Colorado State (5-6, 3-4 Mountain West) at Hawaii (4-8, 2-5)
When/where: 9 p.m. Saturday/Clarence T.C. Ching Complex
TV/Radio: Spectrum Sports/ESPN Honolulu, 104.3 HD2
BetMGM Line: CSU -5.5, 54.5 over/under
Weather: Around 80 degrees with slight wind.
Five storylines
Almost bowling: Overheard in the underbelly of Canvas Stadium a few weeks ago: CSU AD Joe Parker, prior to the Rams’ win over San Diego State, remarked to a fellow staffer that, “If we can win these next three games, this season could be special.” He’s right. And now after beating the Aztecs and hanging on to defeat Nevada last week, CSU is one win away from its first bowl game since 2017. Head coach Jay Norvell needs to avoid a letdown in Honolulu, because a postseason berth would be a huge building block.
Horton eyes 1K: CSU star wideout Tory Horton’s dealt with multiple injuries this year, including leg/ankle issues and a hip pointer. But that hasn’t stopped him from again being CSU’s top threat in the passing game, and now the senior is 50 yards away from his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Horton has 87 receptions for 950 yards with seven TDs, and ranks No. 21 nationally among FBS wideouts in receiving yards per game (86.4) and is third in receptions per game (7.9).
Hard-hitting Howell: Jack Howell — son of former CSU/NFL safety John Howell and brother of soccer star Jaelin Howell — has lived up to his family name again this year. After leading the nation’s FBS defensive backs with 108 total tackles in 2022, the junior is No. 2 nationally in total tackles this year at 106. A stopper in the second level who’s also shown vast improvement in coverage, Howell is the first Rams DB to post consecutive/multiple 100-tackle seasons since defensive stats became official in 2000.
BFN’s ball security: Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi let Nevada back into the game last week by throwing a pick-six on the final play of the first half, and his poor decisions with the football have been a common thread tied to the Rams’ fortunes this year. The redshirt freshman QB has to take care of the football against Hawaii, whose only chance to keep CSU from a bowl game is if the QB gifts them multiple interceptions and correspondingly short fields. BFN’s thrown 20 TDs to 15 INTs this year; he needs to be more accurate with his throws and diagnose coverages better against a Hawaii secondary that’s not very good.
Coaching Connection: Hawaii head coach Timmy Chang was on Jay Norvell’s staff for five seasons at Nevada, and Chang was slated to be CSU’s tight ends coach before landing the job in Honolulu. Hawaii’s associate head coach/special teams coordinator Thomas Sheffield was also on that Nevada staff and then came to CSU with Norvell before following Chang to the Rainbow Warriors. So there will be no shortage of familiarity with concepts and game-planning between the two staffs.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: CSU 35, Hawaii 28
Pack your bags, Rams fans: This team is going bowling. Just like last week against Nevada, CSU starts fast and then holds on in the second half to defeat the Rainbow Warriors, with tight end Dallin Holker’s TD catch and a strong running game the difference. If Jay Norvell sticks around for a while in Fort Collins, we might look back at the close to this season as a turning point.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Hawaii 30, CSU 28
Like Pullman on a miserable Friday night, not much good happens in Honolulu if you’re visiting in late November. (Other than the weather.) The Warriors are 11-1 in regular-season home finales dating back to 2011, including a wild 50-45 win over the Rams under the Daz back in ’21. As a former Jay Norvell assistant, Hawaii coach Timmy Chang knows darn well what’s coming. And while Rams fans are hoping he won’t play spoiler, history says otherwise.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: CSU 34, Hawaii 27
It’s difficult to predict how a team will handle a trip to Honolulu. Things didn’t go well for Air Force (27-13 loss) earlier this month, and red-hot New Mexico State (20-17 loss) gave away a two-touchdown lead in September. No doubt, the Rainbow Warriors will have CSU’s attention with a bowl bid on the line. Freshman RB Justin Marshall looks like the real deal. Feed him early and often against a bad Hawaii run defense and the Rams go bowling.
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