The Broncos are taking a quarterback in the draft. There, I said it.
Coach Sean Payton and general manager George Paton did not utter those words during Thursday’s press conference. Anytime executives speak this close to the first round, they might as well be senators filibustering dam construction, drone policies or guardrails on artificial intelligence.
Talking without saying anything is part of the dance.
No teams know who they are taking. Except for the Chicago Bears. They will select USC’s Caleb Williams. With the 12th overall pick, the Broncos have not made a decision. How could they without a crystal ball revealing how the board will fall in front of them?
Listening to Payton and Paton, I believe the Broncos are taking a quarterback. With a caveat. There is no guarantee it will be in the first round.
The Broncos sit in a tricky spot, tempted to mortgage their future, while also feeling the gravitational pull of a needy roster. Talk to draft experts and they believe there are three quarterbacks with true first-round grades: Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. Bo Nix and Michael Penix, if this were your auto fantasy draft, would be available next Friday.
Therein lies the issue: The Broncos require a quarterback, having started 13 since Peyton Manning retired following Super Bowl 50. But is their desperation such they will move up into the top five? Thursday, Payton repeated his belief that it is possible. Payton’s DNA is aggressive, so the idea of cutting in line remains firmly on the table.
However, it requires adoration for a single quarterback. The Broncos would likely have to trade two future first-round picks and a third to acquire the third or fourth selection from New England or Arizona. I would do it for LSU’s Jayden Daniels, who is accurate, dynamic and capable of delivering more big plays than Shakespeare. Washington likely takes him second. Is it worth moving up for North Carolina’s Drake Maye or Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy?
Without mentioning names — no one talks in specifics — Paton admitted if you believe there is quarterback capable of changing the franchise, “You do everything you can to get him.”
Maye finished poorly in his final two games last season, creating pause with his eyes and ill-advised throws. Yet, he is straight out of central casting at 6-foot-4, 223 pounds. Given a redshirt year in the pros to fix his processing, could he turn into Justin Herbert or Josh Allen? If so, it validates any gamble. With McCarthy, he is harder to evaluate because of Michigan’s reliance on the run. He is athletic, smart and coachable, but he requires a telescope projection because there are not a lot of examples of him adjusting protections or winning a game with his arm.
Nix is smart, experienced and draws comparisons to Drew Brees, though he does not have the future Hall of Famer’s arm strength or his sixth sense on how to create clean passing lanes. His grades range everywhere from late first to early third. Same for Penix. The former Washington star would win any showcase on arm strength, but there remains a suspicion his injuries will drop him.
The Broncos have tried everything at quarterback since Manning, save for a top-10 selection. It is the last card to play in this game of poker that has robbed them of draft picks and left them paying $85 million in cap space for Russell Wilson to go away.
Can the Broncos afford to trade two more future first rounders — hey, they could be say, the 26th and 32nd picks overall if Payton’s confidence aligns with his vision – for the third or fourth quarterback in this draft? The simple answer is no. The nuanced answer is they only make this move if they view the quarterback as the best or in that orbit.
Paton allowed that he sees seven-to-eight quarterbacks “who we believe can play in the league.” This provided an interesting morsel. Or buzzkill if you believe the only solution is racing into the top five.
Let’s say the Broncos stay at 12 and take tight end Brock Bowers (yes, please) or edge rusher Jared Verse. Their next trip around the sun is with the 76th pick overall. Is this where they roll the dice with South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler? He is worth a flier.
The draft represents an inexact science, a blend of timing, luck and expertise. This is the time of year when team personnel begins to rub their eyes and blink hard. The cut-ups and numbers start to blend together as you try to identify the best player among clusters.
The Broncos have to take a quarterback, don’t they? I believe they will, but the answer could just easily be Rattler on Day 2 rather than McCarthy or Maye in Round 1.
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