Oregon State (6-2, 3-2 Pac-12) at Colorado (4-4, 1-4)

When/where: Saturday, 8 p.m./Folsom Field

TV/Radio: ESPN/850 AM, 94.1 FM

BetMGM Line: Oregon State -13.5, 62.5 over/under

Weather: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Five storylines

Run the darn ball: With just 629 rushing yards, the Buffs rank 128th in FBS. At least they’re ahead of Colorado State, which ranks 129th, but the bottom line is CU’s offense is extremely predictable. Offensive coordinator Sean Lewis and newly named co-offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur need to commit to running the ball, especially on third-and-short, and using its stable of backs, two of whom Coach Prime brought in. Houston transfer Alton McCaskill has 14 carries for 59 yards in ’23; Kentucky transfer Kavosiey Smoke has two carries for zero yards.

Protecting No. 2: The Buffs rank 129th among FBS teams in sacks allowed with 42, with a national-worst 381 yards lost on those plays. QB Shedeur Sanders was running for his life in last week’s loss to UCLA at the Rose Bowl, getting sacked seven times and pummeled a whole lot more. He needed an injection at halftime to ease the pain, then limped out of the postgame news conference. He needed several days off to recover. If the Buffs want to go bowling, this trend has to reverse immediately. That won’t be easy against an Oregon State pass rush averaging 3.25 sacks/game.

The Beavers’ X-Factor: Oregon State goes as QB DJ Uiagalelei goes. A highly-touted prep prospect out of powerhouse St. John Bosco High School in SoCal, Uiagalelei was 22-6 at a starter at Clemson from 2020-22 before transferring to Corvallis. He struggled in last week’s loss to Arizona, completing only 53.3% of his passes for 218 yards. When he’s at his best, the Beavers are a solid offense. But he’ll need to stay away from Buffs’ star corner Travis Hunter, who had two highlight-reel picks against UCLA.

Bowl eligibility tracker: Asked about his team’s chances of getting two wins over the final four games to become bowl eligible, Coach Prime said he doesn’t “give a damn about no bowl game,” which is a weird sentiment to have considering that would be a big box to check for the first-year coach’s rebuild — not to mention more practices to develop his roster. CU will surely be underdogs in the final three games (vs. Arizona, then at Washington State and at Utah) as well, so the Buffs need a couple of upsets to hit the coveted six-win mark.

Series history: The Buffs are 6-6 all-time against the Beavers, but were blasted 42-9 last year in Corvallis. The last time OSU came to Boulder in 2021, CU pulled off a dramatic 37-34 win in double overtime after OSU hit a field goal to tie the game on the final play of the fourth quarter. That marked the second straight OT game at Folsom Field between the conference foes, as CU fell 41-34 in an extra period in 2018.

Predictions

Kyle Newman, sportswriter: Oregon State 28, CU 21

I haven’t seen anything to convince me that the Buffs will either commit to the run enough to get it going, or that they have the blocking capability to do so even if Sean Lewis desired. Factor in OSU coming off a letdown loss to Arizona last week, and the Beavers should be hungry enough to find a way to contain the Buffs’ one-dimensional offense.

Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Oregon State 37, CU 28

The Beavs’ first-team offensive line averages 306 pounds. CU’s probably starters on the Buffs’ defensive line average 275 and … yeah, you can see where this is going. Shedeur Sanders can’t beat you if he’s stuck chilling on the sidelines. I can see Oregon State taking Oregon’s game plan and running with it. Literally. Like all night.

Matt Schubert, sports editor: CU 34, Oregon State 31

A November tradition at Folsom Field: A superior team comes to Boulder, gets off to a wobbly start at altitude, then plays catch-up the rest of the game until falling just short late. It happened to Oregon State and Washington in 2021, and Stanford and Washington in 2019. It will happen again late Saturday night.

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