After dropping down to third place in the Central Division at the end of the regular season, the Colorado Avalanche begins the Stanley Cup Playoffs on the road against the Winnipeg Jets. Here’s a breakdown of their first-round matchup.

Who has the edge?

Forwards

The Avs definitely have the two best forwards in this series, and they might have five of the top … seven? Eight? It’s actually five of the top six, according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s Net Rating. The Jets are very deep up front — they have 13 forwards with double-digit goals in the NHL this season. Tyler Toffoli and Sean Monahan have been strong additions. The analytics don’t love some of their best guys though — Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor both are sub-46% in expected goals for. Where Nikolaj Ehlers plays has been a season-long storyline. Colorado might finally be healthy, so will its depth hold up? Or will the Avs get Kraken’d again?

Edge: Avalanche

Defensemen

What to make of the Jets defense corps is a fascinating question and might swing this series. Josh Morrissey is either very good or elite, and Dylan DeMelo has been underrated for much of his career. But their expected goals numbers compared to the on-ice ones this season scream being propped up by the Vezina Trophy favorite behind them. The Jets have seven or eight guys who could play, and the underlying numbers say not playing Nate Schmidt would be a mistake. The Avs, on paper, have the best defense corps in the NHL. Are they getting weighed down by their goalie, or are a few guys not quite at their best of late? Colorado needs this to be a big edge, not a slight one.

Edge: Avalanche

Goaltenders

This is the biggest disparity in any category leading into the series. If it ends up being the biggest disparity, the Jets will likely advance. Connor Hellebuyck is going to win the Vezina Trophy. He’d be an advantage in any series, but Alexandar Georgiev’s recent wobbles exacerbate things. Georgiev was 12-4-2 with a .916 save percentage from late January to late March, but he allowed four-plus five times and was pulled twice in the six starts after that run. The Avs will need Justus Annunen at some point in this series if this mini-slump continues. Hellebuyck is probably going to steal at least one game. If it’s more than that, and Georgiev is still wobbly, the Avs will be in serious trouble.

Edge: Jets

Power play

Which version of the Colorado special teams is going to show up? The Avs have a top-10 power play over the course of the full season. Over the last month? It’s closer to 20th than 10th. It seemed like missing Valeri Nichushkin was the issue, but his return from a lower-body injury has not flipped a proverbial switch. The Jets use PP2 more than the Avs, but the mainstays on PP1 are Morrissey, Scheifele and Connor and two of Monahan, Toffoli and Gabe Vilardi. If Hellebuyck gets rolling in this series, the Avs are going to need to solve him when they have an extra guy on the ice.

Edge: Avalanche

Penalty kill

Just like the power play, the Avs have been the better of these two teams on the penalty kill over the course of the entire season. But lately? Woof. Colorado was 36 of 38 on the PK from the trade deadline until April 5. Then the Avs allowed nine PPGs in four games. If the Avs have more of the puck at even strength but the Jets steal a game or two on the power play, that’s the other obvious way for Winnipeg to advance beyond just frustrating Colorado with a strong defensive effort. The Jets haven’t been particularly great on the PK this season, but the goalie could certainly make it look great in a small sample.

Edge: Jets

Coaching

Rick Bowness has been an NHL head coach for parts of 14 seasons, nearly twice as many as Jared Bednar. The Avs coach has won more playoff series, but trying to wrap up Bowness’ coaching career in a sentence or two is nearly impossible. He helped the Stars get to the Stanley Cup Final in the bubble in 2020, then didn’t win a round for two years and got fired. If he goes on a deep run with this Jets team, his legacy as an NHL head coach could change completely. Bowness had Bednar’s number during the regular season — three wins, no losses, 17-4 in goals scored. Will that matter? Will Bednar change goalies at some point if the series is slipping away?

Edge: Even

Five storylines to watch

1. Lopsided season series

Judging by the results between these teams during the regular season, this is a nightmare first-round matchup for Colorado. Winnipeg started by winning 4-2 at Ball Arena on Dec. 7, then won again 6-2 on Dec. 16 at the Canada Life Centre. The topper came in a 7-0 rout over the Avs in Denver last weekend, resulting in a plus-13 margin for the Jets over three games. If the Jets didn’t have the Avs’ attention at the start of the season, it’s safe to say they do now.

