It’s a hard thing to quantify, but there was some level of consensus that the Eastern Conference might be better than its counterpart at the start of the 2023-24 NHL season.
The West had a few great teams at the top, but the next tier and overall depth appeared to be better on the other side of the continent. As the Avalanche takes a break ahead of the NHL All-Star Game, it’s pretty clear that the opposite is true and Colorado’s path back to the Stanley Cup Final could be a treacherous one.
There were 13 teams with +2500 odds or better to win the Stanley Cup in the preseason, according to BetMGM. Eight of those teams reside in the East. The Penguins (Erik Karlsson), Hurricanes (Dmitri Orlov) and Devils (Tyler Toffoli) all made big moves to bolster talented rosters. Young, up-and-coming teams like the Red Wings, Sabres and Senators were tabbed as potential breakthrough clubs.
Seven of the 12 teams with +1800 odds or better as of Friday reside in the West, including the top two. The Avs were the betting favorites at +750 and the red-hot Oilers were next at +800.
What has changed? The Vancouver Canucks and Winnipeg Jets have far exceeded expectations, while several top teams in the East have stumbled through the first half of the season.
Vancouver began Friday tied with the Bruins atop the NHL standings, while Winnipeg checked in just behind them and level with the Avalanche (the Jets have two games in hand). The Stars were up next, so three of the top five teams in the league reside in the Central Division.
“Winnipeg, I don’t know how many people had them at the top of the conference at the start of the year,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “I’ve watched them play a lot. They are a stingy, stingy defensive team with great goaltending. … This is a very difficult team to score on.”
Toss in the Canucks and defending-champion Golden Knights and its five of the top seven. Then there’s the Oilers, who won 15 games in a row after a slow start and were into the top 10.
What does this mean for the Avalanche? If Colorado is going to make a run at a second title in three years, the Avs might have a much tougher path through the West than they did two years ago.
Let’s just start with getting out of the NHL-mandated regional tournament. The winner of the Central Division gets what could be a huge prize — not needing to beat two top-five teams just to get to the conference finals.
If the Avs finish second or third in the Central, that will likely mean needing to beat Dallas and Winnipeg in the first two rounds, while the division winner could end up with a first-round foe from a lower weight class.
Because Winnipeg and Vancouver have ascended, there’s a strong case that seven Cup contenders reside in the West. One of the division winners would likely have to play one in the first round, potentially the Kings or Oilers. The other would get a team it’s expected to advance past in short order.
The Jets are the best defensive team in the league and have handled the Avs twice. The Stars have a very similar profile to the Avalanche. While the star power advantage belongs to Colorado, Dallas is deeper up front and has a goalie with a (slightly) better track record.
It could provide a fascinating backdrop for the stretch run. The Avalanche fought like crazy last year to claim the Central Division title. Before this season began, the messaging was the Avs didn’t want to have to rely so heavily on the top players, goalie Alexandar Georgiev in particular, as the playoffs beckon in March and April.
Given how well all three teams are playing, the Colorado-Dallas-Winnipeg battle could go right to the end. Should the Avs prioritize winning the division, especially if it looks like the first-round opponent could be one of Nashville, St. Louis or Arizona?
“I don’t know if there is more emphasis (on winning the division). That has been our emphasis from the start of the year,” Bednar said. “Finish as high as we possibly can in the league standings, division standings. It’s not always the end all, be all though, because you have to be careful what you wish for.
“It’s not necessarily the team you are all season long that has success. It’s a team that hits their stride at the right time. You could come struggling out of the gates like the Edmonton Oilers, then they make some changes and now they seem like they’re unbeatable. If a team’s riding that kind of streak and that kind of confidence going into the playoffs, they’re going to be hard to beat regardless of where they sit in the standings.”
Avs star Nathan MacKinnon recently said the road to the Cup still goes through Vegas. The Avalanche could need to knock off some combination of Edmonton, Los Angeles, Winnipeg and Dallas just to get through the first two rounds, then see the Golden Knights waiting in what could be the best Western Conference Final since the 2012 champs (Los Angeles) and 2013 champs (Chicago) met with a spot in the 2014 Cup Final on the line.
Two years ago, it wasn’t a waste of eight days for the Predators in the first round as ex-Calgary coach Daryl Sutter suggested — the Avs only needed seven. The conference final was anticipated, but MacKinnon vs. Connor McDavid also turned into a sweep.
Given the improved depth in both the division and the conference, it’s hard to imagine the Avs waltzing to the Cup Final again. It could be a grueling six weeks for whichever team claws its way out of the West.
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