Scouting season is in full swing.
With the guarantee that Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog will miss next season, Colorado’s front office is allowed to exceed the salary cap by his average annual contract and can therefore tinker with $7 million extra this offseason. That’s the perk of a bad situation. The constraint is that for now, the Avs must count on Landeskog returning in 2024-25, no matter how unpredictable his specific form of knee injury is.
That means they must be careful to deal mostly in one-year contracts, lest they end up trapped over the cap a year from now and are forced to make trades without leverage.
The upcoming class of unrestricted free agents is a relatively weak one, narrowing Colorado’s options even more. General manager Chris MacFarland probably won’t find his next second-line center in free agency. The best way to land a player of that caliber is via trade with a non-contender harboring a good center with one year left (Adam Henrique) or with term (Boone Jenner, Nick Schmaltz).
Still, the LTIR extra cap space allows the Avs to restructure their forward depth after it cost them in the playoffs. Who’s most likely to seek a one-year contract? One: Someone like Jack Johnson or Andrew Cogliano, an older Stanley Cup-chasing player. Two: Someone like Evan Rodrigues, with the potential to land a steeper salary with term but needing a bridge deal to prove that value.
James van Riemsdyk staying in Philadelphia was one of the biggest surprises of the trade deadline in March. He is a four-time 50-point scorer lacking a ring entering his age-34 season. He’ll be way more affordable in free agency than his previous $7 million cap hit would indicate.
Evgenii Dadonov, also 34, transformed after a mid-season trade from Montreal to Dallas. In the playoffs for just the second time in his nine-year NHL career, he had nine points in 13 games in the first two rounds, helping the Stars to the Western Conference Finals. Or there’s Gustav Nyquist, another wing with three 50-point seasons. After being traded from Columbus to Minnesota this season, he’s seeking a new contract and turns 34 in September. He also hasn’t won a Cup.
If the Avs want high-risk, high-reward, Max Pacioretty also falls under the category of aging Cup-chaser. He will be theoretically affordable this offseason after a brief, unfortunate stay in Carolina. He has only played 44 games the last two years, and after getting traded from Vegas to the Hurricanes, he returned from a torn Achilles, scored three goals in five games then tore his Achilles again. When healthy, Pacioretty, 34, has averaged nearly a point per game and a goal every two games the last four years. He would be a top-six wing but another injury headache.
Ex-Blackhawks Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane are the biggest names entering free agency at the twilight of their careers, both of whom are already packed with championship experience.
Aiming a few years younger? Another Chicago pending UFA looks enticing. Andreas Athanasiou can play center or wing, and his skating speed makes him a fit with the Avalanche’s style. He’s coming off a 20-goal, 20-assist bounce-back season that ranks second-best in his career statistically. But he needs to prove he can string together consecutive years with that productivity. He might be the type of forward open to something short-term, especially after playing for a tanker last year.
Solid depth scorers are available everywhere, including some for whom a short-term deal wouldn’t be a bad thing. Heavy center Nick Bjugstad’s 2022-23 AAV was $900,000. He amassed 17 goals between Arizona and Edmonton. Conor Sheary’s was $1.5 million in Washington. He potted 15 goals. Noel Acciari’s was $1.25 million. He scored 14 between St. Louis and Toronto. (If the Avs wanted to dip their toes into the Maple Leafs’ well of looming instability, old friend Alex Kerfoot is also a pending UFA, though more likely seeking term.)
The Pacioretty equivalent among players looking for a prove-it deal would be Montreal’s Sean Monahan, whose injuries have made recent seasons wobbly. He’s 28 on an expiring contract with a $6.375 million cap hit. A healthy Monahan could even slot in at 2C — he has 212 career goals but only 24 in the last three years.
Remaining playoff predictions
The Sun Belt Tournament started this week, with Hurricanes-vs.-Panthers and Stars-vs.-Golden Knights matchups upending the conference finals in a year when Toronto and Edmonton seemed destined to play for the Cup.
On honor code, I promise I’m writing these picks before the puck drops for both Game 1s. In fact, I’m writing these picks from Ball Arena while covering Nuggets vs. Lakers.
Canes in five. Golden Knights in seven. Then in the Cup Final, Knights in six. After Connor McDavid’s runaway regular-season MVP, the No. 2 pick from his draft, Jack Eichel, takes home the Conn Smythe.
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