2. Avs’ goalie question

Alexandar Georgiev was in net for that 7-0 disaster, allowing four goals on 15 shots in an ugly first period before being pulled. Georgiev’s goals against average is 3.02, which ranks 24th out of 34 goalies with at least 40 games played. He’s played well at times, but overall he’s been inconsistent, and if that trend in net continues the Avs could be in big trouble. By contrast, when the Avs won the Stanley Cup two years ago, goalie Darcy Kuemper had a 2.54 GAA in the regular season.

3. Colorado’s high-powered offense

The Avs ranked first in the NHL with 3.68 goals per game and first with 302 total goals;.Colorado’s also been solid on the power play, ranking fifth at 24.5%. Those stats are highlighted by an MVP-caliber season from Nathan MacKinnon, who led the team with 51 goals and was second in the NHL in total points at 140, setting a new franchise record. MacKinnon will need to continue his other-worldly play in order for the Avs to get past the Jets and make a deep playoff run.

4. Face-off ability

Neither the Jets nor the Avs have been particularly good in the face-off circle. While the league leaders were the Penguins at 54.6%, the Avs ranked 23rd at 47.9%, while the Jets were right behind them at 24th at 47.6%. It’s a detail that could be meaningful in close games. Of players who have played at least 50 games, Mikko Rantanen’s been the Avs’ best faceoff man at 53.8%. Puck possession of faceoffs in the defensive end will be key, especially considering Georgiev’s inconsistencies.

5. The Makar factor

While MacKinnon headlines the Colorado forwards, Cale Makar is turning in another career season on the blue line. He ranked second among NHL defensemen with 21 goals, 69 assists and 90 points. In a recent NHLPA poll, 56.4% of players said Makar would be the blueliner they’d want on their team in a must-win game, and he was also voted the top breakout passer by his peers. Makar, the winner of the Norris Trophy in 2021-22, is again in the conversation to win the award for the league’s best defenseman.

Staff predictions

Corey Masisak, Avalanche beat writer: Which Avalanche team is going to arrive in Manitoba this weekend? The one that looked like a war machine and ripped off nine straight wins after the trade deadline? Or the the version that lost to Edmonton, Dallas, Winnipeg and Vegas in a span of 10 days? This is, by the numbers, the closest first-round series of the eight. This core has never won a Game 7, but doing so in spite of the White Out at Canada Life Centre would be a significant accomplishment. Avalanche in seven.

Troy Renck, sports columnist: The Avs found some traction against a toothless Oilers team on Thursday. The problem? The Jets are not the Oilers. This series provides issues because of the Avs defense. The Jets outscored the Avs 17-4 in winning all three games against them this season. Is it too much to ask for Alexander Georgiev to steal a game in this series? We know Connor Hellebuyck can. The Jets goalie is favored to win the Vezina Trophy. Styles make fights. And the Avs do not match up well against the Jets. Jets in seven.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: After that 7-0 hiding, the Avs are playing for pride, chasing a ‘chip with a chip on each shoulder. Sounds weird, right? At this point, you’ll take any edge you can get. On paper, it’s a purist’s dream: Colorado’s killer offense, led by Nathan MacKinnon, trading paint with arguably the best goaltender in the league (Hellebuyck) and a scrappy defense. But depth matters now. The regular season’s about your top two lines. The postseason’s about the bottom two. The Avs’ ’22 champs had 11 skaters who cracked double digits in goals. Winnipeg in ’24 is bringing 13 to the party. MacKinnon can’t do this by himself. I mean, he could. But he won’t. Jets in six.

Kyle Newman, sports reporter: Alexandar Georgiev will play much better than he has down the stretch of the regular season, and Nathan MacKinnon will win a couple games by himself to will Colorado past a grueling first-round opponent. The Avs defense will look more like its dependable midseason self than the sketchy version that appeared as Colorado lost four of its final six games. After this series, Colorado may not have enough gas left in the tank to win a second-round series, but a victory in Game 7 at the Canada Life Centre will be a momentum boost after how the Jets whooped them in the regular season. Avalanche in seven.

Lori Punko, deputy sports editor: The Avs have the star power in this series with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. Unfortunately for Colorado, Winnipeg has expected-Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net. If the Avs can consistently score on Hellebuyck, and that’s a big if after the Jets’ 7-0 shutout last week, there is still the issue of Alexandar Georgiev and his uneven play. The series may just come down to MacKinnon vs. Hellebuyck. My money is on MacKinnon. Avalanche in six.

Series schedule

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