As the Colorado Avalanche prepare to defend the Stanley Cup, a breakdown of their first-round matchup against the Seattle Kraken.

Who has the edge?

Forwards: The two best forwards in this series wear burgundy and blue. Nathan MacKinnon’s play of the last month is the reason this is a playoff matchup in the first place. Not only did a tight division race allow him to set career-highs with 42 goals and 111 points, but it showcased his ability to ratchet up the intensity at this time of year. He scored game-winning goals in seven (!) of the Avs’ last 15 games. But are he and Mikko Rantanen enough to overshadow Seattle’s depth? The Avs’ revolving bottom six has been their weakness all year, and the Kraken can roll out a fourth line that combined for 51 goals. Daniel Sprong, Brandon Tanev and Ryan Donato will be a two-way handful for Colorado’s checking lines. Yanni Gourde brings championship experience to the middle of the ice on the third line. Those Seattle role players might do more damage than Jared McCann and Matty Beniers. Edge: Kraken.

Defensemen: Seattle is elite at shot suppression, allowing the second-fewest SOG in the league (27 per game) thanks to a blue line of bigger, fundamentally sound checking defensemen. But with Josh Manson and Cale Makar both ready to return from injuries, this series might produce a sight not seen since Nov. 5, 2022: the Avalanche’s top-five blueliners all in the lineup together. If Makar, Manson, Devon Toews, Bo Byram and Sam Girard are all playing, Jared Bednar will have to scratch either Jack Johnson or Erik Johnson every night (or go 11 and 7). Definition of a good problem. That’s enough offensive firepower to mitigate Colorado’s forward depth problem. Edge: Avalanche.

Goaltenders: The Kraken are new to this whole playoff thing, but the rule of thumb for making a deep run (unless you’re the Avalanche) is to have a goalie who can cover up other deficiencies. Philipp Grubauer is a friendly face in Denver and a liability in Seattle. The former Colorado netminder is Seattle’s best option, and his save percentage over the last two seasons (94 games) is .891. Alexandar Georgiev is also new to this, but what’s the point in doubting him again because he’s a first-timer? He just finished in a tie for the NHL lead in wins (40) and did most of it without relief from Pavel Francouz, a reliable backup who’s finally back from injury. Edge: Avalanche.

Power play: Vince Dunn is Seattle’s only true offense-oriented defenseman, so he operates the point for a below-average power play that relies almost entirely on forwards to do the finishing. It’s one area where the Kraken might feel the loss of former Avs wing Andre Burakovsky, who has missed the last two months with a lower-body injury. After embracing a bigger role in Seattle, he’s officially out for the start of the playoffs — and 14 of his 39 points (35.9%) came on the man advantage. Seattle ranks 21st in the league; Colorado ranks sixth. The top Avalanche unit gets all the attention, but watch out for a potent second unit that features three defensemen when the roster is at full health. Edge: Avalanche.

Penalty kill: Neither team ranks in the top half of the NHL, but the Avs have improved throughout the season. This is where their defensively savvy forwards such as J.T. Compher, Valeri Nichushkin and Logan O’Connor can even the playing field. Not only is the PK entering the playoffs on a second-half heater (84% in the last 43 games), but stopping power play chances under added pressure is one of the ways Colorado separated itself during the 2022 Cup run. Seattle, led by defensemen Jamie Oleksiak and Adam Larsson, is No. 21 in the league. Edge: Avalanche.

Coaching: Don’t underestimate Dave Hakstol, who has quickly lifted an expansion franchise to prominence after a last-place debut season. The only thing the Kraken had going for them last year was their irresistible logo design. It’s remarkable that they’re already something more than that team with the jersey you’re thinking about ordering. Still, Hakstol has never won a playoff series, having lost twice in the first round with Philadelphia. Jared Bednar has followed up his Stanley Cup title by hitting most of the right notes with his lineup construction this season and doing so while the Avs ended with more than 450 man games lost to injury. Edge: Avalanche.

