The first quarter of the Colorado Avalanche’s season has felt like a three-act play.

Colorado ripped off six wins in a row to begin the season, but players and coach Jared Bednar kept warning everyone that improvements were needed. Then came five losses in seven games, four of which were by four-plus goals.

The final act has looked more like what this team expects itself to be. The Avs are 7-1-1 since an embarrassing 8-2 loss at home to St. Louis. In totality, the Avalanche’s start has been a successful one.

“Even as a group, our players identified that our details weren’t tight (at 6-0),” Bednar said. “When you go through a little struggle and now you’re not getting results, guys quickly identified that, ‘Hey, we’ve got to be a lot better in a lot of different areas in order to have success.’

“Once you start having the failures, then you get guys really digging in to put more importance on the details of the game, eventually that process leads to good results.”

Colorado is atop the Central Division and firmly among anyone’s short list of Stanley Cup contenders. Here are some observations and top storylines from the first quarter-ish after a 15-6-1 start.

NOTE: Statistics are up to date as of Dec. 1.

1. Cale Makar is one of the most accomplished young defensemen in NHL history, but this might just be a new level of dominance, even for him. He’s been the best defenseman in the league, as measured by points or Evolving Hockey’s goals above replacement (GAR). He’s been the best player in the league, as measured by Average Game Score (AGS) and Net Rating, two all-inclusive metrics developed by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn.

2. The penalty kill has been the biggest team-wide storyline. Colorado is fifth in the league on the PK. The Avs haven’t finished in the top five since 2017-18, when they were fourth. They are 12th over the past five seasons combined.

3. Logan O’Connor has been the MVP of the depth guys. He had the three straight games with a shorthanded goal early, but both lines he has played on have been spectacular at possessing the puck when he’s out there. The Avs have also spent at least 47 minutes on the penalty kill with either O’Connor or Andrew Cogliano (or both) on the ice. Colorado is even on the scoreboard in those minutes.

4. Makar could be MVP of the league, let alone the team, but Mikko Rantanen held that distinction earlier this season. He’s cooled off slightly, but Rantanen is still on pace for 44 goals and 108 points. He’s also had more multi-point games than pointless games. He might not be a first-team All-Star at this point, but he’d have a strong case as one of the top four wings.

5. Everything about Nathan MacKinnon’s statistical profile is strong, save for two “issues.” He’s shooting 1-for-30 from the field on the power play, and the goalies are stopping fewer than 89% of the shots when he’s on the ice at 5-on-5. Both of those things are extreme outliers from MacKinnon’s career resume. Bednar gave a coded “bet against him getting hot at your own risk” message recently. He might be right.

6. Makar, MacKinnon and Rantanen have been the best three players in the Central, according to Net Rating. Valeri Nichushkin is eighth. Five teams in the division (not named Dallas or Nashville) don’t have a player above Nichushkin.

7. Nichushkin has been an elite player since the birth of his baby, who arrived later than expected. Bednar acknowledged that was likely weighing on him. He’s been the two-way monster at even strength that’s been a hallmark in his career, and he’s become a go-to weapon in front of the net. Nichushkin has six tip-in goals, which is already the third-most in franchise history (eight is the record, though shot types have only been tracked since 2009).

8. The power play isn’t where the club expects it to be overall, but the Avs are 11-for-40 in the past nine games (27.5%), with at least one goal in every contest. Colorado has won or drawn in the special teams battle in 18 of 22 games. Given how great this team can be at even strength, that’s a pretty strong recipe for winning.

9. One concern to monitor on the power play: The Avs have allowed 25 scoring chances while on the man advantage. That’s five more than any other team in the league.

10. The one big lineup decision on the power play with Arrturi Lehkonen injured has been Jonathan Drouin or Ryan Johansen on PP1. The Avs are getting more shot attempts and shots on goal per 60 minutes with Johansen out there. He’s second on the team in power-play goals. But the Avs are scoring more goals per 60 with Drouin out there. Bednar was looking for a little more creative juice, and Drouin has provided some of that.

11. The second-best defenseman on the team according to GAR, and third-best according to AGS and Net Rating is … Jack Johnson? GAR penalizes more for taking too many penalties/not drawing enough, so Byram is obviously going to rate poorly.

12. Devon Toews has been on the ice for seven power-play goals against, the most on the team, but his goals against per 60 minutes is eighth-lowest among the top 20 guys in the league in PK ice time. (He’s 12th at 75:13) Net Rating has about 30 defensemen rated ahead of Toews this season but still projects him to finish just outside the top 15.

13. Caleb Jones and Joel Kiviranta have been shrewd depth additions and a big help with Samuel Girard and Artturi Lehkonen out of the lineup. Something to watch, though: The underlying numbers have trended in the wrong direction for both, but particularly for Jones. Both have remained a plus in actual on-ice goals, though.

14. Here’s a wild Makar stat: There are 21 players in the league with 17 or more even-strength points, including the Avs’ big three producers. Makar also has three shorthanded points. The other 20 players on that list … have combined for three shorthanded points.

15. Miles Wood and Ross Colton have been seamless fits on the third line. Wood has been a revelation on the penalty kill — one goal for, one goal allowed in 28 minutes. He played 11:04 on the PK in 402 games for New Jersey.

16. Alexandar Georgiev started out scorching hot, had a mini-slump, and has been strong again of late. Sounds a lot like the team at large. He’s 12th in goals saved above expected among the 40 goalies with 10 or more games played, according to MoneyPuck. Another thing to monitor: He leads goalies with 19 starts. A big part of that was Colorado’s very friendly early-season schedule, with only one set of back-to-backs.

17. Ivan Prosvetov has been quite good in limited duty. He’s fifth in the league in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. Expect him to get more than three starts in the next 22 games, even if both goaltenders remain healthy.

18. Put the two goaltenders together, and the Avs have the eighth-best goals saved above expected in the league. Given this team’s offensive firepower, if Colorado continues to get top-third goaltending and top-third penalty killing, let alone top-five, the Avs are going to make a run at the Presidents’ Trophy.

19. Riley Tufte has been the offensive star for the Colorado Eagles in the AHL, with 10 goals in 14 games when he hasn’t been up with the Avs. The Eagles have been a mid-pack club so far. One recent positive: 2021 first-round pick Oskar Olausson started slow but has revved it up a bit with five goals in his past 10 games.

20. Prospect of the first quarter has to be Nikolai Kovalenko, who is tied for sixth in the KHL in points per game (24 in 21 games). The others in front of him are all veterans. Kovalenko missed some time with an injury, but he’s on track to be one of the best young players in that league, and a wild card for the Avalanche when his season ends and he arrives in Denver.

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