Cale Makar is 3-3 in playoff elimination games in his career. Nathan MacKinnon is 4-5, including two Game 7 overtime losses.
The Avs never once had their backs to the wall during the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Now their generational core faces an uphill climb. Trailing 3-2 to the Kraken, the Avalanche play Game 6 on Friday (7 p.m. MT, TNT) back at Seattle’s Climate Pledge Arena. Here are three keys to forcing a Game 7.
1. Drown it out, Cale. Makar will be greeted with enthusiastic loathing in his return from a one-game suspension. The Avs haven’t lost a road game in regulation since March 4. But their best player never faced a deafening boo chorus during that run. Makar claimed that “I don’t really hear it that much” when he’s on the ice. If that’s what works for him, so be it. Some embrace the villainy; others ignore it. Either way, Makar needs to be sharp in a hostile elimination atmosphere.
2. Georgiev v. Grubauer is misleading. Starting in his first playoff series, Alexandar Georgiev’s save percentage is .906. Philipp Grubauer’s is .918 for Seattle. Are the Avs really going to lose to their former goalie? Those save percentages are misleading — more indicative of the Kraken’s dominance than Grubauer’s. Since the Avalanche’s Game 3 win, they have generated 12 “high-danger” scoring chances in 100 minutes of 5-on-5 hockey, according to Natural Stat Trick. Seattle has generated 27 high-danger chances in that time. Games 4 and 5 were as close to being lopsided as a pair of one-goal games can be. Total scoring chances in those two games: 50-33, Seattle. Georgiev is doing a lot of lifting, and Grubauer is having the time of his life vacationing in net.
3. Scoring depth starts with PP2. The Avs aren’t getting much from their bottom six forwards or depth defensemen in this series, especially at 5-on-5. So if they’re going to find a way to squeak a non-Nathan MacKinnon, non-Mikko Rantanen goal past Grubauer, the best hope might be the second power-play unit. Colorado is 1 for 12 in the series, the only goal supplied by Rantanen after he stayed on for an extra shift with the second unit. But with Makar back in, PP2 should be good enough to generate an Avalanche breakthrough. No three Kraken defensemen should be able to sufficiently match up against Bo Byram, Devon Toews and Sam Girard.
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