Trying to put the Avalanche’s 2022-23 season into perspective is more daunting and nuanced than it was a year ago.
Has something felt off, like consistency is harder to come by? Is that just the residue of high expectations after a dominant championship run combined with a high injury rate? Are the Avs about to repeat? Are they doomed to an early playoff ending?
Winning a Stanley Cup can naturally make sorting through the labels of a successful vs. unsuccessful season more challenging, especially a season as bumpy as this one. The perception has changed in Denver. So has the roster.
What hasn’t changed is that the Avalanche are one of the top teams in the West as they prepare for a sixth consecutive year of playoff hockey. They’ve come a long way to get to the point where they’re playing for something more than a playoff spot. But weirdly enough, two wins could loom over them in the final week — in a bad way.
How did the Avs get to this point? After losing in Chicago and falling to 20-17-3, they woke up Jan. 14 in sixth place in the Central, looking up at Winnipeg, Dallas, Minnesota, St. Louis and Nashville. The Jets and Stars were tied for the division lead, 14 points ahead of Colorado.
Since then, the Avs have posted the best record in the West (29-7-3), while Winnipeg has spiraled with a 16-18-2 record. Dallas is 19-10-7 since then, doubling its overtime losses, which are third-most in the NHL at 14.
To say the Avs were ever truly out of the division race would be naïve. Even during the January slump, talking heads identified Colorado as the standard-bearer and the team to beat in the West. This turnaround was anticipated.
Still, it transpired in the midst of considerable adversity. Nine skaters who the Avs envision as playoff contributors (including eight who were playoff contributors last year) have missed double-digit games due to injury. Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Bo Byram, Josh Manson, Evan Rodrigues and Darren Helm had combined to miss 322 games entering Tuesday’s clash with the Oilers.
That’s not to mention the multiple injuries to backup goalie Pavel Francouz that have forced Alexandar Georgiev to shoulder a heavy load. He has more wins this season than games played in any previous season.
What are the Avs playing for this week? If this was just about clinching a playoff spot, Colorado’s best players would be sitting already. (After all, Nathan MacKinnon already has 100 points, and Mikko Rantanen has his 50 goals.)
Coach Jared Bednar changed his tune during this three-month run from “just get in.” The Avs are hunting home ice and a division crown. The latter is important because it dictates playoff matchups.
The most likely playoff possibilities at this point are Dallas (102 points), Minnesota (100), Seattle (98) and Los Angeles (100). Second and third in the Central will meet. And the first wild card will face the second-best division winner, which will likely be the Central. Seattle had seemingly solidified their place as that first wild card, but the Kings are slipping recently. Seattle is a fun, well-built expansion team ready to soak in its first playoff experience — but it isn’t all that equipped in star power or goaltending. A seven-game series against Dallas or Minnesota has more potential to become a dogfight. And Los Angeles has made life difficult for the Avs all season, so they should be rooting for Seattle not to catch the Kings.
A sneaky fourth (or fifth) option remains in play if Colorado wins the division and catches Vegas and Edmonton atop the conference. It would be a shocker; the Golden Knights (107 points) have led the West most of the season since their 13-2-0 start. But with a game in hand, the Avs could theoretically pull within a point of Vegas with two games remaining for both.
If the Avalanche pulled that off, that would set up a date with the West’s last playoff qualifier: either floundering Winnipeg or one of its surging suitors, Calgary or Nashville. The once-formidable Jets are almost preferable at this point.
What are the tiebreakers? This is the cloud that hangs over Ball Arena this week. MacKinnon saved the Avs from disaster with his overtime goal Tuesday in San Jose, but the Avs had already cost themselves some valuable clout in the standings.
When determining playoff seeding between teams with equal points, the first tiebreaker goes to the team with more regulation wins. Dallas has the edge in the Central with 36. Colorado has 34.
It could be tied. The Avalanche led 3-1 in the third period before the tanking Sharks rallied to force overtime. Nine days earlier, the Avs led Arizona by the same score in the third period. The Coyotes came back. Colorado needed a shootout to win.
Both games ended with dramatic victories, but twice, the Avs blew two-goal leads in the third period against lackluster teams. With two more regulation wins, they would be even Dallas and Vegas.
Instead, Colorado needs fortuitous help if it wishes to catch up in regulation wins. Making up that ground is unlikely this late in the season — meaning for the Avs to win the division, they need to beat Dallas clean in point total.
After regulation wins, the order of operations to break a tie continues with regulation plus overtime wins, then total wins, head-to-head record and finally team goal differential.
If the Avs end in a tie, those third periods will sting.
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