Kiz: The Broncos live in the NFL’s toughest neighborhood. The AFC West is stacked with talented quarterbacks. All four teams in the division have every reason to believe they can make the postseason. In the league’s 14-team playoff format, how likely is it we’ll see three participants from the AFC West, and how many wins do the Broncos need to get in?
O’Halloran: The expansion to seven teams per conference that make the playoffs makes it possible that all four teams from one division can qualify. But the league is too balanced for that to happen. Still, three should be the expectation. In the Broncos’ favor is that the AFC East may qualify only Buffalo, the AFC North only Cincinnati (even if Deshaun Watson plays for Cleveland this season) and the AFC South only Indianapolis (Matt Ryan gives the Colts an edge over Ryan Tannehill’s Titans). A record of at least 10-7 should be enough for the Broncos to be a wild card.
Kiz: At the risk of oversimplifying the Broncos’ quest for their first playoff berth since the 2015 NFL season, my mantra for 2022 is going to be: Ten wins and they’re in. The L.A. Rams, Arizona and San Francisco all came out of the NFC West a year ago with at least 10 victories apiece. So what do you see as Denver’s path to 10 victories, and how many times must the Broncos win against tough division foes to make it a realistic possibility?
O’Halloran: The Broncos’ path to 10 wins includes a sweep of the AFC South (Houston and Indianapolis at home, Jacksonville in London and at Tennessee). They must beat the New York Jets and Carolina — the Broncos’ two games against 2021 last-place colleagues. Go at least 3-3 in the division. That gives them nine wins and then one victory against Seattle, San Francisco, Arizona or the Rams. As Kiz and I have talked about since the schedule came out, taking care of the AFC South will determine which AFC West team makes the playoffs.
Kiz: In a league where quarterbacks rule, I start the evaluation of every NFL game by determining which team has the better quarterback. I rank the QBs in the AFC West this way: 1) Patrick Mahomes; 2) Russell Wilson; 3) Justin Herbert, and 4) Derek Carr. If Wilson ranks any lower than second on that board, I’m far from certain the Broncos can win 10 games. What say you? Should we expect this Denver offense to average 25-plus points per game?
O’Halloran: I have it Mahomes, Herbert, Wilson and Carr … and would put them all among the top 12 in the NFL. Whew, what a division this should be with these veteran and young passers having regular duels. Wilson has received the bulk of the attention and rightly so — he has been a human sparkplug for the entire organization. But I think the difference for the Broncos will be their defense. If they can make more plays (sacks and takeaways), that will allow Wilson and Co., to reach the 25-point standard.
