Colorado State (2-2) at Utah State (2-3, 0-1 MW)
When/where: 6 p.m. Saturday/Merlin Olsen Field
TV/Radio: Mountain West Network/1600 AM, 104.3 HD2
BetMGM Line: CSU -3, 62.5 over/under
Weather: 69 degrees, clear
Five storylines
Fireworks show: If ever there was a game to take the over, this is it. Not only do CSU and Utah State enter Saturday with two of the top 50 scoring offenses in FBS, they also sport two of the bottom 20 scoring defenses. While CSU has shown improvement on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the second half at MTSU, the Rams are still 116th in scoring defense at 34.0 points allowed per game. That’s just one spot behind Utah State at 33.8.
Finishing strong: Of course, there is some context behind those defensive numbers. Since giving up 93 points combined in losses to No. 13 Washington State and Colorado, CSU has allowed just 43 in wins over Middle Tennessee State (31-23) and FCS Utah Tech (41-20). In those two wins, the Rams allowed just nine second-half points combined. Utah State, on the other hand, has played just one Power 5 team (Iowa), got bulldozed by Air Force (39-21) and James Madison (45-38), and needed an extra point block to escape winless UConn with a 34-33 win last week.
Kamara closing in: If the Rams are going to slow down the Mountain West’s fourth-best pass attack, defensive end Mohamed Kamara will likely have something to do with it. The 6-foot-1, 250-pound senior has been a menace off the edge, racking up the second-most sacks (6½) in FBS despite playing just 3½ games due to a targeting suspension and CSU’s early September bye. With the Aggies giving up 2.6 sacks per game, Kamara is a good bet to extend his sack streak to five consecutive games.
Mr. 300: CSU QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has topped 300 yards passing in each of his three starts, including a 462-yard, four-touchdown showing last week vs. Utah Tech. His insertion into the starting lineup, along with the play of senior receiver Tory Horton (FBS-best 135 receiving yards/game), is a major reason why the Rams passing game has made the biggest yards-per-game leap (186.7) in FBS. There’s just one issue with the redshirt freshman: Fowler-Nicolosi has thrown at least one interception in all four of his appearances this season, including two last week, and has seven total.
Losing in Logan: It’s been 10 years since Utah State joined the Mountain West, and in that time CSU has won just once in five visits to Merlin Olsen Field. The lone win came in 2017, when the Rams beat the Aggies 27-14 en route to their last bowl bid. Only one of CSU’s four losses in Logan came by fewer than two scores: the infamous 26-24 heartbreaker in 2021 that saw Steve Addazio’s Rams completely mismanage a last-minute field goal attempt that sailed wide left.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter:Â CSU 35, USU 21
Tory Horton is an unstoppable force, no matter how many holes the CSU defense has. Add in the emergence of tight end Dallin Holker as a vertical threat, and the sum is a CSU offense that is finding its groove at just the right time. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi needs to avoid dumb interceptions, and if he does that, CSU should run away with this thing.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: CSU 31, USU 30
The eye test likes the Rams, who endured wacky weather delays last weekend to pull away from Utah Tech. The eye test hates the Aggies’ defense, which is allowing more than a field goal (3.07 points) per opponent drive — that’s baaaaaaad — and gave up 33 to UConn. Weird stuff happens whenever the Rams turn up in Logan, but Mo Kamara and Tory Horton should be the best two players on the field. And oughta be enough to yank the Rammies over the line.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: CSU 38, USU 28
Tory Horton is going to be a problem. Same with tight end Dallin Holker. And sophomore receiver Justus Ross-Simmons. Translation: The Rams are going to score — a lot. As long as the defense makes a few stops, CSU’s tough luck in Logan comes to an end.
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