Five things to watch

1. First-round fury

The Avs don’t just beat first-round playoff opponents. They absolutely obliterate them. Colorado has won 10 straight first-round games dating back to a 4-2 Game 3 loss to Arizona in the NHL playoff bubble. Go back one year further, and the Avs are 16-2 in their last four first-round series, outscoring opponents 80-35. The Avalanche tallied six-plus goals in six of those wins, including a pair of seven-goal games last year against a laughably outgunned Nashville Predators team. Translation: Don’t get too comfortable, Kraken fans.

2. Alexandar the Great

For the first time in his six-year NHL career, Avs goaltender Alexandar Georgiev will be between the pipes for the start of a Stanley Cup Playoff game Tuesday night in Ball Arena. The 27-year-old netminder came on in relief of Igor Shesterkin twice during the New York Rangers’ tense series against Pittsburgh last season. Considering the circumstances, his numbers (29 saves on 31 shots) were impressive, including a 19-save performance in Game 3 that nearly saved the day for the Rangers after Shesterkin was shelled with four goals in one period. Imagine what he could do in three full periods.

3. Coming in hot

There may not be a hotter team in the NHL than the Avalanche. Colorado enters the postseason having won 16 of its last 19 games (11 in regulation) to climb to the top of the Central Division standings on the very last day of the regular season — the team’s third consecutive division crown. Perhaps most impressive: All but five of those wins came on the road as part of an 11-game win streak away from Ball Arena. The Avs set franchise records in road wins (29) and points (59) this season, which bodes well for a team that will have home-ice advantage for at least the first two rounds of the Western Conference playoffs.

4. First-timers club

The Pacific Northwest generally sports an above-average facial hair quotient. But for the first time in a long time, that will include a handful of playoff beards with the Kraken making their first postseason appearance in franchise history. This is not, however, the first time a Seattle team has played for a Stanley Cup. The Seattle Metropolitans of the Pacific Coast Hockey Association were actually the first United States-based team to win the Cup way back in 1917 — when hockey associations couldn’t even agree on rudimentary things like forward passing in the neutral zone or how many players were allowed on the ice at a given time.

5. Rookie on the rise

The Avalanche may eclipse the Kraken in star power several times over, but Seattle has the only player likely to win one of the NHL’s major awards, with Matty Beniers a shoo-in for the Calder Trophy awarded to the league’s top rookie. The 20-year-old center — chosen second overall in the 2021 draft — appeared in 80 games in his first full NHL season with 24 goals and 33 assists as the runaway rookie leader in points (57) and plus/minus (+14). But only one of those points, an assist, came against Colorado in the teams’ three matchups.

— Matt Schubert, The Denver Post

Predictions

Bennett Durando, Avalanche beat writer: You’re tired of hearing about how this Avalanche team isn’t the machine that throttled the West a year ago. The Avs will run into more problems en route to the Cup — especially now that we know Gabriel Landeskog won’t suddenly show up in skates — but not until later rounds. It’s been fun, Seattle. Avs in five.

Mark Kiszla, sports columnist: The way I figure it, the Kraken will tap out early, begging for mercy, after a barrage of hat tricks by Nathan MacKinnon. Avs in three.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Philipp Grubauer returns to Ball Arena for the playoffs. Along with all of Gruby’s playoff demons. If the Avalanche had Landy and Makar at even 90% health, this wouldn’t be close. But they don’t, so … best buckle up. Avs in six.

Parker Gabriel, sports reporter: The defending champs have been hot, so there’s no need for a full switch-flip now that the postseason is here. Even still, one loss and a shaky home win wouldn’t be a surprise. In the end, a relatively smooth ride to the second round. Avs in five.

Matt Schubert, deputy sports editor: It’s gotten to the point where I have to see a team actually beat the Avalanche in the first round before I believe it’s a possibility. The Kraken are a nice story. We’re glad our friends in the Emerald City will get to experience some playoff hockey — as well as some playoff heartbreak. Avs in four.

Series schedule

*if necessary

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