head start learning Payton’s system over any newcomer (except Winston or another former Payton quarterback) but they’ll have to earn their spots this spring and summer. Stidham has a $7 million cap number for 2024 that splits into $5 million in savings and $2 million dead cap if he’s released.
Bottom line: If Wilson does indeed depart, expect quarterback acquisition on multiple fronts for Payton and Paton this offseason.
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